Markets Today

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have continued to push higher overnight on growing market optimism that the global economy has passed the turning point. The risk-on backdrop has led to a further fall in the USD. The NZD is back above 0.62 this morning.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Global equity markets are higher, with optimism on the economic recovery and policy stimulus more than offsetting rising US-China tensions, with the latter more an influence on weaker NZD and AUD currencies, alongside further sign of China-Australian trade tensions.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Risk sentiment is notably higher, driving up global equity markets, bond rates and commodity currencies, while the USD is the weakest of the majors. After the long weekend in some countries, investors are feeling optimistic about the outlook, driving up equity prices. The S&P500 has blasted up through the 3000 level for the first time since early March and is currently up near-2%, following a more than 1% gain for the Euro Stoxx 600 index. For the S&P500, for a change IT and Health Care stocks are dragging the chain, with the rally led by Financials and economically-sensitive sectors such as Industrials and Materials, positive sign. In Europe, travel and leisure stocks led the gains in response to moves by Germany and Spain to lift their travel restrictions.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets are very quiet with the UK and US on holiday. S&P futures are up over 1% and Treasury futures are little changed. Currencies have barely moved since the new week began, seeing the NZD trade near 0.61 and the AUD near 0.6545.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Despite mounting US-China tensions, including over Hong Kong, equity markets made modest gains on Friday. There was again little change in global rates. The NZD fell, along with other commodity currencies, and ended the week below 0.61. The RBNZ said it would slightly taper its bond-buying for the week ahead although NZ rates were little moved by the news. It’s a public holiday in both the US and UK today so markets should be very quiet.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US-China tensions have weighed on equity markets overnight, although the moves (S&P500 -0.7%) have been reasonably modest. The NZD has fallen amidst the more cautious risk sentiment.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Risk sentiment is positive again, with global equity markets higher and the NZD and AUD continuing to push higher. The rates market hasn’t really joined in, with government bond yields flat to slightly lower overnight.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There hasn’t been much follow-through from yesterday’s surge in equity prices, with the S&P500 only slightly higher, following a 0.6% fall in the Euro Stoxx 600 index, while global rates are slightly lower. However, the currency market is trading like risk appetite is notably higher, with the NZD and AUD near the top of the leaderboard and safe-haven currencies underperforming.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The new week has begun with much stronger risk sentiment, supported by the opening up of countries from lockdowns and hope for a new vaccine to fight COVID19. US and European equities are up in the order of 3-4%, global rates are higher and the NZD and AUD are near the top of the leaderboard.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets made modest gains on Friday despite US-China tensions picking up further. There wasn’t much reaction to record falls in US industrial production and retail sales, with global rates edging higher. The NZD was the worst performing G10 currency on Friday’s session and the week itself. NZD/USD closed at a three-week low around 0.5935 and NZD/AUD at a six-month low around 0.9250.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been a mixed trading session overnight, with bond and currency markets adopting a cautious tone, but US equities rebounding (to flat) after a poor start. The NZD has drifted a bit lower – not much, but enough to take it down to its lowest level in a few weeks.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Negative risk sentiment has extended into another trading session, with weaker equity markets and lower global rates. Safe haven currencies have showed some modest outperformance, taking the NZD sub 0.60, but with no further damage to most of the crosses overnight, after yesterday’s post MPS lurch lower.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets have taken on a slightly more cautious tone overnight, seeing US equities down moderately and lower global rates. Currency moves have been modest, with a hint of GBP weakness alongside a broadly softer USD.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The week has begun with a mild risk-on tone, with US equities showing modest gains and the VIX index continuing to trend lower, down to a fresh two-month low, while global rates are higher. Currency markets have bucked the trend, with the USD outperforming, taking the NZD back well below 0.61. Oil prices are weaker despite some surprise production cuts announced.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets finished last week on a strong note, despite nonfarm payrolls revealing a record loss of US jobs in April. US rates moved higher after the Fed said that Chair Powell will make a speech this week – markets expect Powell to push back on recent speculation that the Fed is considering negative interest rates. The NZD benefited from the risk-on backdrop, ending the week above 0.61. It’s a big week in New Zealand ahead with the Government announcing today when the country will move to Covid Level 2, the RBNZ’s eagerly anticipated Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday and the Budget on Thursday.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have had another good night overnight (S&P600 +1.2%). The big news has been in the US rates market, where the market has, for the first time, started to price a negative Fed funds rate (-0.02% by the end of the year). The USD has fallen broadly amidst the fall in US rates. The NZD and AUD are up around 1.2% over the past 24 hours.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equity markets have risen overnight, led again by the tech sector, as investors look ahead towards the gradual reopening of economies. Bond yields have increased, and curves steepened, after the US Treasury announced a larger-than-expected increase to longer-dated bond issuance. NZ rates finally backed-up yesterday, with government bond yields rising by up to 10bps. The NZD has moved lower and sits this morning just around 0.6020. Finance Minister Robertson speaks at midday and he may provide some policy announcements ahead of the Budget next week.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

We’ve back to a risk-positive tone, with higher global equity markets overnight. Currency movements haven’t been particularly significant, although CHF and EUR are notably weaker.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The new week has begun with mildly weaker risk sentiment. This sees global equity markets lower and the USD and JPY in demand, although the AUD and CAD haven’t been negatively affected by the more cautious tone.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets fell on Friday as the market digested disappointing earnings results from Apple and Amazon and suggestions that Trump could reignite the trade war with China. Commodity currencies fell sharply, with the NZD down 1% on Friday to around 0.6060. There was another sharp fall in NZ rates last week, as the RBNZ kept the foot on the throttle with bond buying.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

A slight risk-off feel has pervaded markets for the last day of trading for the month of April, with global equities weaker and global rates lower. Commodity currencies have underperformed overnight, but the NZD is the best of the pack and is hanging in there around 0.6140.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have risen strongly overnight (S&P500 +3%) after news that Gilead Sciences’ remdesivir drug had shown positive results in government-run trials. Risk sensitive currencies have outperformed, with the NZD leading the way in the G10, and commodity prices have increased.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been a fairly uneventful overnight session, but notably the USD shows broadly based losses, while commodity currencies have outperformed. This sees the NZD regain its losses seen during the local trading session, following a sharp fall in domestic interest rates. US Treasury yields have pushed lower, with the 10-year rate reversing course and heading back down towards 0.60%.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have performed well over the past two sessions as countries look to ease up containment measures for COVID-19. Offshore government bond yields have pushed a little higher. Risk sensitive currencies have outperformed, especially the AUD. The NZD/AUD cross has reached its lowest level since mid-November. NZ is officially in in COVID Level 3 today.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There has been plenty of news to digest overnight but market movements have been well-contained by recent standards. Commodity currencies have been well supported, with better price action in the oil market helping.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have bounced back from yesterday’s falls, with US benchmarks up 2-3% overnight. Oil prices have also recovered. Bond yields have risen in sympathy with the improvement in risk appetite but remain at very low levels. Currency moves have been restrained although, notably, the NZD/AUD cross has fallen again, to its lowest level since mid-November.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Risk sentiment has soured, not helped by the focus on the oil market, which is seeing a further plunge in pricing. Equity markets are down 2-4% and the US 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to the bottom end of its range for the past month. Yesterday’s fall in the NZD to below 0.60 has extended overnight, while the AUD has slipped further below 0.63.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

There has been an almost unbelievable fall in the US West Texas oil price overnight, with the soon-to-mature futures contract trading to as low as -$40 per barrel (minus forty dollars). A glut of oil, lack of physical storage capacity and technical factors related to the May futures contract expiry are all at play. Broader markets haven’t been overly affected by the fall in oil prices – US equities have fallen 1-2%, bond yields are little changed and the CAD and NOK have fallen, but only by about 1%. In NZ, the PM said the Covid Level 4 lockdown should end next Tuesday, which has boosted the NZD. The NZD has been the best performing currency in the G10 over the past 24 hours.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Market sentiment ended the week on a positive note, seeing strong gains in equity markets. Commodity currencies outperformed during the local trading session, amidst a broadly based fall in the USD, with a mild extension of the moves in the overnight session.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Market movements have been a bit more subdued overnight. The S&P500 and NASDAQ have made modest gains while bond yields have continued to grind lower. Economic data remains abysmal but this has been overlooked by markets. The USD has increased strongly for the second day running, taking the NZD down to around 0.5950.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Risk sentiment has soured, evident in lower equity markets, lower US Treasury yields and broadly based USD strength, with the commodity currencies significantly underperforming.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have pushed higher overnight (S&P500: +3%) as the market digests the extraordinary policy response from governments and central banks. Trump is expected to make an announcement on plans for reopening the US economy in the coming days. The risk-on backdrop has led to a fall in the USD, although the NZD has underperformed overnight. There was more fiscal assistance announced by the NZ government this morning, including a $3.1b tax loss carry-back scheme.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US equities have begun the new week on a soft note, with nervousness evident as focus turns to the earnings season which soon kicks into gear. Since the NZ close pre-Easter, the AUD and NZD have significantly outperformed, against a backdrop of a soft USD, following the Fed’s unleashing of further extraordinary policy measures.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Risk sentiment is gradually improving. Equity markets have made gains (S&P500: 3.2%), the VIX has continued to trend lower and bond yields have pushed higher (US10y: +5bps). Markets are looking ahead to the easing of containment measures in the coming months. The NZD and AUD have performed strongly overnight, with the NZD trading back above 0.60. Yesterday there were more comments from senior RBNZ officials that point to an increase in its QE programme in May.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Higher risk sentiment seen at the beginning of the week has extended through Tuesday, with higher global equities, narrowing credit spreads, higher government bond yields and a weaker USD.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

It has been a good night for risk asset markets, on hopes that European countries will soon start to phase out containment measures. The S&P500 is up almost 6%, while Treasury yields are higher too (US10y +8bps). Commodity currencies have appreciated, despite oil prices falling. The NZD has risen steadily overnight and trades this morning at around 0.5930.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

On Friday, global equity markets ended the week on a soft note and the USD made good gains for the third consecutive day, sending the NZD and AUD down to their lows for the week. Oil prices rallied strongly again on hope for widespread production cuts.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have risen (S&P500 +1%) despite another unprecedented surge in US jobless claims, to well above 6 million. The big market mover overnight was oil, which rocketed more than 20% higher after Trump said he expected OPEC+ to agree to a 10m-15m barrels per day supply cut, although Russia has denied this. Energy sector stocks have led gains on the S&P500, US inflation expectations have increased and commodity currencies have outperformed despite broader USD strength elsewhere. There have been further signs of life in primary credit markets offshore.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The new quarter has begun on a poor note for risk assets, with chunky falls in global equities, higher credit spreads, and lower US Treasury rates. In currency markets JPY and the USD have outperformed, while the NZD has made a few attempts at going sub-0.59.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Market movements overnight have been reasonably modest (as least, at the time we are writing this). The VIX measure of volatility has fallen to its lowest level in 3 weeks, just above 50. There has been more activity in the USD and EUR primary credit markets. Global equities and bond yields are modestly lower. The USD has strengthened, despite signs of easing USD funding pressures. The NZD and AUD have underperformed meaningfully, with the NZD trading at around 0.5910. New Zealand Debt Management releases its funding plan for the June quarter, in which it has said it plans to issue $5.1b in bonds, at 8am this morning.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The good news is that the market has ignored the bad news, seeing global equities start the week on a positive note, while the Fed’s backstop sees US Treasury yields fall again. The USD shows broad gains as we head towards month-end, seeing the NZD dip below 0.60, while damage to the AUD has been limited by a massive fiscal package announced by the government.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets and bond yields fell on Friday, despite Trump officially signing the $2 trillion fiscal support package into law. Still, equities were up significantly over the course of what was a very volatile week. The USD experienced another big fall, leaving the NZD trading back above 0.60 by the end of the week.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Fear in the market continues to recede, with US and European equity markets increasing for the third successive day, seemingly buoyed by the support of central banks and governments. Bond markets remain unaffected by the increased risk appetite, given the backstop of central bank buying. The USD has come under significant pressure, which sees the NZD and AUD make gains of over 2% since the NZ close.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The improvement we saw in risk sentiment yesterday has sustained into a second day, with the S&P500 on track for its first back-to-back gain in six weeks, supported by an agreed US fiscal package to offset the devastating economic impact of COVID-19. US Treasury yields are lower. The NZD and AUD are little changed from the NZ close after a rollercoaster ride overnight.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Risk sentiment has rebounded as markets fully digest the Fed’s extreme policy action taken earlier this week and hope abounds that US lawmakers can stop squabbling and agree to a massive stimulus bill to support the economy. Global equity markets are up in the order of 7-8%, while global rates are higher. GBP strength and JPY weakness have been the key currency moves overnight, with the NZD relatively steady after gaining during the local trading session.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The market is finding it hard to ignore the disturbing trend in the spread of COVID-19 and impact on the global economy, as an increasing number of countries go into lockdown. Risk assets have remained under pressure, even with new central bank and government support measures being announced on a daily basis. Global equity markets are lower while global rates are also lower, with central bank support more than offsetting the worries about increased bond supply. Currency markets have been fairly well behaved, considering the backdrop.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Market turmoil continued on Friday, with US equities ending the week on a poor note and investors seeking the haven of the bond market, helped by the recent action of central banks. The NZD and AUD had another volatile session, trading ranges of more than 2 cents over the Friday night session and ending the week on a soft note, just above 0.57 and just below 0.58 respectively.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets have shown some tentative signs of stabilising overnight amidst a barrage of emergency central bank policy measures. The ECB, BoE and RBA all outlined new or enhanced QE purchase programmes while the Fed established a Money Market fund to ease funding strains. US equities are modestly higher (S&P500 +1.5%) while the prospect of greater QE purchases by central banks has calmed bond markets (US 10y -15bps, Italy 10y -60bps). NZGB yields increased sharply again yesterday in illiquid market conditions and we think there’s a growing risk that the RBNZ follows the path of global central banks and announces a QE programme imminently. The USD has continued to rally, and the NZD and AUD fell as much as 5% yesterday afternoon. But there has been a big turnaround overnight, with the NZD rising almost 6% from yesterday’s lows.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equities have plunged again (S&P500 -9%), oil has fallen sharply (Brent -14%) and the USD has strengthened significantly (BBDXY +2.1%). The GBP hit a liquidity vacuum a short while ago and fell as much as 5% to its lowest since 1985 while the NZD is now trading at around 0.5750. These are huge moves. Government bond yields have headed higher again despite the risk-off moves evident in other asset classes. The NZGB market came under further significant pressure yesterday, with yields jumping sharply.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Market volatility continues. Policymakers have been jolted into action, with France and Spain announcing major fiscal support packages and the US administration looking at sending cash directly to Americans, which some have likened to a ‘helicopter money’ drop. US equities are up around 5-6% while bond yields have increased on the prospect of large-scale fiscal stimulus and more government bond supply. The Fed has restarted its Commercial Paper Funding Facility in a bid to ease strains in the funding markets. The USD has experienced a big move higher, against all currencies. The NZD and AUD are now both trading below 0.6, levels last seen during the GFC. Yesterday, our own government announced a major fiscal support package which led to a big increase in domestic rates and, especially, government bond yields.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Wild market moves continue. There was more aggressive central bank easing yesterday, with the Fed cutting its cash rate by 1% and restarting QE, the BoJ doubling its ceiling for ETF purchases and the RBNZ cutting the OCR by 75bps. This hasn’t done much to support risk asset markets though, with the S&P500 some 9% lower on the day (albeit off its intraday lows). Rates are lower in NZ and the US, following the large-scale rate cuts. The NZD initially fell below 0.60 yesterday morning, ahead of the RBNZ 75bp cut, but it has bounced back to 0.6060 after the Fed cut rates. The NZD/AUD cross got close to parity overnight before easing back to 0.99. The government announces its fiscal package to combat COVID-19 at 2pm today, and we’re expecting it to be very big.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

There was more eye watering volatility on Friday across global markets. The S&P500 increased more than 9%, reversing most of its losses from the previous session, after Trump declared a national state of emergency and announced some measures to support the economy. Bond yields continued to head higher, rounding off an exceptionally volatile week. The Bank of Canada and Norges Bank both cut 50bps in unscheduled decisions. The USD strengthened again amid signs of a liquidity squeeze in dollars, although the NZD managed to stay above 0.60. The NZD is likely to start the week on the back foot after PM Ardern said almost all travellers to the country would need to self-isolate for 14 days, which will hit the tourism industry particularly hard. The NZ government is due to announce its fiscal response to COVID-19 tomorrow, with PM Ardern saying it would be “significant”.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Financial markets are in turmoil, as containment measures to stop the spread of COVID-19 look increasingly likely to send the global economy into a deep recession and potentially trigger a credit crisis. Record double-digit falls in European equity markets have been seen, with the tweaks in ECB policy only confirming that the toolbox is largely empty, and US equities are down over 7%, even with a surprise liquidity announcement by the Fed. Falls in global rates have been limited by offsetting selling pressure in a demand for cash, while the USD has soared on increased demand for USD liquidity. The NZD and AUD have seen falls to below 0.61 and 0.63 respectively, since recovered somewhat.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The whipsawing in global equity markets has continued, with US equities plunging after yesterday’s surge, with a lack of US policy response to COVID-19 coming as a disappointment. European policy makers have been out in force overnight, seeing steeper bond curves. Currency markets have been well-contained with modest movements overnight.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been a whippy trading session overnight, with early rebounds in global equities not being sustained, while US Treasuries have traded a wide range. Higher US rates have helped support the USD, while the NZD has finally come under pressure, alongside the AUD.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Financial markets have been melting down in response to the twin shocks of collapsing oil prices and the spread of COVID-19. Global equity markets are down in the order of 5-10%, bond markets are seeing a flight to safe havens (UST10s -26bps, Italy 10s +34bps), while JPY is proving once again to be the preeminent safe-haven currency. After flash crashes yesterday, the NZD and AUD are both stronger overnight.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

On Friday risk appetite plunged further, with the VIX index reaching levels not seen since the GFC and another meaty fall in US Treasury yields to fresh record lows. Australian and NZ government bond yields also reached that milestone. The USD came under further selling pressure, seeing the NZD rise for the fifth consecutive day, while a plunge in oil prices saw CAD at the bottom of the leaderboard.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Whippy trading in equities and bond markets continues with yesterday’s exuberance in equity markets giving way to despair overnight, while US 10-year Treasury yields hit a fresh record low below 0.90%. Safe haven currencies have outperformed, while the AUD is the worst of the majors, slipping back below 0.66.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equities have rebounded overnight, helped by Joe Biden’s performance in ‘Super Tuesday’ and expectations of more stimulus, but bond yields remain near record-low levels. The Bank of Canada was the latest central bank to cut its cash rate overnight, by 50bps. There was speculation that the RBNZ might cut rates yesterday (intra-meeting) but, clearly, no cut transpired and the RBNZ hinted it would wait until its scheduled meeting on the 25th to decide on the OCR.

BNZ Markets Today

Doug Steel -

The Fed cuts 50bps causing gyrations in equity markets which ultimately have given back a chunk of yesterday’s gains. US bond yields move markedly lower, adding to downward pressure on the US dollar.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Risk asset markets have bounced back overnight after reports that G7 finance ministers and central bankers would have a conference call later today, raising the prospect of a globally coordinated policy response to the COVID-19 outbreak. US equity markets are up around 2%. The USD has weakened sharply amidst expectations of aggressive Fed easing. The NZD and AUD opened lower yesterday morning after the shocking falls in China’s PMIs, but they have recovered those losses as risk appetite has improved. There were big falls again in NZ rates yesterday, with the market now pricing a 40% chance of a 50bp RBNZ rate cut later this month.