Outlook for borrowers

Outlook for Borrowers: Post May MPS

Stuart Ritson -

The RBNZ left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 5.5% at the May Monetary Policy Statement. However, the Bank upgraded its hawkish bias, referencing domestic inflation pressures, which have fallen more slowly than it had expected. The RBNZ raised its modelled cash rate track, which now peaks at 5.65% in December, implying a higher probability of a further rate hike, relative to the February Statement. As a result, the first projected rate cut has been pushed back to H2-2025. Although the Committee reached a consensus decision to leave rates on hold, a hike was discussed.

Outlook for Borrowers: Post April MPR

Stuart Ritson -

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 5.5% at the Monetary Policy Review (MPR) on Wednesday. The statement, accompanying the expected ‘on hold’ decision, indicated there is little change in the Bank’s assessment of the economy and inflation outlook from the February Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). The Monetary Policy Committee is ‘confident that maintaining the OCR at a restrictive level for a sustained period’ will return inflation to target this year.

Outlook for Borrowers: Post February MPS

Stuart Ritson -

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady as expected, at 5.5%, at the February Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). The Bank, although remaining hawkish, eased its rhetoric from the previous MPS in November. A mild tightening bias was retained but Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members noted that overall, risks to the outlook for inflation were more balanced than at the time of the November 2023 Statement.