BNZ‑commissioned analysis by Deloitte, co‑authored with The Nature Conservancy Aotearoa New Zealand, highlights how coordinated action could unlock private investment in restoration, for broad community, resilience and ecological benefits. 

It finds:

• Demand for high-integrity nature-based carbon credits is strong and growing – with carbon markets projected to grow from $2.5bn today to up to $35.5bn by 2030.
• New Zealand has strong credibility and brand advantage, but at present, local supply is limited and risks missing this opportunity.
• The current barriers are solvable, and coordinated action would help scale credible supply and instil market confidence, attracting long-term investment that supports restoration, strengthens biodiversity and ensures the value remains in New Zealand.

New Zealand has the potential to unlock significant high-integrity nature-based and biodiversity credit demand, according to a new report Connecting Nature, Climate and Capital commissioned by BNZ from Deloitte and co-authored by The Nature Conservancy. 

The report finds strong domestic and international demand for high-integrity nature-based credits and highlights how coordinated action by government, restoration champions, partnerships with local communities and iwi-Māori, market intermediaries and investors could scale credible supply and instill market confidence.

High-integrity nature-based credits (covering both carbon and biodiversity credits) are a credible pathway for businesses to mobilise private capital and support climate action and nature restoration, while also delivering benefits for communities and supply chains. 

Globally, both voluntary carbon and biodiversity markets are projected to grow significantly by 2030 and beyond, and market trends are already signalling stronger demand for higher-integrity carbon credits. While carbon markets are relatively mature worldwide, biodiversity markets are still evolving, and in New Zealand both have not met their full potential. 

The report shows that there is a clear demand from New Zealand buyers, including corporates, financial institutions, and landowners, for nature-based credits generated in New Zealand, to be close to their communities and supply chains. To meet this demand, all players need to co-operate and invest to resolve uncertainty about credit supply and make project development possible at scale.  

International buyers also represent a significant growth opportunity for New Zealand’s nature-based credit markets. To attract this capital, New Zealand needs to be able to offer substantial volumes of nature-based credits, that meet high-integrity standards and demonstrate wider community and ecological benefits.  

The Government’s June 2025 announcement supporting the expansion of a New Zealand Voluntary Nature Credits Market (VNCM) was an important step in responding to global trends, with substantive work underway across the public and private sectors to help build confidence, integrity and scale.

Report co-author, Deloitte Partner, Louise Aitken says “our analysis highlights a significant opportunity for New Zealand to shape a world-class market from the ground up. By prioritising integrity, partnership and clear guidance, Aotearoa can attract long-term investment that supports restoration, strengthens biodiversity and delivers tangible benefits for people and place.”

BNZ Chief Sustainability Officer, Rebekah Cain says “New Zealand has already built a strong brand globally on nature and holds a credible advantage in developing a high-integrity voluntary nature credits market. This report highlights global demand for nature-based credits growing faster than supply, with a total market size today around NZ$2.5bn and expected to reach NZ$35.5bn in 2030. 

We see this market as an opportunity to help customers capture new value, while regenerating nature and building resilience within our communities. Whether the buyer is at home or offshore, the crucial element is that the value of the investment remains here in New Zealand.”

Climate change and nature’s decline are inextricably linked according to Dr Erik van Eyndhoven, Interim Country Director for The Nature Conservancy Aotearoa New Zealand. Financing New Zealand conservation and restoration remains a critical challenge.  “By generating high-integrity nature-based credits, restoration initiatives could attract private capital to restore nature, tackle climate change, and support iwi-Māori and local communities in adapting to climate change and reconnecting to their whenua.” says Erik van Eyndhoven.   

The report recommends:

• Buyers and investors provide early financial support through pre-purchase agreements and offtake agreements, to accelerate high-integrity project development.  
• Project developers and intermediaries adopt internationally-recognised standards and methodologies to guarantee credibility and eligibility for purchase by a wider buyer pool.
• Market facilitators aggregate small projects into larger portfolios, list credits on global brokerage platforms to improve accessibility, and build a national biodiversity data platform to strengthen verification. 
• Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) advocate for clear guidance for corporates on the use of credits within their climate and sustainability strategies, promote alignment with global integrity frameworks, and ensure the credibility of global methodologies by continuing to advocate for best practice and available science. 
• Policy makers and government issue voluntary guidance on how nature-based credits can complement emission reduction targets and endorse global credit integrity standards to give buyers confidence in their purchases. Consideration of early-stage funding will further help develop the market infrastructure, scale supply, and innovative solutions. 

By endorsing high-integrity standards, scaling credible supply and coordinating across Government, iwi-Māori, NGOs and investors, New Zealand can position itself as a trusted global leader in nature-based credits - mobilising capital into evidence-based projects with meaningful impact for our climate, nature and communities.  

To view the report click here