BNZ Markets Today
US Treasury yields are lower, led by the short end, the USD is weaker and US equities are higher, following comments by Fed Governor Waller which seemed to support the market narrative that the Fed’s tightening cycle was over. The NZD has pushed up to fresh highs, approaching 0.6150.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to the week, as the US returns from holiday. US equities are currently flat, US Treasuries show a modest fall in yields across the curve and currency movements have been small. The NZD is trading little changed from last week’s close after a brief look just over 0.61 overnight, a fresh three-month high.
BNZ Markets Today
It was a subdued end to the trading week across global markets in the absence of first-tier economic releases and with a holiday-shortened session for US markets. The S&P was near unchanged, and closed 1% higher on the week, which was the fourth straight weekly advance. The US Dollar extended recent declines, global bond yields moved higher and oil prices fell after OPEC+ delayed a scheduled meeting amid a dispute about output quotas.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets are quiet, with the US on holiday but European bond yields have pushed higher, with slightly better than expected PMIs, a backdrop of hawkish ECB commentary and Germany suspending its debt limit all in the mix. Currency movements have been modest overnight, and the NZD has held onto its small gain seen during local trading hours and currently sits around 0.6050.
BNZ Markets Today
US jobless claims and inflation expectations data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines, while providing broad support for the USD. Thus, the NZD hasn’t managed to hold onto its recent gains and has fallen to just over the 0.60 mark.
BNZ Markets Today
Overnight trading conditions have been uneventful, but the NZD has managed to hold on to most of the gains seen during local trading hours from the tailwind of stronger Asian currencies. The US 10-year rate has consolidated near its recent two-month lows, with the drift down in global rates providing further support to the yen.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets continue to consolidate recent gains. The S&P is up 0.5% in early afternoon trade while major European indices were close to unchanged. The Nikkei reached a 33-year intra-day high yesterday before closing down 0.6%. Japanese stocks have advanced almost 30% this year, underpinned by strong company results, a weak Yen and progress on corporate governance. Global bond yields are marginally higher, and the US dollar has extended recent losses.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities made modest gains on Friday in the absence of first-tier economic data or other market drivers. The S&P ended up 0.1%, and consolidated above 4,500, having advanced close to 2% during the week. US investment grade credit spreads were little changed, and are close to the tightest levels for 2023, after the recent strong performance in risk sensitive assets. The US dollar was weak across the board and 10-year US treasuries were stable.
BNZ Markets Today
A risk-off vibe has been overhanging the market, with commodity currencies underperforming over the past 24 hours, albeit with no fresh damage done to the NZD and AUD overnight. US Treasury yields are lower, with the market supported by a series of weaker US economic indicators.
BNZ Markets Today
Following yesterday’s substantial decline, US Treasury yields have reversed course, seeing the 10-year rate up 11bps from the NZ close. This followed data showing slightly stronger than expected retail sales but much weaker PPI inflation. Higher rates haven’t got in the way of further upside in US equities, while currency movements have been mainly modest overnight and the NZD has consolidated over the 0.60 mark.
BNZ Markets Today
There were large moves across global markets as US CPI printed below consensus expectations. The data increased the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve hiking cycle is complete and the next move in the policy rate will be a cut in 2024. Equities made strong gains – the S&P is up 1.8% in early afternoon trade – while bond yields fell sharply and the US dollar lost ground.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest ahead of tonight’s key CPI release, with little net change in US equities and Treasury yields and modest changes in currencies. The AUD has outperformed, seeing NZD/AUD push lower as the NZD remains flat just under 0.59.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities extended higher on Friday with the S&P moving back above the 4,400 level. The index is more than 7% above the late October low point. Weaker than expected consumer sentiment and earlier comments by Fed chair Powell, that the central bank won’t hesitate to tighten policy further if needed to contain inflation, failed to undermine the positive risk sentiment. Treasuries and the US dollar were confined to narrow ranges. Oil prices gained 2% reducing the weekly fall to 4%.
BNZ Markets Today
Another day of light news sees further market consolidation. The NZD has outperformed, pushing up towards 0.5950 and it is higher on the crosses. The US 10-year rate has pushed higher after trading at a fresh six-week low yesterday afternoon.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow remains light with modest changes in pricing across equities, bonds and currencies, as the market shows signs of consolidation following last week’s significant moves.
The key market mover has been lower oil prices, with Brent crude down 2½% for the day after yesterday’s 4.2% drop, seeing it trade below USD80 per barrel for the first time since July. When prices were above USD90 the narrative was very tight market conditions, with record demand and tight supplies leading to projections of falling inventories. The focus at the moment is apparently weaker demand, led by China’s tepid economy, while Russian export shipments are running near a four-month high, according to Bloomberg tracking data.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equities are consolidating the large move from the previous week with the S&P up 0.2% in early afternoon trading amid a quiet economic calendar. The US Dollar has made broad-based gains while global bonds are lower in yield. In commodity markets, oil prices have fallen close to 3%, to the lowest level in more than 3 months, on concerns about global growth following weak Chinese trade data.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to what looks to be a quiet week ahead. Equity markets have consolidated while US Treasury yields has pushed higher after last week’s large fall. Currency movements have been modest, with the NZD and AUD slipping after last week’s strong gains.
BNZ Markets Today
US nonfarm payrolls undershot expectations contributing to a further rally across global bond markets. 10-year US treasury yields fell 9bps on Friday and closed at 4.57%, having fallen 30bps during the week. Risk sensitive assets performed well with the S&P up 1%, taking its weekly advance to almost 6%, which was the largest since June last year. Investors are increasingly confident that the tightening cycle by global central banks is complete. The US dollar lost ground aligned with the pullback in treasury yields and positive risk sentiment.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sensitive assets have traded strongly in the aftermath of the FOMC as investors gain confidence that the aggressive monetary tightening cycle is coming to an end. The S&P is up more than 1.5% and is on track for the largest one-day gain since May. Equity indices in Europe and Asia also posted strong gains. Longer dated treasury yields extended lower and the dollar index fell but recovered off the lows. The market now looks ahead to key US labour market data this evening.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a mostly uneventful end to the month, despite the heavy event calendar. The key market move has been a weaker JPY, even in the face of a further watering down of its yield curve control policy. There was a change in direction in US Treasuries and the USD after the US employment cost index came in slightly stronger than expected, although month-end flows could well have been a contributing factor. Broad-based USD strength sees a weaker NZD, with some support just over 0.58.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk appetite has begun the week on a positive note, with the market taking a sanguine view of developments in the Middle East. Equity markets are higher, oil prices are down 3% and the USD is broadly weaker. US Treasury yields have pushed higher, with nerves ahead of the Treasury’s refunding announcement and a Nikkei report that the BoJ will discuss a further tweak of its yield curve control policy.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equities ended the week on a soft note with geopolitical risks and an underwhelming corporate earnings season undermining market sentiment. The S&P closed 0.5% lower taking weekly losses to more than 2%. The market has now entered a ‘correction’ having declined more than 10% from the peak near 4600 in July. Oil and gold prices increased with gold trading above $2,000 an ounce for the first time since May. US treasuries gained with the front-end outperforming while the US dollar index ended little changed.
BNZ Markets Today
Investor risk sentiment remains fragile with global equities extending recent losses amid disappointing earnings from large US tech companies. The S&P is down more than 1%, falling further below the 4,200 level which formed the topside of the range through the first half of the year. Major equity benchmarks also declined in Europe and Asia. US treasury yields are lower, and the dollar index is little changed.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities traded lower with the S&P down close to 1.5% in afternoon trade as US treasury yields moved sharply higher. The move in treasuries contributed to a stronger US dollar. European stocks ended little changed while initial gains by Asian equities, after China announced new debt issuance and a higher budget deficit, faded. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was up more than 3% intraday before closing 1% higher.
BNZ Markets Today
The key market movement overnight has been broad USD strength, seemingly kicked off after some weak European PMI data, but it might also just be a case of an unwind of the previous day’s move. NZD/AUD has gone sub-0.92, ahead of key Australian CPI data today. The US 10-year rate has sustained the move lower seen in the previous session.
BNZ Markets Today
The bond market has been wild, with the US 10-year rate trading an 18bps range overnight on little news, consistent with a fickle market, with a sharp fall to 4.83% after piercing up through the 5% mark for the first time since 2007. The sharp drop in yield supported a turnaround in US equities and pushed the USD lower. The NZD traded at a fresh year-to-date low just over 0.58 before recovering up through 0.5850.
BNZ Markets Today
Against a backdrop of weaker risk appetite, commodity currencies have underperformed over the past 24 hours, with the NZD trading at a fresh low for the year before recovering. Trading has been whippy over the past hour or two in response to a speech by Fed Chair Powell, with a fickle market responding to both dovish and hawkish soundbites. The US 10-year rate traded at a fresh 16-year high of 4.99% but the USD has been broadly weaker overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
Global bonds markets remain under pressure with US treasuries making fresh multi-year highs ahead of a widely anticipated speech by Fed Chair Powell. The rise in yields contributed to a pullback in equities – the S&P was down 0.7% in early afternoon trade – and a higher US dollar. NZD/USD made fresh 2023 lows below 0.5860.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been plenty of news to digest. The NZD and AUD are at opposite ends of the leaderboard for the day after a weaker than expected NZ CPI print and more hawkish than expected RBA meeting minutes, seeing narrower NZ-Australia rate spreads and NZD/AUD down nearly a cent. Much stronger than expected US retail sales drove higher Treasury yields, but the blip up in the USD was short-lived, speaking to long USD positioning. There was also a flash crash in USD/JPY after a Bloomberg report on upcoming BoJ deliberations.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light to start the week but the market has adopted a “risk-on” tone, after heading into the weekend on a cautious note that had seen the VIX index close above 19 and sending our risk appetite index back below 50% at the end of last week.
BNZ Markets Today
Rising investor risk aversion impacted global markets into the end of last week amid concerns about an escalation in the conflict between Israel and Hamas and the potential for it to spread more widely. Global equities fell – the MSCI world index ended down nearly 1% - and flows into safe haven assets picked up. The VIX measure of S&P implied volatility gained the most since March, US treasury yields decreased and the US dollar index moved higher.
BNZ Markets Today
Focus was on the US CPI report overnight and a strong underbelly of inflation played to the higher for longer rates narrative, driving US rates and the USD much higher. The NZD and AUD performed poorly overnight, with the NZD languishing back down at 0.5930.
BNZ Markets Today
Global markets were generally subdued overnight with investors looking ahead to key US CPI data this evening and the release of the minutes from the September FOMC meeting where the US Federal Reserve held rates steady at a 22-year high of 5.5%.
BNZ Markets Today
The market is currently taking a sanguine view of the war underway between Israel and Hamas, with oil trading sideways, sustaining the near-4% gain yesterday, equities gaining ground and no evidence of a safe-haven bid in currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Conflict between Israel and Hamas that escalated over the weekend gripped the market’s attention as the new week kicked off. Weaker risk appetite initially enveloped markets, with asset prices initially moving in their typical direction after such a major geopolitical event – global equities weaker, oil prices higher, and bond markets receiving a safe-haven bid alongside the USD. But not all moves have been sustained, with the S&P500 now higher and the NZD surprisingly recovering up through 0.60.
BNZ Markets Today
US nonfarm payrolls easily beat expectations at the end of last week resulting in significant moves across asset markets. US bond yields surged to fresh cycle highs before retracing with similar price action in the US Dollar which rallied initially before losing traction. The S&P erased early losses and closed 1% higher. Oil prices were little changed but still made the largest weekly fall since March, amid concerns about weaker global demand and elevated interest rates. Rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East is likely to support oil prices as well as dampen investor risk sentiment.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities slipped in overnight trade though remained above the 3-month lows reached earlier in the week at the height of the bond market selloff. Oil prices extended lower having suffered the largest daily decline in a year the previous day. Brent crude fell to lows near US$84 per barrel, down 14% from the late September highs. Global bond yields are lower with more subdued market moves after the recent volatility and the US dollar is weaker.
BNZ Markets Today
US Treasury yields pulled back from 16-year highs reached in early European trade in a move supported by softer than expected US labour market data. The retracement provided some respite for investor risk sentiment which was under pressure from the relentless move higher in real yields in recent days. US equities recovered off the lows and the US Dollar weakened. Oil fell to the lowest level since early September with Brent crude prices close to US$10 below the recent $97.50 peak.
BNZ Markets Today
It’s a daily case of wash, rinse, repeat, with higher rates, steeper curves, a stronger USD and weaker equity markets, with a strong US JOLTS report adding to the damage.
BNZ Markets Today
The new month has begun with more of what we saw in September – higher and steeper yield curves with fresh highs in long-term rates being set, those higher rates negatively impacting the equity market and weaker risk appetite and economic resilience supporting the USD.
BNZ Markets Today
Global markets were generally subdued into month-end. Early gains in US equities faded with the S&P ending little changed on the day. The S&P fell more than 5% in September amid concerns about monetary policy remaining at restrictive levels for a longer period. Global bond yields fell on Friday, aided by signs of easing inflation in the Eurozone and the US, but ended the month with large losses.
BNZ Markets Today
Another day, another bond market sell-off with fresh highs in global rates, although the net change in the US 10-year rate has been small, after some reversal. Higher risk appetite sees a recovery in US equities and a broadly weaker USD. The AUD has been the top performer, while the NZD has recovered to 0.5960.
BNZ Markets Today
It’s a case of more of the same overnight, with weaker equity markets in the face of fresh cycle highs for bond yields with steeper curves, higher oil prices and a stronger USD.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment is weaker in overnight trading, with a higher VIX and US equities down over 1%. The US 10-year Treasury continues to trade near its highest level since 2007. The USD is broadly stronger, although with only small moves, leaving NZD near 0.5950.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light but that hasn’t stopped a further sell-off of global bond markets, with the US 10-year Treasury trading at a fresh 16-year high and Germany’s 10-year rate at a 12-year high. The DXY USD index rose to a fresh high for the year. The NZD has been surprisingly resilient, holding steady around 0.5960, amidst further pessimism around China, seeing NZD/AUD push higher.
BNZ Markets Today
US Treasuries ended the week with a relief rally, the 10-year rate closing Friday down 6bps after trading at its highest level since 2007. The S&P500 fell for a fourth consecutive day. Currency moves were modest, with a weak yen after the BoJ maintained a dovish stance. The NZD saw a modest gain on Friday night, closing the week at 0.5960, to be the best of the majors for the week, up 1%.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets have been jittery following the Fed’s hawkish-hold yesterday, while in a close call the BoE opted to leave rates unchanged, for the first time in nearly two years. Steeper yield curves have been the order of the day, with long-dated global rates trading at fresh multi-year or multi-decade highs across many countries. Equity investors are showing some nerves, with notable falls across Europe and the US. After hitting a fresh six-month high, the USD DXY index is now flat for the day. After briefly going sub-0.59, the NZD has consolidated in familiar territory back over 0.59.
BNZ Markets Today
In a hawkish hold, the US Federal Reserve left the target range for the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as was widely anticipated and signalled rates are likely to stay higher for longer. The committee said it remained ‘highly attentive to inflation risks’, noting that economic activity had been expanding at a ‘solid pace’. The Fed maintained a tightening bias and repeated language saying officials will ‘determine the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate.’
BNZ Markets Today
Ahead of a busy week, market movements have been modest. The USD is slightly weaker, with a small fall overall, and the NZD has consolidated just over 0.59. US Treasury yields are well contained with a flattening bias and US equities show a small lift.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities fell on Friday led by technology stocks following indications of weak demand from Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s top chipmaker. The Nasdaq fell 1.6% while the S&P pulled back 1.2% to end little changed over the week. The beginning of a strike among US autoworkers also dampened investor sentiment. Global bond yields increased, and the US Dollar made marginal gains. Brent crude remained near recent highs at US$94.30 per barrel having increased a further 4% last week.
BNZ Markets Today
A dovish hike by the ECB pushed down European rates and drove the EUR down to a six-month low, dragging down GBP in its wake. Commodity currencies have held their ground against a generally well-supported USD, the NZD remaining in a tight range just over 0.59. Oil prices are up to a fresh high and, alongside some resilient US economic data, have imparted some modest upside to US Treasury yields.
BNZ Markets Today
The widely anticipated US CPI report for August printed higher than expected but the response across financial markets was largely subdued. US equities were little changed while the lasting impact on currency and bond markets was limited.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been well-contained as the market awaits tonight’s key US CPI report. US Treasuries have traded a very tight range with little movement and the S&P500 shows a modest loss for the day. Of note, oil prices have risen to a fresh 10-month high, lending support to CAD. The USD is slightly stronger and the NZD has consolidated around 0.59. There was little market reaction to the government’s pre-election opening of the books, with the deterioration in the fiscal accounts well telegraphed in advance.
BNZ Markets Today
Ahead of a busy week, the USD weakened, about time following eight consecutive weekly increases in the DXY index. A stronger yuan, given the heavy hand of the PBoC and some supportive credit data, has spilled over into a stronger NZD, AUD, with the stronger yen also playing a role. US Treasuries show small net movements and a slightly steeper curve while equity markets are on a stronger footing.
BNZ Markets Today
In the absence of major economic releases, global markets were generally subdued into the weekly close. The S&P closed marginally higher while Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained 0.2% boosted by energy stocks as oil prices continued to appreciate. US treasury yields moved higher supporting the US Dollar which rose for the eighth straight week, its longest run since 2005. The strong US Dollar continues to attract the attention policy makers in Japan and China.
BNZ Markets Today
Global rates are lower, with a downward surprise to US initial jobless claims proving to be only a short-term interruption to the move. Despite a fresh low for the yuan, the NZD and AUD have managed to hold their ground against the USD, unlike EUR and GBP which have fallen to fresh three-month lows.
BNZ Markets Today
The ISM US services sector survey was stronger than expected which underpinned expectations the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. Treasury yields increased supporting the US Dollar while equities retreated with the S&P falling 0.8%. Euro Stoxx ended the day 0.7% lower marking its sixth successive day of declines and is testing the base of the trading range near 4200.
BNZ Markets Today
The USD found support after China’s Caixin services PMI fell yesterday, with the NZD, AUD and JPY all weakening to fresh lows for the year. Oil prices are up to a fresh high for the year, not helping the bond market, with US Treasury yields up 8-9bps across the curve.
BNZ Markets Today
With the US on holiday, there has been little news and little price action in markets at the beginning of the week. S&P futures are currently down less than 0.1% and Treasury futures point to some small upside pressure on yields, with the implied 10-year rate up about 2bps. The net change in the Euro Stoxx 600 index was close to zero and European 10-year rates are up in the order of 3bps for the likes of the UK and Germany.
BNZ Markets Today
The US labour market report provided further evidence the economy is on track for a ‘soft landing’ with solid monthly payrolls growth in conjunction with an increased supply of workers as the participation rate picks up. After an initial period of volatility, US treasury yields moved higher lending support to the US Dollar. The S&P closed up 0.2% as earlier gains faded but still ended the week 2.5% higher.
BNZ Markets Today
In-line core inflation in the Euro area and US PCE deflator data confirming the current disinflationary pulse have helped support global bonds markets. Declines in European yields have led the way, and this sees EUR and GBP underperform. The NZD has been range-trading, with no spillover from a stronger yuan after further support measures to revive China’s property market. Equity markets show modest movements.