For businesses involved in importing and exporting, global conditions matter. Developing events in the Middle East are already starting to show through in how goods move and how prices behave. That creates real challenges for businesses that rely on trade and global supply chains.

For New Zealand importers and exporters, the most immediate effects are being felt through shipping logistics and costs. Across many supply chains, businesses are seeing a combination of:

• changes to shipping routes where vessels are avoiding higher risk areas, leading to longer and less predictable transit times
• higher fuel and insurance costs flowing through freight pricing
• less certainty around delivery dates

As an example, since late 2023, many major shipping lines have avoided the Red Sea and Suez Canal (which in normal conditions handle roughly 12–15% of global seaborne trade), instead routing vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. Customers report this has added around 10–14 days to transit times. Several major carriers had begun to cautiously return limited services to the route, only to suspend or reverse those plans again as security risks increased.

For many export and import businesses, some of these impacts show up as inventory being tied up for longer than planned, cash being locked up in goods that are still in transit, and working capital coming under pressure.

Additionally, timing matters as much as cost. Exporters and importers buying and selling goods for a specific season often have very little room for delay. This is particularly true for perishable goods, where timing and condition are extremely important. Late arrivals are not just a cost issue; they can mean missed sales, lost opportunities, and impacts on customer relationships that cannot easily be rectified. 

Air freight has also been affected; with airspace closures and rerouting adding time, cost, and uncertainty to urgent shipments.

Beyond the more immediate impacts, there are broader effects that tend to build over time, including:

• Higher fuel and energy costs feeding into transport, manufacturing, and distribution. Oil prices reacted quickly over the weekend, with Brent crude rising around 7–8%, reinforcing how rapidly geopolitical risk can feed through into business costs.
• Pricing assumptions becoming harder to hold as costs shift, including currency volatility. As an example, there is significant disruption to transit through the Strait of Hormuz (a narrow shipping corridor between Iran and Oman), and around one fifth of global oil supply moves through there meaning even short term disruption or heightened risk can quickly impact energy prices.
• Uncertainty affecting business confidence, costs and growth in key New Zealand export markets, such as Asia, which could have spillover effects that reduce demand for New Zealand goods and services.
• Customers adjusting ordering patterns, a behaviour many New Zealand businesses will recall from COVID days, and one that was very difficult to navigate. 

Businesses are clearly dealing with a tremendous amount of volatility and uncertainty right now. Rapid changes make forecasting harder, cash flow becomes less predictable, currency movements more difficult to plan around, and committing to growth or investment can feel riskier.

In environments like this, practical steps can help:

• Staying in close contact with suppliers and customers to surface issues early.
• Talking regularly with logistics providers and insurers about capacity and risk.
• Keeping across market intelligence from agencies such as Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) and New Zealand Trade and Enterprise (NZTE).
• Having early conversations with banks and financial partners about working capital and risk management structures. 

While the current environment remains challenging, staying informed, staying connected, and being willing to adjust plans can help businesses remain resilient.

At BNZ, our Trade Specialists are available for customers who want to talk through their situation and consider the options in front of them. In uncertain times, an early conversation can make a difference.