Significant moves and building buffers
Volatility and uncertainty seem to be omnipresent with the primary sector seeming to see more than its fair share. It shows up in many forms as we have witnessed over recent seasons. Change can occur quickly.
Dipping dairy dynamics
Dairy prices have been generally strong in 2025 and the national income flows from it have been robust. However, the dynamics are changing with the global dairy market now clearly softening. A surge in global milk supply is putting material downward pressure on prices.
Export incomes to support activity
Primary sector export returns have been stellar over the past year. Major sectors like dairy, beef, lamb, and kiwifruit have seen significant gains. While not every sector has enjoyed strong gains, the sector heavy weights have driven overall agricultural exports to $53.0b in the year to August 2025, some $7.5b higher than a year earlier.