Markets Today

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Weaker Chinese economic data have seen a decent rally in US treasury yields amidst a risk-off tone. Commodity currencies have underperformed, with weak Australian employment data not helping.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The NZD and NZ rates have been the biggest movers over the past 24 hours as the market was positioned for an RBNZ rate cut that wasn’t delivered. The NZD has sustained the initial market reaction and has traded in a tight range overnight, hovering around 0.64. There has been a modest risk-off tone overnight that has seen global rates head lower.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets have remained listless, given the lack of news. US equities are probing fresh record highs while US treasury yields have remained tightly range-bound. The NZD sustained yesterday’s modest loss, ahead of an expected RBNZ rate cut today.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The week has begun on a quiet note, with a lack of news headlines and the US bond market closed for Veteran’s Day holiday. GBP and NZD lead the way in currency markets.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US-China trade deal headlines dominated Friday trading, but even with President Trump hosing down some inherent optimism, US equities still managed to closer higher, while US Treasury yields also nudged up. The USD’s yield advantage proved to be the swaying factor in currency markets, seeing broadly based gains, driving the NZD down further and ending at a fresh three-week low.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Further optimism on an imminent US-China trade deal has driven US equities up to a fresh record high and driven US Treasury yields up to a 3-month high. Higher risk appetite sees JPY underperform, but the NZD’s reaction has been inexplicably muted, lagging gains in the AUD and CNH.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets have been fairly listless with modest changes across FX, equity and bond markets. The NZD has traded a less than 30pip range over the past 24 hours, hovering around the 0.6375 mark.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Increasing optimism on a US-China trade deal and a stronger-than-expected US non-manufacturing ISM index have driven markets, with a chunky rise in UST yields and more curve steepening. Higher US rates have supported the USD, and this dynamic has more than offset the positive news for the NZD, seeing it trade back below 0.64.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equities and bond yields headed higher overnight following more encouraging comments from US officials on Phase-One US-China trade negotiations. The USD regained some of its losses from last week but remains range-bound while the NZD continues to trade just above 0.64. NZ rates experienced another sizeable rise yesterday, with rates at the short-end reaching their highest level since the August 50bp OCR cut.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

It was a risk-on session on Friday with positive noises on the Phase-One US China trade agreement and stronger-than-expected US economic data lifting the S&P500 and NASDAQ to fresh record highs. There was less movement in bond and currency markets. The USD remained near three-month lows while the NZD consolidated above 0.64. The week ahead features the NZ HLFS employment survey, the RBA meeting and US non-manufacturing ISM survey.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets have been traded with a risk-off tone overnight with equities falling, bond yields lower and the Japanese yen strengthening. This followed a Bloomberg report that a long-term US-China trade agreement would be difficult to achieve and a much weaker-than-expected Chicago PMI survey. The USD weakened sharply yesterday morning after Fed Chair Powell said the hurdle for hikes was very high and it has largely consolidated that move overnight. The NZD is back above 0.64, driven by the weaker USD and the market’s paring back of November OCR rate cut pricing, which is now around 50%.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

The Fed cut its cash rate by 25bps a short while ago but hinted at a pause in its easing cycle. There hasn’t been much move in markets though as investors wait for more colour from Powell’s press conference. Earlier in the session, the Bank of Canada surprised markets by signalling an easing bias, which pushed the CAD sharply lower. The NZD has traded a very narrow range the past 24 hours. The ANZ Business survey is the focus locally today.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets have consolidated overnight ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow morning. The US 10 year Treasury yield has drifted back slightly after reports that the Phase-One US-China deal might not be signed at APEC, although progress was still being made. Yesterday NZ rates moved sharply higher, playing catch-up after Monday’s holiday, as the market scaled back its probability of a November OCR cut to 75%. Currency moves have been subdued overnight, but the GBP received an initial boost after Labour dropped said it would support a December election.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Optimism over US-China trade talks has boosted the S&P500 to an all-time high overnight and global rates have continued to head higher. Currency movements have been more muted, although the NZD has been a notable underperformer since Friday afternoon. It’s a big week offshore with the FOMC and BoJ meetings, RBA Governor Lowe speaking tonight ahead of Australian CPI tomorrow, while US GDP, payrolls and ISM manufacturing are also released.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There has been plenty of newsflow overnight. The net result has been a broadly stronger USD, alongside JPY, suggesting a risk-off tone, with NZD and AUD underperforming, alongside a soft GBP. US equities are flat while global rates are down slightly.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Financial markets have been quiet overnight with minor changes in equities, bonds and currencies, not helped by a lack of data and news headlines. The NZD has trended higher overnight but at a pedestrian rate of 2-3pips per hour for a gain of 30pips to 0.6420.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of some key Brexit votes later this morning. Firstly, at 7am NZ time, the UK Parliament will vote on whether they agree on the “principles” of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. The vote is expected to be close, but narrowly pass. The next vote that comes at 7:30am NZ time is the programme motion, and is seen to be more important. It defines the timetable to enact the Brexit legislation, and whether the UK leaves the EU on October 31. Media report that this again will be a close vote, but could fail. Johnson threatened to abandon the Withdrawal Agreement Bill if Parliament voted against his proposed fast-track timetable and move to trigger a general election before Christmas. Even if both motions pass, then there’s still the thorny issue of what amendments are attached to the bill tomorrow.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Risk sentiment continues to improve, with optimism on a Brexit deal and a positive vibe on future US-China trade developments. Commodity currencies have showed some modest performance, seeing the NZD hover around the 0.64 mark. Global and NZ rates continue to track higher.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

On Friday, GBP continued to lead the way in currency markets, supported by increased confidence that Johnson’s Brexit deal would win the support of the UK Parliament. The USD remained under pressure helping the NZD and AUD reach a one-month high. The US yield curve continued to steepen.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Overnight, Brexit has been in the spotlight again, causing some market volatility. However, the net result is little change in GBP from this time yesterday, with doubt that a new negotiated deal will get the vote in UK’s Parliament. UST yields spiked higher, but have fallen back in line. Commodity currencies have outperformed against a backdrop of broadly based USD weakness.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Market optimism for a Brexit agreement continues to build, which has pushed the GBP to a five month high and supported risk appetite more broadly. The Brexit-driven strength in the GBP and a weaker than expected US retail sales report have combined to weaken the USD. The NZD got a short-lived boost from NZ CPI yesterday, but subsequent comments from RBNZ Deputy Governor Bascand, that OCR cuts were a “reasonable prospect”, has seen the NZD underperform over the past 24 hours.

BNZ Markets Today

Doug Steel -

A decent bout of Brexit optimism sent a wave of risk on sentiment through markets overnight despite some lingering concern around how much of a deal the US and China really did last week. From early last night, there were positive signs that a Brexit deal may be done this week. Bond yields and equities are higher, gold fell, and safe haven currencies are lower. The US dollar is broadly flat.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

The risk-on market moves that accompanied the US-China mini trade deal on Friday have partially unwound amidst growing scepticism about the agreement. Trading activity has been light however with both the US and Japan on holiday. The NZD has fallen 0.6% and is back at 0.63.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Positive market sentiment continued on Friday as the US and China agreed to a partial trade deal and the UK and EU agreed to intensify negotiations over a possible Brexit deal. Equity markets and bond yields rose sharply for the second day running as the market started to price-in a more positive economic outlook and investors rotated out of safe havens. The improvement in risk appetite led to falls in the JPY and USD, while the GBP had another big rise on Brexit optimism. The NZD was slightly stronger while NZ rates had a large move higher on Friday.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Hope for an interim US-China trade agreement or détente that averts further tariffs alongside hope that a Brexit deal might be achievable after all have fuelled a rise in risk appetite. Equity markets are higher and UST10s are up 6bps, while safe-haven currencies have underperformed. GBP is up over 1.7%.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Risk appetite has improved a bit on reports that China is keen on an interim trade deal focused on the agricultural sector, which sees US equities claw back some of yesterday’s losses, while US Treasury yields are higher. The currency market this week hasn’t been sucked into this back and forth mood music on US-China relations and movements remain small.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

More bad news ahead of US-China trade talks later this week has soured risk sentiment. US equities are down about 1%, UST yields are slightly lower and safe-haven currencies have outperformed. GBP is the weakest major as a Brexit deal is looking impossible at the upcoming EU summit. Fed Chair Powell’s speech – which could impact the market – has been pushed out and now won’t be released until 7:30am NZ time.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been a sleepy start to the new week with modest movements in asset prices. US equities are flat while the US yield curve has flattened as some expected policy easing is priced out of the curve. Most key currencies are little changed, but the NZD and AUD are down slightly.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

After an eventful week, Friday’s focus on the US employment report was an anti-climax, with a mixed report seeing only modest reaction to currencies and US rates. But with fears of another bad economic report allayed, US equities recovered strongly to unwind most of the loss seen earlier in the week.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Another weak US business survey, this time the ISM Non-manufacturing index, sparked a further sharp fall in bond yields overnight. Equities initially plunged on growing US recession fears, but the falls in Treasury yields and increase in Fed rate cut expectations led to a quick reversal and US indices are now higher on the day. The lower Fed rates outlook has hit the USD, which has fallen across the board. The NZD and AUD have outperformed.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have plunged and bond yields fallen sharply overnight as the fall-out from yesterday’s very weak Manufacturing ISM survey continued. Market sentiment hasn’t been helped by the WTO’s ruling on state subsidies for Airbus which means the US is permitted to levy tariffs worth $7.5b on EU imports. The NZD has performed well in spite of the risk-off backdrop and has pushed up to 0.6270. All eyes are on the non-manufacturing ISM survey which is released tonight.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Good Morning
There have been big moves in markets overnight after a very weak US ISM manufacturing survey, which fell to its lowest level since the GFC. US rates, which had been trading higher earlier in the day, plunged, while US equities and the USD turned down. The RBA cut its cash rate to 0.75% yesterday, as expected, but its reference to achieving “full employment” in the statement saw a sharp move lower in the AUD. The RBA statement and yesterday’s grim QSBO survey combined to push the NZD to a fresh four year low, but the turn-around in the USD has seen the NZD recover most of its earlier losses.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

The September quarter ended on a positive note, as equity markets brushed off reports from Friday that the US had discussed restricting investments in Chinese companies. The USD strengthened again, with the DXY index reaching its highest level since mid-2017, while bond yields were little changed. The NZD has underperformed over the past 24 hours, and reached a fresh four year low, after another miserable ANZ business confidence survey. All eyes are on the RBA rate decision this afternoon.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equity markets closed lower on Friday night after Bloomberg reported that the US administration was considering delisting Chinese companies in the US and restricting US portfolio flows into Chinese markets. The CNH also weakened on the report, although there was only a minor impact on the NZD and AUD. There was little net movement in FX and bond markets on Friday. It’s a big week ahead, with the RBA meeting tomorrow, the Chinese PMIs, ISM surveys and nonfarm payrolls, as well as the QSBO survey in NZ.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets are seeing a mild risk-off tone prevail with lower US equities and Treasury yields, as the week draws to a close, with US politics and the US-China trade war remaining the key themes. Currency movements have been modest, but notably the NZD has sustained the run-up seen after Governor Orr’s upbeat speech yesterday.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US politics has been a key driver of markets again with the inquiry into impeachment against President Trump remaining a focus. Markets have reversed course from yesterday’s price action, seeing US equities higher, US yields higher and a broadly based recovery in the USD. The NZD is back decisively below 0.63, with the post RBNZ OCR Review blip proving to be fleeting.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

After a sleepy local trading session there has been plenty of news to digest overnight – some hard line comments against China in Trump’s UN speech, an increased risk of impeachment of Trump, the UK Supreme Court ruling against the suspension of parliament, soft US economic data and an RBA speech by Governor Lowe. The net result is weaker US equities, lower US Treasury yields and a weaker USD.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

EUR and GBP have opened the week on a soft note, reflecting a much weaker PMI report for the former and Brexit fog for the latter. NZD has recovered some of last week’s losses although remains below 0.63. Lower European rates have dragged down US Treasury yields.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

A risk-off mood developed Friday night after hopes for a US-China trade deal receded as a delegation from China looked to return home earlier than planned. The S&P500 reversed course and closed down 0.5%, while the US 10-year rate fell 6bps to 1.72%. The NZD was already heading south well ahead of that announcement, marking fresh 4-year lows, and closed near that historical low of 0.6255.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The USD has reversed course after its post-FOMC rally, and is now back to pre-FOMC levels. GBP leads the way with positive vibes on Brexit continuing. The NZD hasn’t benefited from USD-weakness, falling in sympathy with the AUD after the Australian unemployment rate ticked higher. US rates are slightly lower for the day.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets were quiet ahead of the FOMC announcement this morning. The market has taken the statement as hawkish relative to expectations, more so after Fed Chair began speaking at the press conference. This sees the USD bid higher and US rates reversing the falls seen earlier in the day.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Oil prices have reversed course after it looks like Saudi oil production will be fully restored by the end of the month. The NZD and AUD have recovered losses seen during local trading, while EUR and GBP have reversed losses seen earlier this week. US equities are flat, while US Treasury yields are lower.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The week opened with the focus on the oil market after the attacks on Saudi oil production facilities on Saturday. Brent crude is currently up 14½% for the day, climbing higher overnight as new information comes to light. Market movements have been predictable, with CAD, NOK and safe havens outperforming, while the NZD has pushed lower. Global equities are modestly weaker, while global rates have pushed lower.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

On Friday, global bond yields continued to show sharp increases, with the US 10-year Treasury yield up 12bps to 1.90%. The big bond market sell-off still hasn’t perturbed US equity markets, with the S&P500 flat for the session and still flirting with record highs, although the rotation away from defensive sectors continued. The NZD was inexplicably weak against the backdrop of goodwill gestures on US-China trade relations and a stronger yuan, seeing it close the week below 0.64, while NZD/AUD closed below 0.93 for the first time since November.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

The ECB announced a 10bp rate cut and the resumption of its QE programme from 1st November at its meeting overnight. The EUR and German bond yields initially fell in response, but they quickly reversed course and now both are higher on the day. Market sentiment has been boosted by incrementally more positive news on the US-China trade front, which has boosted equity markets and the CNY, although the NZD is surprisingly lower on the day. The global bond sell-off has extended, despite the ECB’s actions.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

After rising sharply over the past week, global bond yields have stabilised overnight. The market is likely to remain in a holding pattern ahead of the eagerly awaited ECB meeting tonight at which the central bank is universally expected to announce new easing measures. Equity markets have moved higher while the USD has shown broad-based strength. The NZD continues to hover just above 0.64.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Global bond yields have continued their recent resurgence overnight, helped by an MNI report that the ECB might delay, or make conditional, the resumption of QE. Reports that China had offered to buy more US agricultural goods ahead of the October trade talks also supported rates. Equity and currency market moves have been contained.

BNZ Markets Today

Doug Steel -

Overnight markets have seen a mildly risk supportive session, although not universally so. Global bond markets meaningfully extended last week’s sell-off, safe haven currencies slightly underperformed, while commodity prices edged higher. Not so ‘in-theme’ were equity markets, with major indexes either up or down smalls.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets ended last week on a cautiously optimistic note despite the US payrolls report showing weaker than expected job growth. Global equities and US Treasury yields consolidated on Friday after their sharp rises the previous night. The NZD rose for the fifth consecutive day amid the more positive risk sentiment and ended the week above 0.64. NZ rates were up sharply across the curve on Friday, reflecting offshore moves the previous night.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

An announcement that US-China trade talks will kick off again next month and some positive US economic data have driven some chunky gains in equities and a big bond market sell-off, with UST yields up over 10bps across the curve. The NZD and AUD have sustained their gains made during local trading hours, while GBP continues its recovery on Brexit optimism.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Risk appetite has improved after the reduction in some geopolitical risks, with better news out of Hong Kong, Italy and the UK. Global equity markets are stronger, with the S&P500 currently up 0.9%. The USD (and JPY) has shown broadly based falls, with the market still digesting the very weak ISM manufacturing report a day earlier.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Good Morning
US equities, rates and the USD are much lower following a weak ISM manufacturing report. The NZD has recovered over half a cent from its low point yesterday afternoon to trade about 0.6325.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been a quiet start to the week with the US public holiday. Currencies show modest movements apart from overt GBP weakness, with nerves ahead of Parliament re-opening and speculation about a new general election.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There was plenty of economic data to digest Friday, but month-end hedging flows dominated trading activity. The NZD fell below 0.63 for the first time since 2015 but ended the week just above that mark. EUR was the weakest of the majors, not helped by soft inflation data and negative Italian politics. US equities and Treasuries were relatively flat.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equities and bond yields have bounced higher overnight after China indicated it wouldn’t retaliate to the latest import tariffs announced by Trump. Safe haven currencies have underperformed, while the CNH has appreciated and the AUD has outperformed. The NZD fell to a fresh, post-2015 low after yesterday’s ANZ Business survey, which showed confidence and own activity indicators at their weakest levels since the GFC.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

The main news overnight has been UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s announcement that the Queen’s speech will take place on 14 October, effectively suspending parliament for almost five weeks in the run-in to 31st October. The GBP plunged on growing fears that MPs would find it harder to prevent a no-deal Brexit, but it has since recovered around half those losses and there hasn’t been any contagion to broader risk assets. Equities are higher overnight while bond yields have drifted lower once again. The NZD has underperformed and yesterday reached its lowest level since September 2015.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets and bond yields have traded lower over the past 24 hours amidst growing scepticism about Trump’s claim of a weekend call between US and Chinese officials, although the moves have been reasonably modest. The GBP has appreciated on optimism that a no-deal Brexit might be prevented, while the NZD and AUD have underperformed against a mildly risk-off backdrop.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets and bond yields have staged something of a recovery over the past 24 hours after some more conciliatory comments from Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu on trade. The NZD reached its lowest level since 2015 yesterday morning, but it has since recovered and has outperformed overnight alongside the AUD. Safe haven currencies have weakened.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

While the spotlight was expected to be on Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday night, his keynote address ended up being overshadowed by a further escalation in the US-China trade war. China announced it would retaliate with tariffs on $75b of US imports, followed by Trump announcing that he would add an additional 5% tariff on all $550b Chinese imports. Equity markets plunged, bond yields fell sharply, safe haven currencies appreciated and the AUD and CNH underperformed. The USD weakened after Trump complained about the strong USD, raising speculation that the US could consider unilateral currency intervention. The NZD performed well amidst the risk-off backdrop, and ended the week at 0.64, supported by comments by RBNZ Governor Orr that suggested the bar for a September OCR cut is quite high.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There has been generally little price action in markets overnight, with flat equities and US Treasury rates but the NZD has sustained the weakness seen during NZ trading hours, and it touched a fresh multi-year low overnight. Meanwhile, GBP is up over 1% on Brexit optimism.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Currency markets remain listless. The NZD shows a slight downward bias and trades near 0.64, while the other majors show modest movements as well. The US 10-year rate is up 1bp at 1.57% after a peek above 1.60%, while US equities have been boosted by some decent earnings reports.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There hasn’t been much news for markets to trade on overnight, with Italian politics and Brexit making some headlines. Global equity markets have fallen after the previous session’s solid gains, while global rates have also reversed course and show falls across the board. Currency markets remain unexciting, with the NZD still tightly range-bound.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The new week has begun with a positive vibe, with some US companies allowed to do business with Huawei for another 90 days, and further speculation that Germany’s government will ease fiscal policy to pull its economy out of recession. Global equity markets have bounced higher and global rates are higher, while currency markets remain fairly unresponsive and the NZD has drifted down regardless.