Markets Today

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Good Morning
Financial markets are quiet and prices are largely tracking sideways, with little newsflow. GBP is softer as hope fades for an end to the fog of uncertainty over Brexit.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Good Morning
Financial markets had a quiet end to last week, with modest changes in currencies, modest upside to equity markets and some further downside pressure to global rates.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

GBP is choppy but generally well supported as focus is directed towards the UK Parliament as it decides the path towards Brexit. The AUD and NZD are weaker after underwhelming China data yesterday, while JPY is weaker leading up to the BoJ’s announcement today. Bonds and equities show little movement.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Risk sentiment remains positive, with US equities up again and testing the highs of the year, although bonds have been largely unmoved. The GBP remains very volatile, and has bounced back strongly ahead of the UK parliamentary vote later this morning on whether to rule out leaving the EU without a deal on March 29th – it should easily pass. NZ rates had another sizable decline yesterday, following similar moves in Australia after weak consumer confidence data, and the 10 year swap has reached a record low.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

A slightly weaker than expected US core CPI release overnight has triggered a fall in the USD and US rates. Risk sentiment remains relatively buoyant however, and US equities have pushed modestly higher. The GBP remains volatile and has reversed yesterday’s gains after Attorney General Cox said his legal advice on the backstop agreement was unchanged, meaning PM May’s Brexit deal is almost certain to be voted down in parliament later today. The NZD was again the top performing currency and NZD/AUD is now testing 0.97.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets are trading with a risk-on tone overnight, with global equities markets up strongly. US retail sales bounced back from weakness in December, but US rates have been largely unmoved. Most currencies are little changed to start the week, although the GBP has recovered ahead of Theresa May’s Brexit vote tonight amidst speculation she might have secured some concessions from the EU.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

A mixed US non-farm payroll report, featuring a mere 20k job gain but faster wage growth, had little net impact on markets, with US equities and bond yields close to unchanged on the day. The USD was broadly lower on the day, although the bulk of those losses had occurred pre-payrolls. The NZD was the top-performing currency on Friday.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The ECB’s sobering economic outlook triggered further weakness in global equity markets, lower global bond rates and a lower euro. Other key currency movements have been modest, with the NZD and AUD close to where they were yesterday morning.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US equities and rates are lower this morning as we continue to see a lack of follow-through from last week’s gains. The NZD has performed okay against the backdrop of weaker AUD and CAD currencies, following weak Australian GDP data and a less hawkish Bank of Canada.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Market movements overnight have been modest, with US equities tracking sideways, and US rates up slightly. For the session, the USD shows broadly based gains, supported by stronger data, which has seen the NZD track consistently under the 0.68 mark.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

After initially rising on the back of reports that a US-China trade deal was in the “final stages”, US equity markets have fallen back sharply overnight while global rates have declined. The USD is modestly higher, although the NZD and AUD have outperformed amidst the reports on a possible US-China trade deal.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US equities, US rates and the USD were all higher on Friday, even in the face of disappointing economic data. The stronger USD backdrop saw the NZD slip a little to close the week around 0.68.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The USD is bid and US Treasury rates have pushed higher following stronger than expected US data. Thus, the NZD and AUD have slipped, with the NZD temporarily going sub 0.68 and the AUD going sub-0.71.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

There hasn’t been any particular theme to market moves over the past 24 hours. Equity markets have softened modestly while US and global rates have, in contrast, moved higher. GBP continues to outperform as the probability of a no-deal Brexit scenario recedes while the NZD and AUD have fallen. Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to the House has not been market-moving.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Market moves have been reasonably modest overnight. The exception has been the GBP, which moved sharply higher after Theresa May said she would give parliament the option of extending Article 50. Fed Chair Powell’s testimony didn’t break any new ground.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have moved higher once again after Trump confirmed yesterday that he was delaying higher tariffs on Chinese imports. Chinese equities moved into a bull market and the CNY reached its highest level since July. Against this backdrop, the NZD and AUD are the top performing currencies overnight.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets finished last week in a positive mood, on growing expectations of a US-China trade deal. Equity markets ended the week higher, while bond yields fell. The USD was weaker across the board, with commodity currencies the top performers. The NZD more-than-fully reversed its earlier losses after RBNZ Deputy Governor Bascand said that the central bank could cut if the OCR if the proposed increase to bank capital requirements tightened monetary conditions, although his statement was heavily caveated. Over the weekend, Theresa May said she was postponing the meaningful vote on her Brexit deal – again – although parliament will still have a vote on extending the Article 50 deadline date this week.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Good Morning
A couple of blows to the AUD has seen it tumble and drag down the NZD in its wake. Weaker global economic data haven’t helped which have seen weaker European and US equity markets. Despite the risk-off tone, global rates have pushed higher.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets are quiet ahead of the FOMC minutes to be released at 8am NZ time and with little newsflow. Currency movements have been modest, the S&P500 is barely positive, while global rates are little changed.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

After its long weekend, US equities are modestly higher while US Treasury yields have nudged lower. The USD has a soft underbelly, which sees the NZD and AUD push higher, both supported by talk of yuan stability as part of the US-China trade deal. GBP has been the strongest of the majors.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Trading has been light with US markets closed. There has been little change in global rates or futures for US Treasuries and US equities. NZD has peeled off after a rally during local trading hours. GBP has outperformed despite more political shenanigans.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Risk assets performed well at the end of last week, with another US government shutdown averted and more positive vibes on US-China trade developments. Commodity currencies outperformed alongside GBP, while US and European equities made decent gains. Global rates were flat on Friday.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Global rates fell overnight after a much weaker than expected US retail sales release raised concern about the extent of slowing in the US economy. The retail sales release also hit equity markets, which had initially been supported by reports that the US was considering a 60 day extension to the trade war ceasefire. The S&P500 has recovered to be flat on the day however. The NZD has outperformed amidst further short-covering in the wake of Wednesday’s RBNZ MPS while NZ swap rates rose again yesterday.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

The positive sentiment of the past few trading sessions, on hopes of an extension to the US-China trade war ceasefire and an agreement to fund the US government, continues to linger. Global equity markets have moved higher again, although US indices are now only slightly up on the day. The NZD is the top performing currency over the past 24 hours, after the RBNZ MPS was seen as less dovish than expected, although it has eased back overnight from the highs reached yesterday. NZ rates were higher across the curve yesterday as the market pared back OCR rate cut expectations.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets are trading with a risk-on tone as hopes grow for an extension to the trade war ceasefire between the US and China. Democratic and Republican negotiators also came to an agreement in principle to avert another US government shutdown, although Trump still needs to sign it off. Global equities and bond yields have moved higher. The USD has fallen back from its year-to-date highs overnight amidst the improvement in risk sentiment. The NZD is unchanged ahead of the RBNZ today.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets moved higher across Asia and Europe overnight, and are slightly up in US, ahead of the resumption of US-China trade talks this week. The USD has again strengthened overnight, with the various USD indices at, or close to, their highest levels this year. The NZD is down slightly on the day against the USD, but is up on all the crosses, on short-covering ahead of the RBNZ meeting tomorrow. Similarly, NZ rates bounced modestly yesterday on profit-taking ahead of the RBNZ meeting.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Global markets traded with a risk-off tone for most of Friday after Trump said he wasn’t planning to meet President Xi before US tariffs on China are due to step-up on March 1st. Equity markets fell across Asia and Europe, although a late bounce in US equities left them marginally higher on the day. The NZD was little changed on the day, but NZ rates experienced another sizable fall, with the 10 year NZ government bond yield hitting a record low level.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

A risk-off tone has enveloped markets, with more reminders of the weaker global growth backdrop. US equities are currently down 1.5% after a similar fall in Europe, while US and Germany 10-year rates are lower. The NZD is little changed from the NZ close but is still the weakest performer after the negative reaction to softer labour market data yesterday.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

In light trading conditions, US equities are slightly weaker and US rates are slightly lower. In currency markets, AUD is the clear underperformer, following RBA Governor Lowe’s speech yesterday afternoon, with some negative spillover effect for the NZD, even as dairy prices continue to surge.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

On a slow news day, US Treasury yields have extended their rise following the strong US data reports on Friday, supporting a broadly-based, albeit modest, rally in the USD, while the S&P500 shows modest gains.

BNZ Markets Today

Jasn Wong -

Strong US data on Friday saw US Treasury rates move 4-7bps higher across the curve. The rise in rates tempered the lift in US equities, while currency movements were generally modest, apart from some softness in the yen.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Events Round-Up
US: Fed funds target rate (upper bound): 2.5% vs. 2.5% exp.
CH: Non-manufacturing PMI, Jan: 54.7 vs. 53.8 exp.
CH: Manufacturing PMI, Jan: 49.5 vs. 49.3 exp.
EC: GDP (q/q%), Q4: 0.2 vs. 0.2 exp.
US: Employment cost index (q/q%), Q4: 0.7 vs. 0.8 exp.
CA: GDP (m/m%), Nov: -0.1 vs. -0.1 exp.
US: New home sales (k), Nov: 657 vs. 570 exp.
US: Initial jobless claims (k): 253 vs. 215 exp.
US: Chicago PMI, Jan: 56.7 vs. 61.5 exp.

Good Morning
Markets are trading in risk-on mode. US equities have extended gains made in the aftermath of the dovish FOMC meeting yesterday morning, helped by better corporate earnings results. US Treasury yields have continued to move lower as the market digests the Fed’s switch to a neutral bias, while the USD is trading at a four-month low. The NZD has increased to its highest level since early December amidst broad-based USD weakness.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equities have had a good night after Apple’s earnings results weren’t as bad as some feared and Boeing’s earnings beat expectations by a significant margin. Focus now turns to the FOMC meeting at 8am, followed shortly after by Chair Powell’s press conference. The AUD has outperformed after a marginally better than expected CPI release, and this has seen NZD/AUD drift back to 0.95. The NZD is again broadly unchanged against the USD.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Events Round-Up
NZ: Trade balance (NZ$m), Dec: 264 vs. 150 exp.
AU: NAB business conditions, Dec: 2 vs. 11 prev.
US: Conference board consumer confidence, Jan: 120.2 vs. 124.6 exp.

Good Morning
Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of the big event risks over the remainder of the week. These include the FOMC meeting tomorrow, US-China trade talks which kick off tonight, payrolls on Friday, and earnings reports from some of the large US tech firms (including Apple later this morning). Currency moves have been reasonably modest, but the NZD/AUD has pushed up to near 18 month highs after a disappointing NAB business survey. The NZD is little changed against the USD.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Global equities reversed all their gains from Friday after Caterpillar’s earnings missed expectations and chipmaker Nvidia downgraded its revenue guidance for this year. Both firms cited weaker growth in China. There is a risk-off tone to markets more broadly, with Treasury yields falling modestly and the Japanese yen outperforming. The NZD is unchanged this week, and continues to hover close to its year-to-date highs.

BNZ Markets Today

Doug Steel -

An air of optimism spread through markets on Friday night with a risk on vibe seeing equities, commodities, and bond rates higher. This despite more poor economic news out of Europe. The US dollar weakened.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Events Round-Up
AU: Employment change (k), Dec: 21.6 vs. 18.0 exp.
AU: Unemployment rate (%), Dec: 5.0 vs. 5.1 exp.
GE: Markit manufacturing PMI, Jan: 49.9 vs. 51.5 exp.
GE: Markit services PMI, Jan: 53.1 vs. 52.1 exp.
EC: Markit manufacturing PMI, Jan: 50.5 vs. 51.5 exp.
EC: Markit services PMI, Jan: 50.8 vs. 51.5 exp.
EC: ECB deposit facility rate (%), Jan: -0.4 vs. -0.4 exp.
US: Initial jobless claims (wk to 19 Jan): 199k vs 218k exp.
US: Markit manufacturing PMI, Jan: 54.9 vs. 53.5 exp.
US: Markit services PMI, Jan: 54.2 vs. 54.0 exp.

Good Morning
Soft euro-area PMI data and downside growth risks seen by the ECB have dragged down European rates and the euro, spilling over into lower US Treasury yields. Against that backdrop, the USD is broadly higher, while the AUD has underperformed after NAB raised mortgage rates.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The NZD is stronger after yesterday’s CPI report while GBP is stronger on reducing risks for a no-deal Brexit. Outside those moves, there is little other price action. US equities are retreating after a positive open.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Events Round-Up
NZ: Perform. of services index, Dec: 53.0 vs. 53.4 prev.
UK: Unemployment rate (%), Nov: 4.0 vs. 4.1 exp.
UK: Avg weekly earnings (y/y%), Nov: 3.4 vs. 3.3 exp.
GE: ZEW survey expectations. Jan: -15.0 vs. -18.5 exp.
US: Existing home sales (m), Dec: 4.99 vs. 5.24 exp.

Good Morning
Market sentiment has deteriorated, with global equities and bond yields lower. Most major currencies haven’t showed a lot of movement. Commodity currencies are slightly weaker, except the NZD which has managed to hold its ground, while GBP is the strongest of the majors.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Events Round-Up
CH: Retail sales (y/y%), Dec: 8.2 vs. 8.1 exp.
CH: Industrial production (y/y%), Dec: 5.7 vs. 5.3 exp.
CH: Fixed assets (y/y%), Dec: 5.9 vs. 6.0 exp.
CH: GDP (y/y%), Q4: 6.4 vs. 6.4 exp.
Good Morning
Markets are quiet with the US celebrating the Martin Luther King Jr. public holiday. The NZD has tracked ideways overnight after drifting lower during the Wellington public holiday.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Events Round-Up
AU: Home loans (m/m%), Nov: -0.9 vs. -1.5 exp.
EC: Core CPI (y/y%), Dec: 1 vs. 1 exp.
US: Philadelphia Fed business opinion, Jan: 17 vs. 9.5 exp
US: Initial jobless claims (k), Jan: 213 vs. 220 exp.

Good Morning
US equities have managed to inch a little higher overnight, despite the continued US government shutdown, disappointing earnings from Morgan Stanley and speculation that Trump might impose tariffs on auto imports. The NZD has underperformed again, as the market awaits CPI data next week.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Risk sentiment continues to gradually improve, with better than expected earnings from US banks helping to support equity markets. Theresa May’s deal was voted down by a record margin, but the market sees a shift towards a softer Brexit and away from a no-deal scenario; GBP has bounced strongly from yesterday morning’s lows. The NZD has underperformed overnight and the NZ 2 year swap rate made a fresh low yesterday.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Risk sentiment has improved overnight on news of tax cuts in China, with global equity markets higher and US bond yields inching up. But the main event is the UK parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal at 8am NZT, which will set the tone for risk assets and currencies in the day ahead. The GBP has weakened, and the USD strengthened, ahead of the vote. The NZD has moved lower despite an improvement in NZ business confidence and increase in dairy prices.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Weak Chinese trade data released yesterday generated renewed concerns about global growth, pushing equity markets lower. Global rates are little changed however and currency movements have generally been contained. The GBP remains volatile ahead of the parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s deal tomorrow (UK time).

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equity markets were unchanged on Friday, as risk sentiment continued to recover in the New Year. Global rates moved lower amid more dovish comments from Fed officials. Meanwhile, the NZD rose strongly on growing hopes of a US-China trade deal.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Market movements have been modest in the current session, with not a great deal to trade on. Commodity currencies are little changed overnight against a backdrop of a small bid returning to the USD against the other majors. US rates and equities are little changed.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Risk appetite continues to recover, with increased optimism that the US-China trade war will be resolved and some dovish Fed speakers adding to the case for a Fed pause in the tightening cycle. The USD is weaker across the board, while the NZD has been the best performer of the majors.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Happy New Year. In this first Markets Today for the year we begin with an overview of key events and market movements since Christmas. In illiquid market conditions we’ve seen some heightened volatility in equity and bond markets, while currency markets have been well-behaved apart from a “flash crash” a week ago.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Global equity markets are sinking deeper into the red, the US yield curve flattens further and the USD has weakened overnight, reversing some of its post-Fed gains yesterday. This leaves the NZD higher in overnight trading but still 1% down since this time yesterday.