Rural Wrap: Many moving parts
• Lower NZD supports primary prices (and costs)
• Skimmilk powder prices up sharply
• We lift our 2026/27 milk price forecast to $10.00
• Beef and lamb prices complete very strong season
• El Nino impact one of many factors on the watch list
Major pastoral agriculture sectors recorded strong pricing over the past season with some setting records. Looking ahead, there is much to monitor with multiple factors on the move across prices, costs, and currencies. There is also the uncertainty heading into a close general election and clear weather risk in the form of a very strong El Nino.
Rural Wrap: Buoyant but at risk
• Primary sector exports strong
• Many factors in play for what comes next
• Geopolitics and trade developments important
• El Nino a key risk this season
• Disease, inflation, and interest rates on the radar too
• Global growth and NZD provide reasonable backdrop
New Zealand’s primary exports have been buoyant over the past 18 months or so – with elevated pricing and decent volumes across many major products. Confidence in the agricultural sector is strongly positive.
This is quite remarkable in the context of global goings on especially given that assessing what comes next is fraught with difficulty due to a litany of uncertainties and risks that could materially and abruptly alter the outlook for better or worse. There are many items on the radar.