BNZ Markets Today
A massive downward revision to US nonfarm payrolls only caused a temporary ripple in markets and US Treasury yields are modestly higher for the session. US equities are slightly higher and the USD shows a modest gain.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light but there has been some follow through of the price action seen on Friday night, following the softer than expected US payrolls report that supported the market’s view of the Fed restarting the easing cycle as soon as next week.
BNZ Markets Today
Weaker than expected US labour market data increased expectations for near term easing by the Federal Reserve and contributed to a rally across global bond markets. The weaker data weighed on equities. The S&P closed 0.3% lower after the index staged a modest recovery from the session lows. The US dollar was broadly weaker against G10 currencies. Oil prices declined ahead of the OPEC+ meeting that took place after the market close. Brent crude prices dipped towards US$65 at one point, the bottom end of the multi-month trading range.
BNZ Markets Today
A stronger US ISM services report didn’t flinch the bond market, with traders paying more attention to the softer labour market reports. Lower rates across the board have helped boost US equities. The USD has grinded broadly higher throughout the day, and the NZD has underperformed, falling to 0.5840 and lower on all the key crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
After coming under pressure in recent sessions, global bond markets got a reprieve, as weaker than expected US job openings data increased expectations for easing by the Federal Reserve. The recovery halted a bond market slide which has seen borrowing costs in some big economies reach the highest levels in years. Prior to the data, 30-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields had reached a record high of 3.29% and 30-year UK gilts yields increased to 5.75%, the highest level in more than twenty-five years.
BNZ Markets Today
Bonds and equities have been hit as investor appetite for both soured. Global rates are modestly higher across the board and US and European equities are lower, down more than 1%. The USD is broadly stronger, and GBP has underperformed, falling more than 1%. The NZD has fallen to 0.5860 while NZD/GBP is stronger.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets have begun the week on a very quiet note with the US closed for the Labour Day holiday.
There has been no market reaction to the federal appeals court ruling, after the close on Friday, that Trump had no legal authority to impose country tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The ruling is no surprise, and we said at the time of their imposition that the tariffs would be contested in court as there was no emergency to introduce them. The tariffs will remain for now and dragged out further in the courts, hence the market’s collective yawn at the decision.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equities fell on Friday, but major indices have made strong gains during the month. The S&P advanced 1.9% in August, its fourth straight month of gains. US consumption and inflation data was broadly in line with consensus estimates and didn’t alter expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates later in the month. After the weekly close, a US court has found most of the Trump administration’s tariffs to be illegal. However, the tariffs will stay in place pending a further appeal to the Supreme Court. A permanent halt on tariffs would reduce revenues which provide an offset to the administration’s tax cuts.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are probing fresh record highs, the US Treasuries curve has flattened and the USD is broadly weaker.
After the bell yesterday, Nvidia’s earnings report was broadly in line with expectations but the market focused on its data centre segment, where that fell a little short of expectations. Furthermore, the company excluded any AI chip revenue from China from its projections as it awaits further information from the US government codifying the recently imposed export tax on chips to China. The stock was down as much as 5% in afterhours trading yesterday but nearly all of that fall has been evaporated in today’s session.
BNZ Markets Today
US and European equity indices are little changed, as investors look ahead to key technology stock Nvidia’s results, which are due after the market close. The results will be a test for the artificial intelligence driven move that underpinned the rally in US stock indices. There was limited economic data to provide the market with direction. The US has increased import tariffs on India to 50% in response to its purchases of discounted Russian oil. Brent crude was little changed near US$68 per barrel. The treasury curve extended its recent steepening trend and G10 currencies are firmer against the US dollar.
BNZ Markets Today
Following President Trump’s “firing” of Fed Governor Cook, US Treasury yields are lower and the curve is steeper, while the USD shows a modest broadly-based fall. US equity investors saw the dip in futures as a buying opportunity and the S&P500 shows a small gain.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a typically quiet start to the new week with little newsflow to drive markets. Markets have settled after the significant price action seen in the wake of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish pivot in his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday night. Most economists have changed calls to include a 25bps cut at the Fed’s next meeting in September, with the caveat that it remains data dependent. A strong rebound in non-farm payrolls or an ugly CPI print ahead of the meeting could still derail the prospect of a rate cut, hence the market is pricing “only” 21bps for the meeting.
BNZ Markets Today
There were large moves across financial markets in response to US Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s widely anticipated address at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. Powell signalled the Fed may cut rates in September triggering large gains in equity markets, a rally in treasuries and a sharply weaker US dollar. The S&P closed 1.5% higher and the Russell 2000 index of small cap US equities gained almost 4%. Credit spreads narrowed.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets are trading cautiously ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech tonight, with lower US equities and moderately higher US Treasury yields. Currency movements have been modest. The NZD has traded a tight range overnight, flat around 0.5820, but has recovered on some key crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
Technology stocks weighed on the performance of US equity indices for a second day as investors rotated into value sectors like consumer goods, energy companies and healthcare. The Nasdaq is around 1% lower and close to 3% below the recent peak. Global bond yields are little changed with limited data to provide the market with direction. The US dollar and treasury yields declined after President Trump continued to pressure Fed officials.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light, but US equities are weaker, led by a notable fall in tech stocks. The risk-off vibe has seen US Treasuries well supported, with modest falls in rates. Commodity currencies have underperformed, resulting in the NZD probing levels just below 0.59 again.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a typically quiet start to the week for markets, with small movements across the board.
Focus is currently on the meeting at the White House between European leaders and President Trump to discuss the next steps in the Russia-Ukraine war, following the Trump-Putin meeting on Saturday. In a show of force and support for Ukraine President Zelensky, the heads of the UK, Germany, France, Italy and the EU have all made the effort to attend the meeting at short notice. Later today we’ll hear more about what offer European leaders might present Putin to support an end to the war.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended last week with a modest pullback amid mixed economic data. The closely watched US-Russia Summit in Alaska didn’t have any clear implications for markets. US retail sales rose in July and will help ease some of the concerns about the health of US consumers’ spending following the extreme economic uncertainty in April and May. However, the softening labour market and the expected pass through to prices from tariffs, suggests a meaningful acceleration is unlikely.
BNZ Markets Today
A hot US PPI print dampened the mood in the market, driving up US rates, but US equities recovered most of their fall. Higher rates drove broad gains in the USD and the NZD has underperformed, down 1% overnight and lower on key crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sensitive markets remain well supported with limited economic data to provide markets with direction. The MSCI All Country World Index rose to an all-time high, supported by expectations for rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. In Japan, the Nikkei-225 hit a fresh record high while the Euro Stoxx gained close to 1%. Meanwhile, the S&P reached a fresh intra-day record high, just below 6,500, before retracing. Global bonds moved lower in yield and the US dollar declined against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
In-line US CPI figures showing less impact of tariffs on goods prices than feared, supported lower US short-term rates. With relatively steady long-term rates, the Treasuries curve steepened. US equities show solid gains to fresh record highs, while the USD is broadly weaker.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week has begun with little change in US equities, a small fall in US Treasury yields and a modest broad-based lift in the USD. President Trump has been at the centre of various news flow – his name appears a record-breaking ten times in this report – but none of which has been particularly market moving.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended last week on a firm note. The S&P gained almost 1% and closed just below the record high from the end of July, having fully retraced the post labour market selloff. There was limited first tier data or other catalysts to provide the market with direction. The Euro Stoxx index was little changed while the Nikkei gained 2.0% after the US agreed to end ‘stacking’ on universal tariff and cut car levies. Global bonds closed higher in yield and absolute moves in currency markets were small.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest, with US equities showing a moderate fall, slightly higher Treasury yields and modest net movements in currencies, with the largest move being a stronger GBP after a hawkish BoE policy update. The NZD is little changed near 0.5940.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity indices are broadly higher. The S&P’s advance has almost fully retraced the decline after the weak services ISM print. President Trump said Indian imports will be subject to an additional 25% tariff, for its ongoing purchases of Russian oil, on top of the 25% rate they already face. The Swiss President was not successful in lowering the 39% tariff rate after travelling to Washington to present a proposal to US officials. Global bond markets are modestly higher in yield and the US dollar is weaker against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities show a modest fall, weakening after a poor ISM services survey but the impact on Treasuries and the USD was minimal. US Treasury yields are slightly higher led by the short end, while the USD is flat for the day. The NZD is close to 0.59, as it was this time yesterday.
BNZ Markets Today
After a spicy end to markets last week following the shocking downward revision to US non-farm payrolls and Trump’s sacking of the head of the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, the new week has begun with mixed results. US equities have bounced back strongly, with the S&P500 up 1.3% with an hour left of trading – investors seeing dips in the market as a buying opportunity and not fearing signs that the labour market might be much weaker than previously thought. European markets have also bounced back, although not to the same extent, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index up 0.9%
BNZ Markets Today
There were large moves across global markets into the weekly close. US labour market was weaker than expected, and combined with a soft manufacturing ISM, contributed to weaker risk sentiment and falls across equity markets. Rising geopolitical tensions between US and Russia also impacted risk appetite. US equity futures, which had already fallen close to 1% ahead of the data, extended lower with the cash index closing 1.6% lower. Stocks in Europe and Asia also declined with the Euro Stoxx notably closing nearly 3% lower. The US dollar fell sharply, global rates declined, and oil prices dropped ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P reached a fresh intra-day record high, amid solid earnings from big technology companies, but retraced earlier gains in afternoon trading. Major European stock markets declined with the Euro Stoxx index falling 1.3%. President Trump said he would delay the higher rate of reciprocal tariffs on Mexico by 90 days. The US is yet to announce agreements with several countries including Canada, India, China and Taiwan. Global bond markets are modestly lower in yield and the US dollar gained against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
As expected, the Fed kept policy on hold and there were only minor tweaks to the release. There was a nod to growth slowing, noting economic activity “moderated in the first half of the year”, previously characterised as expanding at a solid pace. “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated”, the statement removing the reference to uncertainty as having diminished. In a repeat, “labour market conditions remain solid” and “inflation remains somewhat elevated”.
BNZ Markets Today
The key market movement overnight has been a notable rally in US Treasuries, led by the long end of the curve, with rates down between 4-9bps. There have been a number of potential drivers listed by traders explaining the move. Tomorrow, the US Treasury will announce its debt-issuance plans and the expected strategy is one that keeps a lid on longer-term yields, by preferring to issue cheaper short-term debt. Traders might also be reducing short positions, ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy update tomorrow, where there is a chance of the door being opened for a September rate cut.
BNZ Markets Today
After digesting the weekend news of a US-EU trade deal, the net result has been a slump in the euro, a modest fall in European equity markets and a modest fall in European bond yields. The USD is broadly stronger, reversing last week’s loss. The NZD has sustained a move back below 0.60, while NZD/EUR is up ½% to 0.5150.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended last week on a positive note with the S&P hitting fresh all-time highs set against the backdrop of a solid earnings season and hopes for further trade deals as the August 1 deadlines looms. More than 80% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded profit estimates. The S&P traded up towards 6,400 and closed 0.4% higher on the day. European equities were little changed and major Asian indices retraced following recent solid gains. The US dollar was generally firmer against G10 currencies and global bond markets were stable.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets have extended recent gains with the S&P trading to a fresh intra-day record high and major European and Asian stock indices advancing. The Nikkei posted a further strong gain closing 1.6% higher. Global bond yields are higher amid resilient US economic data. The ECB left rates on hold as expected and the market trimmed expectations for further easing. The US dollar advanced against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sensitive assets remained well supported amid optimism about the US reaching deals with key trading partners ahead of the August 1 deadline. A deal was announced with Japan yesterday and there is a growing expectation of a similar deal with the European Union. The developments contributed to further gains for global equities. The S&P reached a fresh record high near 6350 and the Euro Stoxx closed 1% higher. Asian stocks rose the most in a month. Treasury yields moved higher, and the US dollar was mixed against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities recovered from a dip on the open and are little changed. The S&P is consolidating near record highs with limited economic data or other catalysts to provide direction. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he will meet with Chinese officials next week, for a third round of trade talks, and he predicted several deals between now and the August 1 deadline. The US dollar is weaker against G10 currencies and treasury yields are lower.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities have started the week on a positive footing with the S&P trading to a fresh intra-day record high. The index extended recent gains above 6300 with limited first-tier economic data to provide the market with direction as investors look ahead to a busy week for corporate earnings. US equities have traded to new record levels despite uncertainty whether US trading partners will be able to reach a deal before the latest tariff deadline on 1 August. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx index closed modestly lower.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets closed last week on an uneventful note, with US equities remaining flat around record highs, slightly lower US Treasury yields and modest net moves in the currency market during the Friday night session.
BNZ Markets Today
Stronger than expected US economic data have supported US equity markets and the USD, without doing any harm to Treasuries.
US retail sales figures were stronger across the board, with the headline index rising 0.6% against an expected gain of 0.1%. Stronger auto sales inflated the result, but even excluding these, core sales were robust. The data are in nominal terms, so includes the impact higher inflation, but the market still saw the data as conveying a picture of robust spending, despite policy uncertainty and high mortgage rates.
BNZ Markets Today
There was a bit of intraday volatility when government officials suggested President Trump had expressed support for the idea of firing Trump at a discussion with Republican lawmakers. This saw weaker equities, lower Treasury yields and a weaker USD. However, less than an hour after the media had caught onto this story, Trump said he was not planning on doing anything, “I don’t rule out anything, but I think it’s highly unlikely. Unless he has to leave for fraud.” Trump said he had spoken to lawmakers about the concept of firing him and asked what they thought, “Almost all of them said I should. But I’m more conservative than they are”. Markets subsequently reversed course.
BNZ Markets Today
US CPI data were close to market expectations, confirming that the impact of higher tariffs is beginning to lift inflation. Headline inflation rose 0.3% m/m, driving the annual increase up three-tenths to 2.7% while the ex-food and energy measure rose 0.2%, seeing the annual increase tick up to 2.7%. For items where tariffs have been imposed, there was visible sign of higher inflation, including toys, household furnishings, sports equipment and appliances all inflating at multi-year highs.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been a muted market reaction to Trump’s weekend threat to raise tariffs on the EU and Mexico. US equities are higher and US Treasury yields show a minimal lift in rates. The USD is broadly stronger, although movements have been modest. The NZD has sustained the modest fall during NZ trading hours.
BNZ Markets Today
Friday ended the week as it began, with President Trump issuing more threats to raise tariffs. This saw equity markets trade on a more cautious note and contributed to a modest broad-based lift in the USD. Bond investors weren’t impressed with the messaging and global rates rose, seeing the US 10-year rate close near the top end of its weekly trading range, above 4.4%. Risk appetite is likely to remain suppressed as the new week begins after Trump threatened higher tariffs for the EU and Mexico over the weekend.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow remains light, with nothing in the way for global equity markets to probe fresh record highs. US Treasury yields are slightly higher. Against a backdrop of higher risk appetite, commodity currencies have outperformed, with the AUD the best performing.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light, but equity investors continue to pay little regard to Trump’s tariff threats, with US and European markets stronger overnight. US Treasury yields have reversed course, with modest falls. Net currency movements have been small and there was little market reaction to the RBNZ’s no-change policy decision yesterday.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets have settled somewhat after the initial shock yesterday of Trump starting to announce the punitive tariffs that will be in place from 1 August for countries where trade negotiations haven’t gone well. US equities are flat, US Treasury yields are higher, and the curve is steeper again. Net currency movements have been modest, with the AUD a clear outperformer after the RBA shocked the market by not cutting rates.
BNZ Markets Today
Trump’s tariff policy is back in the headlines, as the key 9-July date approaches, which was the deadline for the end of the pause in reciprocal tariffs that were announced on Liberation Day. Ahead of that date, threats of higher tariffs have begun to be rolled out and markets are not liking it, although the new deadline for negotiation is now 1-August. US equities are lower, US Treasury yields are higher with a steeper curve, and the USD is broadly stronger, with the NZD probing sub -0.60.
BNZ Markets Today
Last week ended on a quiet note, with US markets closed for the Independence Day holiday. There was a whiff of risk aversion in the air as investors looked towards 9-July, the day when the 90-day pause in Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy expires. Ahead of this date, a number of tariff-related stories were doing the rounds on Friday, with follow-up reports during the weekend.
BNZ Markets Today
A stronger than expected US employment report sent US rates higher across the curve. Markets closed early ahead of the US Independence Day holiday, with the S&P500 up 0.8% to a fresh record high. The USD is broadly stronger, seeing the NZD nudge down to 0.6065.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P remained well underpinned and recorded a new record high after President Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam. European equities also gained with the Euro Stoxx index advancing 0.7%. UK gilts and the pound fell on fiscal concerns, which weighed on the long end of government bond markets, including US treasuries. Brent crude prices increased almost 2% to US$69, ahead of an OPEC+ meeting this weekend, which is likely to see an increase in production quotas.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are little changed with the S&P starting the month near flat and consolidating near a record high. Treasury yields increased, and the US dollar rebounded from earlier losses to be little changed. President Trump’s tax and spending bill has passed the Senate. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the bill would increase the deficit by $3.3tn over the next decade.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are ending the month on a positive footing with the S&P trading to a fresh intra-day record high. Investor sentiment has been underpinned by signs of progress on trade negotiations and the prospect of easier policy monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Bloomberg reported that the European Union is prepared to accept a trade deal, that includes a universal 10% tariff on most exports, with some key exemptions. The S&P has gained close to 10% in the June quarter outperforming the Euro Stoxx, which has risen less than 2%, and other major global indices.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P closed at fresh record high on Friday in a whipsaw session. Equities dipped temporarily after news that President Trump had terminated trade discussions with Canada in response to the country’s planned implementation of a digital services tax targeting American companies. A late rebound saw the S&P close 0.5% higher aligning with the solid gains made by European indices. Treasury yields were little changed, and the US dollar was mixed against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
With geopolitical risk no longer a market focus, US equities have continued to push higher, while speculation that the next appointed Fed Chair will be dovish and announced early, supported a backdrop of lower US rates and a weaker USD.
BNZ Markets Today
Market conditions are relatively calm with only modest price action, with a lack of newsflow and the investors believing that the war between Iran and Israel is largely over for now.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets have made solid gains following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran which has provided optimism for a lasting resolution to the conflict. Brent crude fell towards US$67 per barrel and below the level ahead of Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites. The S&P looked past weak consumer confidence data, and advanced more than 1%, with the index closing in on its all time high reached back in February. Treasury yields declined weighing on the US dollar.
BNZ Markets Today
After the US became directly involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel, following its surgical bombing of three nuclear sites in Iran on Sunday, there was focus on how markets would react at the start of the new week. Risk assets opened weaker and oil price spiked higher, but in overnight developments, there has been a complete reversal of that move.
BNZ Markets Today
The further escalation in the Middle East conflict over the weekend, after the US attacked Iranian nuclear sites, increases the likelihood of a further spike in oil prices and will weigh on investor risk appetite. Brent crude futures had dipped towards US$74 on Friday, amid increased hopes for a diplomatic solution for the Iran-Irael conflict but subsequently rebounded towards US$76. The S&P closed modestly lower while the Euro Stoxx advanced 0.7%. The US dollar was firmer against a basket of developed market currencies. Treasury yields declined following dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller.
BNZ Markets Today
In the lead up to the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision this morning, US equities traded modestly higher and treasury yields were lower across the curve. Currency markets were generally stable, although the Swedish krone fell sharply, after the Riksbank cut rates to 2.0% and signalled more easing is possible. Brent Crude prices are little changed around US$76 per barrel, having recovered from an earlier dip, after President Trump said Iran had reached out and wants to negotiate.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment is weaker as the US has become more involved in the Israel-Iran conflict. Global equities are weaker, US Treasury yields are slightly lower, and the USD is broadly stronger, with the NZD falling towards 0.60.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week began with market focus on the Middle East, amidst the fourth day of missiles firing between Israel and Iran. With Israel’s aerial attack dominating, the conflict not spreading to include other countries, and oil infrastructure not targeted, the market has already adopted a sanguine view and risk assets have recovered.
BNZ Markets Today
There was a risk-off tone across financial markets which began on Friday afternoon after Israel launched unilateral strikes against Iran’s nuclear programme. The subsequent retaliation by Iran further escalated the conflict. The S&P declined 1%, after recovering off the session low, on hopes of a de-escalation via diplomatic channels. However, the US-Iran meeting in the weekend was cancelled, and with no sign of a let-up in hostilities, risk sensitive assets face a challenging start to the trading week. Gold prices advanced above US$3430 pre ounce.