BNZ Markets Today
Liberation Day has arrived and in a couple of hours (from 9am NZ time) we’ll find out where President Trump and his team have landed on applying reciprocal tariffs. US equities and Treasuries had a rollercoaster session overnight, with much weak risk sentiment showing a sharp reversal and both equities and rates are higher. The NZD has sustained the gain seen during NZ trading hours and sits comfortably above 0.57.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity futures have rebounded from a soft session in the Asian time zone yesterday as US tariffs loom over markets. The S&P is up around 0.5% in afternoon trade. Asset markets are likely to remain on edge in the leadup to ‘Liberation Day’. US treasury secretary Bessent said President Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs at 8am tomorrow (NZT). Treasury yields extended lower, and the US dollar was generally weaker against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week has begun in the same fashion as last week ended, with weaker risk appetite as investors count down the days to Liberation Day, now just two sleeps away. Global equity markets are weaker, and commodity currencies have underperformed, seeing the NZD tumble below 0.57.
BNZ Markets Today
Weak risk sentiment contributed to a large fall in US equities and an outperformance of safe haven assets into the end of last week. Concerns about the widening trade war and US economic data, which pointed to slowing consumption and higher inflation, also weighed on sentiment. The S&P closed 2% lower while treasury yields dropped sharply across the curve. The yen outperformed within G10 currencies and gold prices have hit a new record high above US$3080 per troy ounce.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets are little changed in afternoon trade, after President Trump pressed ahead with tariffs on car manufacturers as part of a widening trade war, which weighed on share prices in the sector. The S&P oscillated around flat in the absence of first tier economic data. European indices closed lower with the Euro Stoxx falling 0.7%. Treasuries edged higher in yield while the US dollar is mixed against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
There was a soft risk tone overnight with US equities reversing some of the gains from earlier in the week. The S&P is close to 1% lower in early afternoon trade amid further tariff uncertainty. It was reported that President Trump will announce taxes on US car imports this morning, ahead of the broader imposition of tariffs, next week. Treasury yields moved modestly higher, and the US dollar was mixed against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest, with flat US equities, a small fall in US Treasury yields and small broadly-based gains for major currencies against the USD.
After the latest talks in Saudi Arabia between the US and Russia regarding the war in Ukraine, the US said Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea and to work out mechanisms for implementing their ban on strikes against energy infrastructure. The Kremlin confirmed the Black Sea ceasefire and said it was dependent on sanctions relief for banks and companies involved in agriculture exports. The agreement resulted in oil prices falling after some gains were made overnight, with the net result being Brent crude showing a modest fall for the day to just below USD73 a barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week has begun with higher risk appetite, supporting a strong lift in US equities and pushing up US Treasury yields. However, there has been no positive spillover into the NZD, which shows a modest fall, while JPY has underperformed.
BNZ Markets Today
Friday saw an uneventful end to the trading week, with a lack of newsflow to drive market prices. Markets look to be in a holding pattern ahead of 2 April, which President Trump calls “Liberation Day”, the day when his reciprocal tariffs begin to take effect. Speaking at the White House, Trump said there will be flexibility on the forthcoming tariffs. “I don’t change, but the word flexibility is an important word”.
BNZ Markets Today
In the wake of the Fed’s policy update yesterday, US Treasuries are well supported, with the market comforted by Chair Powell seeing the impact on inflation of higher tariffs as “transitory”. We thought Powell might have avoided that word, given the Fed’s view of inflation being transitory during the COVID episode proved to be wrong, but the market seems to be buying into the narrative.
BNZ Markets Today
In the lead up to the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision this morning, US equities advanced while treasury yields and US dollar moved higher, in the absence of first tier economic data. Commodity markets were subdued with gold prices consolidating near record highs above US$3000 per troy ounce and brent crude was stable near US$71 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
After two positive days, US equities are back in the red, with the S&P500 down 1% in early afternoon trading, weighed down by the mega techs. US Treasury yields continue to consolidate. The 10-year rate has traded a 4.27-4.33% range and currently sits at the bottom end, down a touch from the NZ close.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets are on a positive footing to start the week, following on from the strong recovery in US markets on Friday. The S&P500 is up 0.6% in early afternoon trading, with the IT sector a laggard. The Euro Stoxx 600 index rose 0.8%.
President Trump will speak with President Putin on Tuesday, with Trump saying “a lot of work” had been done over the weekend ahead of the planned conversation. Putin has so far pushed back against the US-brokered plan for an immediate ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia war.
BNZ Markets Today
Investor risk appetite recovered into the end of last week. After the S&P had previously entered a correction, following the 10% fall from its February peak, the index rebounded strongly and closed the session 2% higher. The announcement of a deal by German politicians to proceed with a massive fiscal expansion supported European stocks. Chinese equities also advanced, led by consumer shares. Policy makers have outlined steps to boost consumption. US treasury yields moved higher while the US dollar was broadly weaker against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
More tariff threats, a possible US government shutdown and doubts over a Ukraine-Russia peace deal are all overhanging the market, resulting in weaker risk appetite – US equities are down significantly again, US Treasury yields are lower, and the yen has outperformed. The NZD is flirting with the 0.57 level.
BNZ Markets Today
Ongoing global trade tensions remain a focus for markets. The White House confirmed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium would come into effect yesterday, without exemptions for any US trading partners. This prompted a response from the European Union which launched countermeasures on €26 billion of US imports. US equity markets are higher in afternoon trading though price action remains volatile. There was a muted response to softer than expected US CPI data.
BNZ Markets Today
President Trump’s tariff agenda continues to dominate market price action, with a ratchetting up on pressure against Canada driving further weakness in US equities and a weaker CAD.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light to start the week but increased anxiety over President Trump’s policy agenda, particularly tariffs and slashing Federal government spending, continues to impact the market, with much lower equities and Treasury yields falling. Of note, President Trump wouldn’t rule out his policies causing a recession. On a Sunday Fox news interview he said “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is big”.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets rebounded from initial losses to close 0.5% higher with US labour market data closely matching expectations. US treasury yields moved higher as equities recovered while European bond markets ended little changed after the large selloff in previous sessions. The US dollar extended its decline against European currencies. Brent crude stabilised above US$71 per barrel and gold prices were stable, with data revealing China has expanded its reserves, for the fourth consecutive month in February.
BNZ Markets Today
News on tariffs continues to inject volatility into markets. Soon after we went to press yesterday the White House announced a one-month exemption for automakers that comply with the North American trade agreement known as USMCA, which drove stronger US equities into the close. In overnight news, Commerce Secretary Lutnick told CNBC that President Trump is likely to defer his 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for all goods and services covered by USMCA and President Trump confirmed this an hour later for Mexico, and we await any announcement for Canada. Trading in US equities has been choppy, and the market is falling rapidly as we go to print, with the S&P500 down around 2%.
BNZ Markets Today
There have been large moves across European markets after Germany revealed plans to reform its debt brake to allow for more defence and infrastructure spending. This contributed to a significant increase in European yields, a stronger euro and large gains for European equity indices. The Dax closed more than 3% higher. This provided a contrast with more subdued price action in US markets where the S&P is modestly higher.
BNZ Markets Today
Hey Grok, President Trump has just imposed new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. Give me a witty limerick to begin my daily report:
“A tariff from Trump, oh so bold,
On Canada, Mexico, and China bestowed,
With trade in a spin,
The markets begin,
To dance to a tune yet untold!”
Yesterday morning President Trump confirmed that 25% import tariffs on Canada and Mexico (with Canadian energy products enjoying a reduced 10% tariff) and an increased 10% tariff for China would indeed take effect from 4 March, as proposed. The news sent markets into a tailspin, with a weak close for US equities, lower Treasury yields, and the CAD and Mexican peso capturing the brunt of the FX reaction.
BNZ Markets Today
There is increased optimism in Europe after UK PM Starmer hosted European leaders at the weekend in a bid to support Ukraine. The UK and France said they would lead a European effort to forge a peace plan to present to President Trump. There was discussion of taking more responsibility for funding Europe’s defence. French President Macron proposed a one-month ceasefire “in the air, sea and on energy infrastructure”, but the word is that Europeans do not agree with this plan.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities staged a late-session rally on Friday to close 1.6% higher and edge back to positive returns for 2025. The market rebound was set against several macro cross currents including rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Ukraine, soft US consumption data and further developments on trade policy. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Mexico had proposed matching US tariffs on China and urged Canada to do the same. US treasuries rallied and the US dollar closed higher.
BNZ Markets Today
Equity markets are weaker and the USD is broadly stronger after Trump will impose an additional 10% tariff rate on Chinese imports next week and, after all, the proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico will also take effect. The NZD and AUD have underperformed, with spillover from a weaker yuan. The NZD is down 1% from this time yesterday to 0.5640.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light but in breaking news Trump said Canada and Mexico tariffs – proposed at 25% – would go into effect 2 April. This is yet another pushback, from the original 1 February start date that was subsequently pushed out to 4 March. The timing of 2 April would coincide with the proposed start date for a whole host of other tariffs, subject to the various trade reports that will land on Trump’s desk due 1 April. Trump also said tariffs on products from the EU like autos and “other things” will be 25%. Other details will be forthcoming.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment has weakened further, evident in price action across most markets. US equities are weaker for a fourth day, US Treasury yields have fallen to fresh 2025 lows, with the 10-year rate down some 10bps. JPY has outperformed and commodity currencies have underperformed, although falls have been modest, with the NZD tracking down towards 0.57.
BNZ Markets Today
After the selloff into the end of last week, US equity futures recovered in Asian trade, but the earlier rebound wasn’t sustained after a soft regional manufacturing survey. The S&P is little changed in afternoon trading. Stocks in Europe also declined with the Euro Stoxx index closing 0.7% lower. US treasuries rallied and the US dollar made gains against G10 currencies. Brent crude prices edged higher towards US$75 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
US and European equity markets are weaker, retreating from recent record highs. The US S&P500 is down 0.7% in early afternoon trading, driven by financials and consumer discretionary stocks. Lower than expected revenue and earnings forecasts for the year ahead from consumer bellwether Walmart got the market’s attention as the company gave a cautious outlook. Management cited “stretched” consumer wallets and, ahead of tariffs, said “we are in an uncertain time”. Walmart’s stock price is down over 6% for the day. The Euro Stoxx 600 index fell 0.2%.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities fell sharply, and treasuries rallied amid rising investor risk aversion, after weaker than expected activity in the services sector raised concerns that political uncertainty is weighing on growth. The S&P closed 1.7% lower. The US dollar was generally stronger against G10 currencies despite the weaker data. Oil prices fell with Brent trading back towards US$74 per barrel, 3% lower on the day.
BNZ Markets Today
US equites are flat in afternoon trade in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts to provide direction. US treasuries are little changed, and outperformed European fixed income markets, which moved higher in yield after hawkish comments from an ECB official. President Trump said he would likely impose tariffs on cars, semi-conductors and pharmaceutical imports of around 25%. An announcement is expected in early April. European stocks retraced from a record high with the Euro Stoxx index falling 1.3%.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest, with global rates slightly higher and the USD modestly stronger. The NZD has been the weakest of the majors over the past 24 hours, in the lead-up to today’s RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement. US equities are relatively flat, while the Euro Stoxx 600 index rose 0.3% to yet another record high.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets are quiet and newsflow is limited, with US markets closed for the President Day’s holiday.
Following moves by the White House to negotiate with Russia to end the Ukraine war and VP Vance’s forthright speech to European leaders over the weekend that signals less US involvement in European defence, EU leaders are convening in an emergency meeting to discuss the Ukraine war and ways to boost European defence spending. The Euro Stoxx 600 index rose 0.5% to a fresh record high, with strong gains in defence stocks. S&P500 futures are flat.
BNZ Markets Today
A significant downside surprise to US retail sales data contributed to rally in treasuries and weighed on the US dollar. Equity markets were less impacted with the S&P oscillating in a narrow range and ultimately closing little changed as US investors looked ahead to a public holiday on Monday. European equities closed lower while the Hang Seng extended its recent strong run and advanced 3.7%. Brent crude prices were little changed near US$75 per barrel and gold prices were also stable after strong gains since the beginning of January.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets are trading in the afterglow of President Trump’s chat with the Russian and Ukrainian Presidents to begin negotiations to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Other market moving events have been the US PPI report, which was stronger than expected but with weak components that feed into the more important PCE deflator, and Trump’s forthcoming announcement on reciprocal tariffs. Equity markets are stronger, global rates are lower, and most currencies are stronger against the USD, although the NZD and AUD have lagged the move.
BNZ Markets Today
Much stronger than expected US CPI inflation data were market-moving, driving higher US rates, a stronger USD and weaker US equities. Some of this reversed with the other market moving event being President Trump’s call with President Putin, with talk of negotiations to end the Russia/Ukraine war.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets gained in the absence of economic data or other catalysts as the investors look ahead to key US inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to US lawmakers later the week. The S&P is 0.7% higher in afternoon trading and there were decent gains for European equity indices with the Euro Stoxx advancing 0.6%. Global bond yields are modestly lower, and the US dollar was broadly stable against the major FX pairings.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity and government bonds came under pressure after solid labour market data reduced expectations about the extent the Federal Reserve will be able to ease monetary policy this year. Weak consumer sentiment and concerns about inflation also weighed on investor risk appetite. The S&P fell to the session lows and ultimately closed 1% lower, after it was reported President Trump intended to issue reciprocal tariffs this week, in a further escalation of his trade war. The US dollar gained against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities continue to push higher with modest gains while the US 10-year rate is down 7bps from the NZ close before the Waitangi Day holiday, albeit modestly higher for the current trading day. GBP has been the weakest of the majors, JPY has been the strongest, and the NZD has been range-bound between 0.5650-0.57.
BNZ Markets Today
Investor risk appetite has recovered since President Trump delayed the implementation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada by a month despite an escalation in trade tensions with China. The delay raised hopes that tariffs represent a negotiating tool of the new US administration rather than a final objective. The S&P is 0.7% higher, and more than 2% above the low, reached after the gap weaker on Monday morning. Treasury yields are modestly lower after US job openings fell while the US dollar is broadly weaker.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week began with the fallout from President Trump’s announcement Friday on tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the US, under the auspices of a national emergency regarding illegal immigration and drugs entering the US. As markets opened, the USD soared and equity futures plunged, while the US Treasuries curve flattened. These moves have shown some reversal overnight after Trump agreed to delay the tariffs on Mexico by a month.
BNZ Markets Today
Financial markets were volatile into the global close amid conflicting news on timing for the implementation of tariffs on US imports. Confirmation that tariffs would be set for Canada and Mexico at 25%, China at 10%, and begin this week, saw equities retrace earlier gains. The S&P closed 0.5% lower. G10 currencies also saw large swings. US treasuries were marginally higher in yield, while European bonds rallied, after softer than expected regional inflation data.
BNZ Markets Today
US asset markets are little changed despite data showing solid economic activity in the December quarter. The S&P is marginally higher on the day while US treasury yields are unchanged. The Euro Stoxx gained more than 1% and Eurozone bond yields fell as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its policy rate. Gold prices reached an all time high just below US$2,800 per troy ounce.
BNZ Markets Today
US markets are broadly stable in the absence of first-tier economic data as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision this morning (NZT). The S&P is modestly weaker and down close to 0.3% in early afternoon trade. Stock indices in Europe advanced with the Euro Stoxx closing 0.6% higher. Global bonds are little changed, and the US dollar is marginally stronger against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities recovered from the sharp fall the previous session, which was driven by concerns that cheaper artificial intelligence models, could impact US dominance in the technology. The S&P is up 0.6% in afternoon trade with a larger rebound in the Nasdaq index. Markets in Europe also gained with the Euro Stoxx advancing 0.4%. US treasuries edged higher in yield, partially reversing the sharp falls, from the start of the week. The US dollar consolidated gains against global currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Weak risk sentiment has dominated markets to begin the new trading week. US equity market futures fell in Asia, and saw further losses overnight, before staging a partial recovery from the lows. The losses were led by technology stocks reflecting concerns that unexpected advances by a Chinese AI company DeepSeek, could challenge the US’s technical edge in artificial intelligence. The S&P dropped close to 3% at one point with larger falls in the Nasdaq. Global bond yields declined, and defensive currencies outperformed.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets navigated the first week of Trump’s presidency unscathed, with little net change in Treasury yields and the S&P500 up 1.7% for the week, reaching a fresh record high in early trading before ending Friday down 0.3%. The main casualty was the USD, with the DXY index down 1.7% for the week, its largest weekly decline in 14-months.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements for the day were uninspiring until President Trump spoke virtually to an audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos. His comments saw Treasury yields nudge down, a weaker USD and lower oil prices. After closing at a fresh record high yesterday, the S&P 500 shows a small gain in early afternoon trading.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been an uneventful trading session overnight, with no key economic releases and nothing new to drive the market.
The S&P500 is up 0.8%, on track to break the early-December record high, powered by a 2.3% gain in the IT sector. This followed yesterday’s “massive” announcement of President Trump unveiling a $100b AI infrastructure project that could rise to $500b, in partnership with Softbank, Oracle, OpenAI and others. However, there are already doubts about the scale of the project or whether it will get off the ground, with Elon Musk saying “they don’t actually have the money” referring to some of the partners. Gains for the S&P are narrow and most sectors show falls.
BNZ Markets Today
On day 1 of Trump’s presidency the market got a taste of things to come over the next four years, with some off-the-cuff comments during a signing of executive orders that jolted the market. When asked by a reporter about tariffs he said he was thinking in terms of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and “I’ll think we’ll do it on February 1st”. In the hours ahead of his inauguration his advisors were feeding reporters that tariffs would be enacted in a managed way so this comment was surprising. It isn’t clear whether Canada and Mexico can stave off tariffs by negotiation over the next week or so. One positive factor though to come on day 1 was that China doesn’t seem to be in the crossfire for tariffs immediately and Trump said he wasn’t considering an immediate universal tariff.
BNZ Markets Today
Donald Trump has just been sworn in as the 47th President. In the opening lines of his inauguration address he highlighted that he will be putting America first. He indicated his first measures as President, declaring a national emergency at the southern border with Mexico and thereby zeroing in on curbing illegal immigration. He next talked about addressing inflation to rapidly bring down costs and prices. He will declare a national energy emergency to “drill baby drill”.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended the week on a strong note, with the S&P500 closing up 1.0%, taking the gain for the week to 2.9%. Themes for the week were a strong start to the earnings season, led by the banking sector, benign CPI inflation data, dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller and, while Treasury yields nudged higher on Friday, the 10-year rate still fell 13bps for the week to 4.63%.
BNZ Markets Today
The biggest market moving event overnight was some dovish comments by Fed Governor Waller which triggered a fall in interest rates after an earlier lift. In an interview with CNBC, Waller said “the inflation data we got yesterday was very good…if we continue getting numbers like this, it’s reasonable to think rate cuts could happen in the first half of the year”. He added that he wouldn’t entirely rule out a cut by March and, based on the FOMC’s median estimate of the neutral policy rate, three or four cuts this year are possible, depending on incoming data.
BNZ Markets Today
Weaker than expected UK and US CPI data have supported global bond markets, driving down rates and supporting equity markets. USD weakness after the CPI report reversed course, so a lift in the NZD to 0.5650 wasn’t sustained. The yen is the strongest of the majors, supported by lower global rates and the BoJ building the case for a possible rate hike next week.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets are little changed despite an unexpected slowing in US PPI data, with the market looking ahead to the more impactful CPI data, which is released this evening. Intra-day gains for the S&P after the PPI data have faded and the index has slipped into negative territory in afternoon trade. European equities closed higher with the Euro Stoxx up 0.5%. Treasury yields are marginally higher while the US dollar is weaker.
BNZ Markets Today
This is the first Markets Today for 2025. We wish all our readers a Happy New Year.
Global equities began the week with a soft tone as markets extended the moves seen in the aftermath of the strong US labour market data on Friday. S&P futures traded lower in the Asian session, and the index dropped close to 1% on the open, before retracing some of its losses. Treasury yields continued to move higher, and the US dollar remained well supported. Oil prices reached the highest level in five months following fresh US sanctions against Russia’s energy industry. Brent crude traded up towards US$81.50 per barrel.