There’s no doubt New Zealand’s economy has been showing signs of recovery. Business confidence levels were recorded at their highest since 2014[1] and consumer spending was reported to be on the rise[2]. But then, following conflict in the Middle East, fuel costs rocketed[3], hitting supply chains and markets worldwide. 

For many businesses it will feel like the clouds were finally parting, only to be hit with a sudden storm. It's also worth noting that when conditions do stabilise, resilience across the business community is often at its lowest, which is precisely when they need to be most prepared.

It’s tough, but it’s also a reminder that disruptions can and will happen. And there are important steps you can take to ensure your business will continue to move forward, in any period of uncertainty.

Five things to get right when conditions are volatile

1. Get serious about forecasting and planning

Businesses need a genuine month-by-month view of cash flow and capital requirements before conditions shift, not after. In changeable times, a single forecast is not enough: having a base case and a downside case means the business is not caught by surprise if the outlook changes.

2. Review the funding structure

A lot of businesses set their financing once and forget it. As conditions change, there is almost certainly a better structure available. Ask your banker what they would change about how the business is currently funded. It is a deceptively powerful question.

3. Match funding to growth and seek out additional options early

If receivables are increasing, maximise what can be borrowed against them. With BNZ's CashFlow Plus, eligible businesses can borrow up to 80% of the value of approved domestic invoices[4], meaning owners fund just 20 cents in every dollar of sales growth, compared to around 50 cents with a traditional overdraft. In a fast-moving recovery, that difference is significant. It’s also worth noting that further funding options (shareholder contributions, bank lending, or investor capital) have very different lead times, so the conversation is worth starting before it feels urgent. 

4. Choose the growth worth chasing

In a capital-constrained environment, chasing volume with low-margin customers ties up cash that could work harder elsewhere. Reviewing the customer mix honestly is important. Quality of growth can be more important than quantity.

5. Get the right advisers around you

Most New Zealand business owners are excellent at what they do. That does not automatically mean depth in finance, HR, strategy, or other critical areas of business expertise. In a period of capital pressure, operating on gut feel is how many come unstuck. In my experience, the return on the right adviser, at the right moment, is always far greater than the cost. We can help with introductions to professionals if you are not sure where to start. BNZ's Growth Academy also provides free strategy workshopping sessions to help you build a personalised growth strategy.

Volatility is clarifying, if you’re prepared for it

Businesses that have done the work on their funding structure, their customer mix, and their cash flow visibility are better placed to move quickly, whether conditions improve, deteriorate, or simply stay unpredictable. There are real pressures to keep in view: an election later this year, an oil market adding cost pressure across the economy, and global market changes that tend to reach New Zealand with a delay.

It’s not always easy to predict what comes next. But it is possible to be positioned to respond, whatever the weather.

If reviewing your funding structure is on your mind, I warmly welcome you to connect. Our BNZ Business Partners are empowered bankers with significant personal approval levels. You will be speaking to the decision-maker, and that makes a real difference when timing matters.

[1] NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, January 2026
[2] RNZ Business News, 5 March 2026
[3] MBIE Weekly Fuel Price Monitoring
[4] Lending and eligibility criteria, terms and fees apply.