Rural Wrap - Slow Spring
- Spring 2017 lamb number estimates reduced
- Expected milk production increase also tempered
- Recent wet weather unhelpful for many
- Export growth outlook lowered, shaving GDP forecast
Export volumes of meat and dairy products over the coming season will, as usual, be a function of farmers’ previous decisions based on such things as climatic conditions and farm economics as well as events through the season itself. That is, what is happening on farm gives a good steer to what lies in store for exports. Winter and early spring weather has been less than ideal, crimping the outlook for export volumes.
BNZ Rural Wrap
International dairy prices rose strongly in 2016, from low levels. Prices have largely held these gains in 2017. While some easing is still expected over the coming year, we expect prices to be sufficient to underpin a $6.75 milk price in 2017/18. We see this as close to the mid-point of a still wide range of possible outcomes.