Markets Today

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Global rates and equities moved sharply lower overnight, with heightened trade tensions continuing to weigh on sentiment and a much weaker than expected US business survey raising concerns about the US growth outlook. The disappointing US data sparked a turnaround in the USD, which has weakened across the board. The NZD has bounced back above 0.65. NZ rates continued fall yesterday amidst growing global risks and the 10 year swap will break 2% today for the first time on record.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equities and global rates have moved lower overnight after reports the US would extend restrictions to more Chinese technology firms. There hasn’t been much change since the FOMC minutes were released a short while ago, with the Fed reiterating its pledge to be patient. The NZD has continued to grind lower amid building OCR rate cut expectations.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have rebounded over the past 24 hours after the US granted a temporary reprieve to Huawei. Brexit also continues to linger as a risk for markets, with Labour leader Corbyn saying his party will vote against Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement bill. Meanwhile, Governor Lowe indicated that the RBA would consider cutting rates next month, leading to a sharp fall in the AUD. The NZD made a fresh year-to-date low.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have remained under pressure overnight, with US decision to place restrictions on Huawei continuing to weigh on sentiment. Moves in other markets have generally been contained, although the AUD benefited from the Liberal-National coalition’s unexpected election victory over the weekend.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets ended last week on a soft note amid reports that plans for fresh US-China trade talks had been put on hold. The big news over the weekend was the surprise victory for the Liberal-National coalition in the Australian election, which will likely see the AUD open higher this morning. There may be some positive knock-on effect to the NZD, which closed at its lowest level of the year on Friday.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Risk sentiment has continued to improve overnight, with equities making further gains and Treasury yields moving higher. The moves came despite confirmation of US restrictions on Huawei. The USD has strengthened, helped by better economic data. The NZD and AUD have continued to drift to new lows, with a surprise rise in the Australian unemployment rate yesterday leading the market to price a better than even chance of an RBA rate cut next month.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have moved higher overnight after reports that Trump would delay a decision on auto tariffs by up to six months. In contrast, weaker Chinese and US economic data pulled bond yields lower, with Treasury yields trading close to their year-to-date lows and German bund yields falling to their lowest since 2016. The NZD has continued to grind lower overnight, although FX market moves have been contained.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets have recovered over the past 24 hours after some more optimistic-sounding comments from President Trump on the prospect of a trade deal with China. Equities and bond yields moved higher while the NZD and AUD increased modestly.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets moved into risk-off mode overnight after China retaliated by increasing tariffs on $60b of US imports by up to 25%. US equities plunged, bond yields fell and the AUD and NZD depreciated.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets have been resilient, so far, to confirmation that the US would increase tariffs on around $200b worth of Chinese imports to 25%. After initially falling, US and Chinese equities and US Treasury yields ended higher on the day on Friday. Currency movements, including the NZD, have been contained.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Another risk-off session is the order of the day, with the market nervous about US-China trade talks that kick off within the next couple of hours. Equities and bond yields are lower but the USD is also under a little bit of pressure and shows broadly based losses. This sees the NZD recovering towards 0.66 and the AUD towards 0.70.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US-China trade war news has dominated headlines overnight, with the market overall taking a complacent view of proceedings, seeing US equities modestly positive and US rates slightly higher. The NZD has only sustained a small fall after the RBNZ cut rates yesterday. GBP remains soft as hopes for a Brexit deal fade.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Events Round-Up
AU: Trade balance ($b), Mar: 4949 vs. 4480 exp.
AU: Retail sales (m/m%), Mar: 0.3 vs. 0.2 exp.
AU: Real retail sales (q/q%), Q1: -0.1 vs. 0.3 exp.
NZ: RBNZ 2Yy inflation expects., Q2: 2.01 vs. 2.02 prev.
AU: RBA cash rate target (%), May: 1.50 vs. 1.25 exp.
GE: Factory orders (m/m%), Mar: 0.6 vs. 1.4 exp.
NZ: GDT dairy auction price index: +0.4%

Good Morning
The escalation of US-China trade tensions is in focus, driving a risk-off session, with a belated slump in US equities, while US Treasury rates are pushing lower. JPY and the USD are well supported in this environment. NZD slipped below 0.66 overnight while the AUD shredded its post-RBA gains.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Events Round-Up
CH: Caixin PMI services, Apr: 54.5 vs. 54.4 prev.

Good Morning
After a risk-off session during the NZ time zone yesterday following Trump’s tweet that threw US-China trade negotiations into disarray, markets have settled as we await further developments, and we’ve see a recovery in most risk assets overnight. The NZD is an exception, weakening a touch overnight but holding up just above 0.66.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

On Friday, US rates pushed lower and the USD showed broadly based weakness after the US employment report, while US equities powered on up. GBP was the best performer after local elections sent a warning message to the Conservatives and Labour to get on with a Brexit deal.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Yesterday’s fall in US equities, and rise in US rates and USD after Fed Chair Powell uttered the words low inflation may be “transitory” has carried through into another trading session, although on the currency side, changes have been fairly small.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The NZD has solidified the loss seen post the NZ labour market data yesterday. It has been a bit of a whippy session overnight, with a weaker US ISM manufacturing report and the Fed Chair sounding upbeat in the opening statement to his press conference, after a no-surprise FOMC statement. US rates were lower but have bounced back up.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There has been a lot of economic data to digest and US earnings results, while month-end flows are also a factor. The net result is a flat US equity market and softer USD across the board, with GBP outperforming. US rates have pushed lower.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been a quiet start to a busy week, with modest price action in currency markets, while US rates have pushed higher.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The NZD ended the week on a positive note, alongside other commodity currencies, helped along by an underwhelming US GDP report that also saw US treasury yields retreat.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The USD remains well bid, although the NZD is trying to recover after reaching a fresh year-to date low on ANZAC Day. US 10-year Treasury yields have nudged higher overnight but are still lower than when we left the office on Wednesday.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There has been little newsflow, and it is one of those weird days where nothing much makes sense. The USD has shown broadly based gains, seeing it make a fresh high for the year, while the NZD makes a low. That’s against a backdrop of stronger equity markets. Meanwhile in bond markets, European rates are higher, while US Treasury rates are slightly lower.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Volatility remains suppressed, with the Easter break not helping. The NZD and AUD fell late on Thursday and have sustained those losses. The main price action to speak of is a strong gain in crude oil prices.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Market trading remains subdued ahead of the Easter holidays, with little pulse across global equities and bond markets. Currency markets have showed little movement overnight, while the NZD remains at the bottom of the pack after yesterday’s downside miss to the CPI.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Events Round-Up
UK: Unemployment rate (%), Feb: 3.9 vs. 3.9 exp.
UK: Weekly earnings x bonus (y/y%), Feb: 3.4 vs. 3.4%
GE: ZEW survey expectations, Apr: 3.1 vs. 0.5 exp.
NZ: GDT auction dairy price index: +0.5%
US: Industrial production (m/m%), Mar: -0.1 vs. 0.2 exp.
US: NAHB housing market index, Apr: 63 vs. 63 exp.

Good Morning
Market volatility remains suppressed in the lead-up to Easter. Of note though, US Treasury rates continue to trend higher and the 10-year rate is now back to levels preceding the last Fed meeting. AUD has recovered yesterday’s losses to trade flat, while the NZD remains flat.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been a quiet start to the week in the run-up to Easter with little newsflow to drive markets. US equities have spent much of the session in negative territory and are currently slightly lower, US Treasuries have traded in a narrow range and the NZD and AUD are little changed from where they began the week.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Strong China exports and credit data drove a classic “risk-on” session on Friday, seeing commodity currencies outperform, alongside higher global equities and rates.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Lower than expected US core CPI data and a downbeat economic assessment from ECB President Draghi pushed global rates lower overnight, although they have recovered marginally over the past hour after the release of the FOMC minutes. Equity markets are unchanged to slightly higher while the USD is weaker. The AUD has outperformed after RBA Deputy Governor Debelle’s speech failed to provide the dovish signals the market was hoping for. Australian and NZ rates rose after the Debelle speech, with NZGB yields, in particular, rising sharply.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Events Round-Up
NZ: ANZ Truckometer - heavy (m/m%), Mar: -2 vs. 0.4 prev.
AU: Home loans (m/m%), Feb: 0.8 vs. 0.5 exp.
US: NFIB small business optimism, Mar: 101.8 vs. 102 exp.
US: JOLTS job openings (k), Feb: 7087 vs. 7566 exp.

Good Morning
Market sentiment is a little more cautious, with equities and bond yields falling and the JPY outperforming overnight. Market moves have been reasonably contained however, ahead of a series of key events tonight and tomorrow morning.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Events Round-Up
NZ: ANZ Truckometer - heavy (m/m%), Mar: -2 vs. 0.4 prev.
AU: Home loans (m/m%), Feb: 0.8 vs. 0.5 exp.
US: NFIB small business optimism, Mar: 101.8 vs. 102 exp.
US: JOLTS job openings (k), Feb: 7087 vs. 7566 exp.

Good Morning
Market sentiment is a little more cautious, with equities and bond yields falling and the JPY outperforming overnight. Market moves have been reasonably contained however, ahead of a series of key events tonight and tomorrow morning.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of several key event risks later this week . US equities markets are little changed while bond yields have nudged higher, the latter supported by a further rise in oil prices. The USD has weakened across the board, although the NZD has underperformed and is up only modestly.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

A market-friendly payrolls report, which showed a larger than expected jobs gain and softer wage growth, positive comments on US-China trade talks, and President Trump’s call for the Fed to resume QE all helped boost risk assets on Friday. The S&P500 ended the week within touching distance of its all-time highs, while bond yields fell modestly. Currency moves were contained, although the NZD was the worst performer on Friday. The GBP wasn’t far behind, after Theresa May asked for a short extension to Brexit from the EU and negotiations with the Labour party failed to generate a breakthrough.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Market pricing is well contained, as is typical leading up to the US payrolls report tonight. But within the mix of little overall price action, there’s some unexplainable weakness in the NZD following some weird rates activity yesterday, which we’d put down to flows than fundamental forces.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Positive economic and US-China trade talk news sees risk appetite improve, driving equities and global rates higher. NZD and AUD have pushed on higher against a backdrop of a weaker USD.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US equities are flat to lower and US Treasury rates have steadied after the significant sell-off yesterday. NZD, AUD and CAD are all weaker, facing their own issues.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Stronger US ISM data have driven a significant sell-off in US Treasuries, but that hasn’t perturbed equity markets, which show decent gains. The NZD is little changed from last week’s close, while GBP is recovering as a super-soft Brexit comes into play.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The March quarter ended on a positive note on Friday, with higher risk appetite driving global equities higher while US Treasury yields ended slightly higher. Currency movements weren’t significant, although commodity currencies headed the leaderboard, while Brexit uncertainty continued to weigh on GBP.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equities and bond yields are slightly higher overnight, although markets remain cautious. Likewise, most currencies are little changed, with the exception of the GBP, which has remained under pressure ahead of a vote on a modified version of Theresa May’s deal tonight. The NZD is hovering just below 0.68. RBNZ Governor Orr speaks at 9am this morning, and he is likely to be quizzed on the Bank’s decision to move to an easing bias at its OCR Review.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There has been minimal news overnight, but the market remains in an anxious state about the global economic outlook, which sees downward pressure on equity markets and global rates. The NZD has held its ground around 0.68 overnight after yesterday’s 1.6% drop after the shocking RBNZ OCR Review. GBP is bid ahead of a series of indicative votes on Brexit this morning by the UK Parliament, while the AUD is under pressure on the back of weaker risk appetite.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equities and bond yields have moved modestly higher over the past 24 hours as recession fears have eased somewhat. The moves came despite weaker than expected US consumer confidence and housing data. Currency market moves have been reasonably subdued, although the GBP has strengthened slightly after key Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg signalled he might support Theresa May’s deal. The NZD is unchanged overnight, ahead of the RBNZ’s OCR Review this afternoon.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equity markets have stabilized overnight, after the heavy falls on Friday night, while global rates have moved lower again. The US bond curve has steepened, with growing market expectations for Fed rate cuts driving larger declines in shorter-dated yields. NZ 5 and 10 year rates hit record lows yesterday. Despite the fragile mood in markets, the NZD has risen overnight, and now sits above 0.69.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets moved into risk-off mode on Friday, after a much weaker German PMI survey increased concerns about the global economy. US equities were down sharply, more than reversing the gains seen in wake of the dovish FOMC meeting on Wednesday night. US bond yields moved significantly lower, and the 10 year Treasury yield fell below the 3 month rate for the first time since 2007, in a possible recessionary warning. The NZD was a bystander to the volatility in markets elsewhere, and was unchanged on the day.

BNZ Markets Today

Doug Steel -

Lots of news yesterday with a more dovish than expected Fed statement, a solid NZ GDP report, and a lower AU unemployment rate causing market movements.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

A dovish FOMC statement, which indicated the Fed does not intend to raise rates this year, has seen the USD and rates fall sharply and US equities move higher. The Fed also said it would end its balance sheet reduction at the end of September. The NZD has broken through 0.69 after the FOMC meeting. NZ GDP and the Australian labour market report are in focus today.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Market movements remain well contained ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow morning, where the market is primed for a dovish statement. US equity markets continue to drift higher, US yields are steady near recent lows, and the USD is on the soft side.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Good Morning
Financial markets are quiet and prices are largely tracking sideways, with little newsflow. GBP is softer as hope fades for an end to the fog of uncertainty over Brexit.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Good Morning
Financial markets had a quiet end to last week, with modest changes in currencies, modest upside to equity markets and some further downside pressure to global rates.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

GBP is choppy but generally well supported as focus is directed towards the UK Parliament as it decides the path towards Brexit. The AUD and NZD are weaker after underwhelming China data yesterday, while JPY is weaker leading up to the BoJ’s announcement today. Bonds and equities show little movement.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Risk sentiment remains positive, with US equities up again and testing the highs of the year, although bonds have been largely unmoved. The GBP remains very volatile, and has bounced back strongly ahead of the UK parliamentary vote later this morning on whether to rule out leaving the EU without a deal on March 29th – it should easily pass. NZ rates had another sizable decline yesterday, following similar moves in Australia after weak consumer confidence data, and the 10 year swap has reached a record low.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

A slightly weaker than expected US core CPI release overnight has triggered a fall in the USD and US rates. Risk sentiment remains relatively buoyant however, and US equities have pushed modestly higher. The GBP remains volatile and has reversed yesterday’s gains after Attorney General Cox said his legal advice on the backstop agreement was unchanged, meaning PM May’s Brexit deal is almost certain to be voted down in parliament later today. The NZD was again the top performing currency and NZD/AUD is now testing 0.97.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets are trading with a risk-on tone overnight, with global equities markets up strongly. US retail sales bounced back from weakness in December, but US rates have been largely unmoved. Most currencies are little changed to start the week, although the GBP has recovered ahead of Theresa May’s Brexit vote tonight amidst speculation she might have secured some concessions from the EU.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

A mixed US non-farm payroll report, featuring a mere 20k job gain but faster wage growth, had little net impact on markets, with US equities and bond yields close to unchanged on the day. The USD was broadly lower on the day, although the bulk of those losses had occurred pre-payrolls. The NZD was the top-performing currency on Friday.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The ECB’s sobering economic outlook triggered further weakness in global equity markets, lower global bond rates and a lower euro. Other key currency movements have been modest, with the NZD and AUD close to where they were yesterday morning.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US equities and rates are lower this morning as we continue to see a lack of follow-through from last week’s gains. The NZD has performed okay against the backdrop of weaker AUD and CAD currencies, following weak Australian GDP data and a less hawkish Bank of Canada.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Market movements overnight have been modest, with US equities tracking sideways, and US rates up slightly. For the session, the USD shows broadly based gains, supported by stronger data, which has seen the NZD track consistently under the 0.68 mark.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

After initially rising on the back of reports that a US-China trade deal was in the “final stages”, US equity markets have fallen back sharply overnight while global rates have declined. The USD is modestly higher, although the NZD and AUD have outperformed amidst the reports on a possible US-China trade deal.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US equities, US rates and the USD were all higher on Friday, even in the face of disappointing economic data. The stronger USD backdrop saw the NZD slip a little to close the week around 0.68.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The USD is bid and US Treasury rates have pushed higher following stronger than expected US data. Thus, the NZD and AUD have slipped, with the NZD temporarily going sub 0.68 and the AUD going sub-0.71.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

There hasn’t been any particular theme to market moves over the past 24 hours. Equity markets have softened modestly while US and global rates have, in contrast, moved higher. GBP continues to outperform as the probability of a no-deal Brexit scenario recedes while the NZD and AUD have fallen. Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to the House has not been market-moving.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Market moves have been reasonably modest overnight. The exception has been the GBP, which moved sharply higher after Theresa May said she would give parliament the option of extending Article 50. Fed Chair Powell’s testimony didn’t break any new ground.