NZ At A Glance

New Zealand at a Glance

Stephen Toplis -

All forecasts are nonsensical but we think it important that folk understand the shape, if not the magnitude, of the way ahead. While the extent is unclear what is clear is that the biggest marginal hit to the economy will be in the second quarter of this year. What will ultimately determine the depth will be the progress of Covid-19 and the duration of the current lockdown. Importantly, there will be a recovery and the recovery will be big. Again, the timing of this is uncertain but it would be a real surprise if it hadn’t started by the end of this year and builds aggressive momentum through 2021.