Markets Today

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

A sense of calm has returned to markets after the coronavirus-driven turmoil of recent days. US equities and Treasury yields are higher. While most currency movements have been modest, the NZD has underperformed a little, alongside GBP.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The spreading coronavirus has dominated markets with a significant risk-off move evident. Equity markets have fallen, some more than 2%, while global rates are much lower. Currency movements have been well contained apart from notable falls in the AUD, NZD, CNY and Scandi currencies.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US equities ended the week on a soft note and global rates were lower, with traders worried about the escalation of the deadly Wuhan coronavirus. Currency movements remained well contained, with JPY slightly outperforming alongside the USD on Friday night.

BNZ Markets Today

Doug Steel -

Risk off sentiment has percolated through markets overnight. Equities and bond yields are lower, while JPY has lifted. Commodity prices are generally lower, although safe-haven gold is an exception.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Equity and bond markets haven’t shown much signs of life overnight and the same goes for most currencies, apart from notable strength in GBP on stronger data and a weaker CAD on a dovish Bank of Canada.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Reports of further cases of coronavirus have dominated headlines over the past 24 hours. Asian equity markets and global rates fell but US equities have rebounded over the past few hours and are now up on the day. Currency moves have been muted.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There is a dearth of news out there, with the Martin Luther King holiday in the US, while the Wellington anniversary holiday yesterday made for an uneventful local session. This is reflected in market pricing, with little change in US equity and Treasury futures and a lack of currency movements.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets ended last week on a positive note, with equities making new highs and bond yields nudging higher. The GBP was the worst performing currency as markets scaled up BoE easing expectations after a dire retail sales report. A stronger USD on Friday helped push the NZD down to 0.6615. The next 24 hours should be very quiet, with Wellington Anniversary Day taking place and the US closed for Martin Luther King Day tonight.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

It has been more of the same overnight, with equity markets making new highs but subdued moves in bond yields and currencies. Better-than-expected US data has supported the USD, but the NZD has outperformed and is up on the day.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equities continued to power ahead to fresh record highs overnight with the US and China finally signing the long-awaited Phase-One trade deal. In contrast, global rates have fallen, after a very weak UK CPI release led the market to price a better-than-even chance of a BoE rate cut later this month. Despite broad-based USD weakness, the NZD has again underperformed and is unchanged from this time yesterday.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Market moves have been subdued overnight ahead of the signing of the US-China Phase-One trade deal tonight. A lower-than-expected US core CPI release has led to a small fall in global rates while equities have moved sideways despite a strong start to the earnings season by the big US banks. Currency moves have been small, but the NZD has underperformed overnight.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets have begun the new week in a positive frame of mind, with the S&P500 recovering 0.5% to take it back near last week’s record high and global rates pushing higher. Positive risk sentiment sees JPY underperform, alongside a soft GBP as weak data support an easing in policy by the BoE. The NZD and AUD currencies are relatively flat against some strength in CNY.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The new year has started with some market volatility as geo-political tensions in the Middle East have increased. That said, the point-to-point market movements since our last daily report on 20 December are unremarkable. Major currencies are mostly within 0.5% of those pre-Xmas levels, global equities are up just over 1% and, perhaps more notably, NZ and US bond rates are lower (15bps and 10bps respectively).

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

There’s not too much to report overnight with markets in the process of winding down before the Christmas break. The S&P500 has nudged up to a fresh record high while Treasury yields are little changed, near five-month highs. The USD is generally weaker, with the NZD breaking above 0.66 a short while ago. NZ GDP data yesterday was broadly in-line with expectations.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets are well-contained as trading volumes soften ahead of the holiday season. US equities are flat near record highs while global rates are higher and the US 2s10s yield curve is the steepest since July. Currency movements have been modest, with a hint of CAD strength and GBP weakness.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The key market mover has been a slump in GBP, as fear returned of a possible no-deal Brexit at the end of next year – sigh, the story of 2019 that keeps on giving. Other market movements have been minor apart from some noticeable independent softness in the NZD and AUD.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have made fresh record highs and bond yields have increased overnight as markets digest the US-China Phase-One trade agreement announced on Friday. The positive sentiment created by the trade deal overshadowed another batch of disappointing European PMIs. Currencies, including the NZD, have been quiet so far this week. The ANZ business survey is released today ahead of GDP on Thursday.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

The US-China Phase-One trade deal was announced on Friday night, although the reduction in US tariffs on Chinese imports was less than had been suggested by an earlier WSJ report. There were sharp reversals lower in global rates, the CNH and, to a lesser extent, the AUD and NZD. Equity markets, in contrast, retained most of their earlier gains. The GBP was the star performer in currency markets after Boris Johnson won a majority in the UK general election.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

“Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!” That one tweet by you know who has had the biggest impact on markets this week, trumping the other key risk events. US equities rose to a fresh record high, while the US 10-year treasury yield climbed as much as 11bps to 1.90%. The impact of the tweet on currency markets has been more muted, and has actually supported the USD, with reduced tariffs seen to be positive for the economy.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets have been quiet ahead of the FOMC announcement in the next hour or so. The NZD and AUD have trended higher since the NZ close for no obvious reason, seeing the NZD back up probing the high seen earlier this week. Ahead of the FOMC, the USD is slightly on the soft side, while US treasury yields have drifted lower.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There has been a lot of economic data and newsflow over the past 24 hours but financial markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of more important events later in the week. US equities are flat, US treasury yields are slightly higher and the NZD is slightly weaker.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

In a quiet start to the week, US equities are flat and there have been only small changes in global rates and currencies.
It’s a fairly action-packed week ahead, but loaded towards the end of the week, with the FOMC meeting Thursday morning NZ time, the ECB meeting Thursday night and the UK election results coming in Friday. All this comes ahead of a scheduled increase in Chinese import tariffs by the US on 15-December on about $160bn of mainly consumer goods.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

A much stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report on Friday night set the scene for increases in bond yields, the USD and equity markets. The NZD rose again on Friday, despite this broad-based USD strength, with upbeat comments from RBNZ Deputy Governor Bascand providing support. The NZD/AUD cross broke above 0.96 for the first time since August. All eyes are on HYEFU this Wednesday for the details of Labour’s “significant” fiscal package.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Markets have largely been in a pre-payrolls holding pattern overnight. Treasury yields have nudged up, equity markets are little changed, and the USD has continued to drift lower. Yesterday, the RBNZ softened some aspects of its original bank capital proposal, which led the market to pare back OCR rate cut expectations and boosted the NZD. The NZD is trading at a four-month high against both the USD and AUD, with the NZD/AUD cross pushing up towards 0.96.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US equities and bonds reversed course from the previous night’s chunky movements after more trade news headlines, this time with a more positive tone. The US 10-year treasury yield is up 6bps. In currency markets, GBP and CAD lead the way, while the NZD has nudged higher.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US equities have slumped 1% and US treasury yields have rallied hard after President Trump’s comments to reporters about the US-China trade deal. Reaction in currency markets has been more muted. Modest USD weakness has prevailed, helping keep the NZD’s head above the 0.65 mark.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

After what was an exceptionally quiet November, there have already been some big moves to kick off December. Global rates have increased sharply, on increased talk of fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, equity markets and the USD have declined after a weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing survey. The NZD is up more than 1% against the USD and has risen on all the crosses, with NZD/AUD breaking above 0.95, after Grant Robertson signalled a “significant” fiscal stimulus over the weekend.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Friday again saw limited moves across asset classes (oil excluded) with market participation and trading activity lighter than usual after Thanksgiving. Friday brought to an end an exceptionally quiet November in the FX market, with the NZD recording its second-narrowest trading range in 20 years. There is more on the cards for this week, with the final outcome from the RBNZ bank capital review announced, the US ISM surveys, payrolls, and Australian GDP all released. Over the weekend NZ Finance Minister Grant Robertson foreshadowed a “significant” fiscal stimulus, so rates should open higher and steeper this morning.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The US Thanksgiving holiday has meant markets have barely moved, making a dull week even duller. All key currencies are trading within 0.2% of levels this time yesterday, while US equity and bond futures show little movement.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The run of daily record highs for US equities continues, the latest milestone supported by some net positive US data releases, which have also seen UST yields and the USD nudge higher. The NZD has remained stuck in its familiar range and sits around 0.6425.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Another day, another fresh high in the S&P500, although gains have been modest. Currency markets remain range-bound while global rates have ticked lower.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Our celebration yesterday of a new week after last week’s snooze-fest in markets has proved ill-considered as the new week has produced more of the same. While there has been a bit of life in equity markets, currencies and bond markets generally show little movement. GBP has outperformed on polling showing a small increase in the chance of a majority Conservative government.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Last week ended on a fairly quiet note. EUR and GBP underperformed, following weak PMI data while the NZD continued to trade in a tight range. US treasury yields were little changed against a backdrop of lower yields for the UK and euro area.

BNZ Markets Today

Brendan Marsh -

Day five of the week, the weekend nearly upon us and the NZD finds itself still tied to the US64cent level, exactly where we started the week having traded barely a half cent range.

BNZ Markets Today

Brendan Marsh -

Day five of the week, the weekend nearly upon us and the NZD finds itself still tied to the US64cent level, exactly where we started the week having traded barely a half cent range.

BNZ Markets Today

Brendan Marsh -

We open this morning with FOMC minutes on the horizon (NZT 8:00am).

There’s been so much from Powell (FOMC press, Semi-annual Testimony – twice) and a myriad of Fed speakers in past weeks, all generally speaking to the on hold view. While there will be some interest in the diversity of views, there otherwise shouldn’t be any news as such in the release.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Market moves have been modest again overnight amidst little fresh news. Bond yields have fallen modestly while equity markets are little changed. The AUD has risen overnight, brushing off what were initially seen to be dovish RBA minutes, and this has dragged the NZD above 0.6420.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

There have been few fresh developments overnight, with the exception of a report that China was growing pessimistic about the prospect of a trade deal, and market moves have been reasonably modest. The GBP has outperformed in the FX market as the Conservatives have extended their lead in the polls. The NZD has traded a very narrow range to start the week and domestic rates were virtually unchanged yesterday.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equity indices closed last week at fresh record highs amidst more positivity around a US-China Phase-One trade deal. Safe haven currencies fell against the USD while commodity currencies outperformed. Domestically, RBNZ Governor Orr and Assistant Governor Hawkesby reinforced the message that the Bank is on hold for now, although it could cut the OCR again if circumstances change.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Weaker Chinese economic data have seen a decent rally in US treasury yields amidst a risk-off tone. Commodity currencies have underperformed, with weak Australian employment data not helping.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The NZD and NZ rates have been the biggest movers over the past 24 hours as the market was positioned for an RBNZ rate cut that wasn’t delivered. The NZD has sustained the initial market reaction and has traded in a tight range overnight, hovering around 0.64. There has been a modest risk-off tone overnight that has seen global rates head lower.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets have remained listless, given the lack of news. US equities are probing fresh record highs while US treasury yields have remained tightly range-bound. The NZD sustained yesterday’s modest loss, ahead of an expected RBNZ rate cut today.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The week has begun on a quiet note, with a lack of news headlines and the US bond market closed for Veteran’s Day holiday. GBP and NZD lead the way in currency markets.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US-China trade deal headlines dominated Friday trading, but even with President Trump hosing down some inherent optimism, US equities still managed to closer higher, while US Treasury yields also nudged up. The USD’s yield advantage proved to be the swaying factor in currency markets, seeing broadly based gains, driving the NZD down further and ending at a fresh three-week low.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Further optimism on an imminent US-China trade deal has driven US equities up to a fresh record high and driven US Treasury yields up to a 3-month high. Higher risk appetite sees JPY underperform, but the NZD’s reaction has been inexplicably muted, lagging gains in the AUD and CNH.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets have been fairly listless with modest changes across FX, equity and bond markets. The NZD has traded a less than 30pip range over the past 24 hours, hovering around the 0.6375 mark.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Increasing optimism on a US-China trade deal and a stronger-than-expected US non-manufacturing ISM index have driven markets, with a chunky rise in UST yields and more curve steepening. Higher US rates have supported the USD, and this dynamic has more than offset the positive news for the NZD, seeing it trade back below 0.64.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equities and bond yields headed higher overnight following more encouraging comments from US officials on Phase-One US-China trade negotiations. The USD regained some of its losses from last week but remains range-bound while the NZD continues to trade just above 0.64. NZ rates experienced another sizeable rise yesterday, with rates at the short-end reaching their highest level since the August 50bp OCR cut.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

It was a risk-on session on Friday with positive noises on the Phase-One US China trade agreement and stronger-than-expected US economic data lifting the S&P500 and NASDAQ to fresh record highs. There was less movement in bond and currency markets. The USD remained near three-month lows while the NZD consolidated above 0.64. The week ahead features the NZ HLFS employment survey, the RBA meeting and US non-manufacturing ISM survey.