Markets Today

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global equity markets were mixed into the end of last week. Major European indices were marginally lower, closing at the weakest level in two weeks and the Hang Seng dropped 1.6%, extending the correction after the sharp move higher over the past month. The S&P gained 0.7% after data showed US inflation expectations had receded. Trading volumes were below average ahead of the US public holiday. Tech stocks led the rally and the Nasdaq closed at a fresh record high. Treasuries were little changed, while the US dollar was weaker.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Much stronger than expected US PMI data drove US rates and the USD higher and US equities lower overnight. This saw the NZD lose earlier gains, and it trades back just under 0.61. The spillover from Wednesday’s hawkish RBNZ policy update continued, with domestic rates higher, led by the short-end, NZD/AUD rising to a fresh five-week high, and NZD/JPY up to a 17-year high.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global equity markets are modestly lower as investors look ahead to Nvidia’s quarterly earnings that are published after the US close. The size and volatility of Nvidia makes it an important bellwether for the broader market. The FTSE100 fell 0.5%, its largest drop in more than a month, after stronger than expected inflation data reduced the prospect for rate cuts from the Bank of England (BOE). Global bond yields are higher, and the US dollar was marginally stronger against the majority of G10 currencies.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

More hawkish commentary from Fed speakers hasn’t perturbed the rates market, with US Treasury yields down slightly on the day. US equities are flat and currency movements have been small, with the NZD trading just below the 0.61 mark. Domestic focus will be on the RBNZ’s MPS this afternoon, with expectations of little change in tone from previous messages.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been a quiet start to the week for most markets, with US Treasury yields up slightly, US equities up modestly and modest currency movements. After last week’s outperformance, the NZD is trading softer, just above 0.61 after a brief dip below the figure overnight.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global equity markets were little changed into the end of last week in the absence of fresh market catalysts or first-tier economic data. The exception was Chinese stocks which continued to push higher, despite mixed activity data, with investors focused on new measures from policy makers aimed at stabilising the housing market and boosting consumer sentiment. The Hang Seng was close to 1% higher on Friday taking its weekly advance to nearly 4% and is easily the best performing major market in May.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The key market move overnight has been a retracement of US Treasuries, with yields steadily higher, reversing the fall seen following the US CPI release the previous night. This hasn’t perturbed equity markets, with the Dow Jones index breaking 40,000 for the first time, but the rates-sensitive JPY is the weakest major overnight and NZD/JPY reached 95. The NZD is flat around 0.6120.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global asset markets made strong gains following the widely anticipated US CPI data, which along with softer than expected retail sales, contributed to markets bringing forward expectations of when the Federal Reserve will begin its easing cycle. The S&P rallied close to 1% which took the index to a fresh all-time high above 5300 and European stocks also closed at record levels. US treasury yields moved sharply lower, and the US dollar was significantly weaker.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of tonight’s key US CPI release. There was some sticker shocker from a higher PPI print overnight, but on further reflection the data were mixed, and the spike in the USD and rates was very short-lived. US equities are up modestly, US Treasury yields are down slightly, and the USD is broadly weaker, seeing the NZD push up to 0.6040.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been a typically quiet start to the week with little newsflow to drive markets. Global equity markets are flat, US Treasury yields are down slightly, and currency movements have been modest. The NZD is flat, consolidating just over the 0.60 mark.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Weaker than expected US consumer confidence data and higher treasury yields, following a rise in inflation expectations, contributed to the S&P retracing from earlier gains to close modestly higher on Friday. Across the Atlantic, UK and European stocks closed at record levels, with the former helped by stronger than expected GDP data. The Hang Seng – which is the best performing global index in May - rallied 1.5% following reports of a tax waiver plan for China domiciled investors that access Hong Kong shares via Stock Connect.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global markets were generally confined to narrow ranges in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. After four days of consecutive gains, the S&P was little changed in early afternoon trade. Equities in Europe remained well supported with key indices extending recent gains to fresh record highs. The FTSE was up 0.5% matching the gains for the region wide Stoxx 600. Global bond yields are modestly higher while the US dollar index was little changed.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Against a backdrop of little fresh news, US Treasury yields continue to edge lower, with the 10-year rate down to a four-week low. The USD is stronger, although movements have been small to modest across the board and the NZD is close to 0.60.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been a quiet start to the week in what will likely be a quiet week overall, with a very light economic and event calendar. With UK and Japan holidays, trading conditions are lighter than normal. Global rates are slightly lower, with the US 10-year rate consolidating just below 4.5%. The NZD has spent most of the day consolidating just over 0.60, while the yen is weaker after last week’s strong recovery.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global equity markets made solid gains on Friday. Weaker than expected US labour market data in conjunction with a soft services ISM pointed towards moderating economic activity, and rekindled hopes for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. The S&P gained 1.2%, the largest advance in more than two months. US treasury yields declined sharply after the data but rebounded off the lows while the US dollar was weaker against G10 currencies.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets have settled after the flurry following the Fed’s policy update yesterday and the moves have been in a similar direction, with US Treasury yields falling further and the USD weaker. JPY has outperformed, after another bout of official intervention shook out some more speculative positions. The NZD has pushed up through 0.5960.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The Fed’s policy update didn’t offer any surprises and there was little initial market reaction, but US rates and the USD fell during Chair Powell’s press conference, where the clear message was one of an easing bias, with a rate hike “unlikely”. As we go to print, US Treasuries are down around 10bps on the day and the NZD is trading at its highs, up towards 0.5940.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Investor risk sentiment was undermined into April month end by US economic data that revealed persistent wage pressures and a sharp fall in consumer confidence. The S&P fell close to 1% and looks set for its weakest monthly performance since September.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Risk appetite is slightly higher at the start of the new week. The key market movement has been yen volatility, with signs of official intervention after the currency cratered in early Asia trading. USD/JPY has traded within a 3.5% range and has settled around 156. The USD is broadly weaker, and the NZD has pushed up towards the 0.60 mark. Global rates are modestly lower.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global asset markets advanced into the end of last week. The S&P gained more than 1%, underpinned by strength in technology companies, following upbeat earnings reports from Alphabet and Microsoft. Equities were also supported by personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data which revealed strong consumption and inflation, which was in line with expectations, and not as high as some investors had feared after the Q1 data released the previous day.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The US GDP report released overnight could be described as anti-Goldilocks, with both weaker growth and higher inflation than expected. The rates market was more focused on the latter than the former, seeing a further paring of US rate cut expectations, sending yields higher. A stronger USD reaction wasn’t sustained and the NZD is little changed at 0.5945 from where we left it ahead of the ANZAC day holiday. The yen continues to underperform, raising the spectre of official intervention. A better strategy would be for the BoJ to convey a more hawkish tone at today’s policy update.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Investor risk appetite has continued to recover underpinning global equities. The S&P gained more than 1% as the market looks ahead to corporate results from large technology companies. The FTSE 100 traded to a new all-time high before retracing amid a broad-based rally across European stocks. US treasury yields fell following weaker than expected preliminary PMIs for April, which contrasted with evidence of a recovery in Europe, and contributed to a weaker US dollar.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There has been little newsflow to kick-start the week but risk appetite is higher as Middle East tensions settle. US equities rebounded after a weak run, the UK FTSE100 closed at a fresh closing high and commodity currencies have outperformed. The NZD has consolidated above the 0.59 mark and is flat to higher on the key major cross rates. There have only been small changes in US Treasury yields.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global equity markets traded lower on Friday, but pared the worst of the losses that came amid a sharp rise in investor risk aversion following news that Israel had launched retaliatory strikes against Iran. Risk sentiment recovered after Iran’s state media played down the damage from the attacks raising hopes that the hostilities wouldn’t escalate into a broader conflict. US treasuries ended little changed, reversing an earlier fall in yields, while the US dollar was stable. Brent crude ended the week at US$87.30, having jumped as high as US$90.75, earlier in the session.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Newsflow has remained light, generating modest movements in asset prices. US equities are down modestly while US Treasury yields have pushed higher, with a stronger Philly Fed survey and hawkish Fed-speak not helping. The USD is broadly stronger, reversing the previously day’s loss, with the NZD nudging down to 0.59.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There is a modest risk-off tone in the air, with US equities weaker, US Treasury yields lower, credit spreads wider and oil prices weaker. Currency movements haven’t been affected by the risk-off move, with the USD broadly weaker overnight. The NZD and AUD have been the best performers over the past 24 hours, with higher rates post the NZ CPI supporting a move for the NZD above 0.59, which has been sustained overnight.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global bond market remained under pressure. US treasuries yields made fresh highs for the year which constrained equity market performance. The S&P was marginally lower in early afternoon trade, with limited rebound from recent weakness, despite trading at one-month lows. The VIX gauge of US stock market volatility remained elevated reflecting the uncertain geopolitical backdrop. In currency markets, the US dollar was confined to a choppy range. Asian currencies were in focus after the PBOC set a weaker daily reference rate for the yuan and the yen was volatile amid intervention concerns.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets continue to trade with a cautious tone, with Israel vowing to retaliate against Iran’s weekend attack. US equities are down close to 1% and oil prices are barely lower, with Brent crude about USD90. US Treasury yields rose to fresh 2024 highs, with much stronger than expected US retail sales being a factor. The USD has been well supported, with the yen, NZD and AUD notable underperformers, weakening to fresh lows.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Risk aversion gripped global assets markets into the end of last week amid rising geopolitical tensions. There were growing concerns that Iran could launch a retaliatory attack on Israel following the air strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria. Over the weekend, Iran’s military seized an Israeli-linked container ship, and launched drones and missiles towards Israel, in a significant escalation of hostilities. These developments will weigh on investor rise appetite as Israel calibrates a response.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets have settled after the shock from the hot CPI print the previous night, helped in part by a more benign PPI print. US Treasury yields show only small movements, with a modestly steeper curve led by a retracement in the 2-year rate. The 10-year Treasury found support with yields just under 4.6% overnight. US equities have bounced back. The ECB’s in-line policy update had little impact on the market, while the NZD and AUD have outperformed with the NZD close to 0.60.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Stronger than expected US CPI data, contributed to a reassessment about how soon the US Federal Reserve might cut rates, and prompted large moves across global asset markets. US treasury yields surged higher contributing to broad based gains in the US dollar. The higher rates backdrop undermined equites. The S&P fell more than 1% to retest the lows near 5140 from last week.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been another uneventful day in financial markets, with the key move being a steady fall in US Treasury yields after the recent lift to 2024 highs, ahead of tonight’s key US CPI report. US equities are down modestly. Currency moves have been small in net terms although the NZD and AUD remain on the positive side of the ledger as global commodity prices continue to push higher.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Market movements have been well contained to kick off the week without any key catalysts to perturb pricing. There was a total eclipse of the sun in the US and a total eclipse of the year-to-date highs for US rates overnight, before they settled back down, seeing the 10-year Treasury yield little changed from the NZ close. US equities are slightly higher and the USD is slightly weaker. The NZD and AUD have outperformed a touch, supported by higher commodity prices.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

US equities advanced following labour market data which pointed towards a resilient economy and intensified the debate about when the Federal Reserve might begin to ease monetary policy. The S&P gained more than 1%, rebounding from the weak previous session, which saw the index fall more than 2% from intra-day highs and the VIX spike to the highest level this year.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Risk appetite is higher ahead of the key US employment report tonight. Equity markets are stronger, with the S&P500 up 0.7% and Treasury yields show little net movement. The USD is broadly weaker, with the NZD and AUD outperforming against a backdrop of rising commodity prices. The NZD is trading at 0.6045, with NZD/AUD falling to a 9-month low around 0.9130.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

After a soggy start to the second quarter, global equities have stabilised. The S&P is up 0.3%, rebounding from earlier losses, after treasury yields retraced following data that pointed to a slowdown in the US services sector. In currency markets, the US dollar fell sharply. Gold prices extended to fresh record highs, above US$2290 per troy ounce, having gained more than 15% since mid-February.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Global rates are higher, with the US 10-year Treasury yield reaching a fresh high for the year of 4.40%, not helped by oil prices rising to fresh year-to-date highs. Equity investors are showing further signs of fatigue, with the S&P500 close to 1%. Currency moves have been modest but, despite weaker risk appetite, the USD is broadly weaker and the NZD is up slightly overnight to 0.5965.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Stronger than expected US ISM manufacturing data contributed to sharply higher treasury yields, which supported the dollar, and saw US equities start the new quarter on a soft note. The S&P was down 0.4% in early afternoon trade. Gold prices retreated from record highs near US$2265 per ounce. China equities made strong gains with the CSI 300 Index up more than 1.5%, supported by a rebound in manufacturing activity. The manufacturing PMI rose to the highest level in a year raising hopes the economic recovery gained traction in March.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global equity markets are generally higher, in the absence of economic data or fresh catalysts, with investors looking ahead to a speech by influential Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. The S&P is marginally higher in early afternoon trade with earlier gains having faded. Equity indices in Hong Kong and mainland China fell, and have now erased gains for March, as optimism around the policy-driven rally fades. US treasuries moved lower in yield while yen volatility was the focus in currency markets.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Market price action has been limited by a lack of newsflow. Currency movements has been remarkably well contained, with the NZD steady just over the 0.60 mark. Global equity markets show small gains while global rates also show only small movements.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been a typically quiet start to the week without any catalysts to drive markets. Global equity markets show only small changes, global rates have pushed higher, and currency movements have been modest. The NZD has spent the day hovering around 0.60, some support gleaned from the PBoC supporting the yuan after its surprising neglect on Friday.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global equity markets were mixed with the S&P ending little changed on the day but 2.3% higher over the course of last week, which was the largest advance in 3 months. In the absence of first tier economic data, US treasuries yields declined, and the US dollar advanced. The Chinese yuan reached the lowest level against the US dollar in 4 months weighing on Australasian currencies.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Last night a surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank got the market’s attention but spillover to the key markets has been limited. European yields have pushed lower against little change in US Treasury yields. USD weakness after the Fed’s policy update yesterday has completely reversed. After a brief look above 0.61, the NZD is trading down to 0.6045. NZD/AUD has fallen below 0.92.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Market reaction to the Fed’s latest policy update has been well contained so far, with some relief that the Fed still projects three rate cuts this year, albeit sees less scope for lower rates further out. The US Treasuries curve is steeper on the day, driven by lower rates at the short end. The NZD hit a fresh low for the year of 0.6025 last night but is closer to 0.6070 as we go to print.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global asset markets were generally subdued as investors looked ahead to the US Federal Reserve rate decision which will help frame the outlook for policy easing this year. The S&P recovered from an earlier dip to be marginally higher in afternoon trade with similar small moves across other major global indices. The Nikkei registered a 0.7% gain after yesterday's widely anticipated Bank of Japan meeting. Treasury yields drifted lower and the US dollar advanced.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been a typically quiet start to the week, with investors keeping their powder dry ahead of a busy week. Currency markets barely have a pulse, with tiny net movements, while US rates have pushed up to flirt with fresh highs for the year. US equities are up 0.8%.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global equity markets struggled to gain traction as investors look ahead to key central bank meetings this week. The S&P fell 0.7% while major European indices were little changed. In Asia, the Hang Seng fell nearly 1.5% following weak house price data from China and the PBOC’s decision to leave rates on hold and withdraw liquidity. US treasuries ended modestly higher in yield and the US dollar was stable.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It hasn’t been a very good day for asset markets, with US data showing a stagflationary bias – higher inflation and weaker consumer spending – driving a sell-off of US Treasuries and equities. The 10-year rate is up 10bps on the day after PPI inflation came in strong, while the S&P500 is down 0.5%. Higher US rates have driven broad gains in the USD. Unusually, the yen has been least affected as speculation of a rate hike by the BoJ next week increases. The NZD has fallen to 0.6130 and oil prices are higher on a change in outlook from the International Energy Agency.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global asset markets were confined to narrow ranges in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. The S&P was little changed in early afternoon trade and is consolidating near record highs. European stocks edged higher to a new all-time peak while the Hang Seng managed to build upon the 3% rally from the previous session, indicating an improved sentiment towards Chinese equities. US treasury yields moved higher ahead of 30-year supply while currency markets were broadly subdued. Oil prices rose after Ukraine carried out drone strikes on refineries in Russia.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US rates and the USD are modestly higher after the US CPI report was a touch stronger than consensus, providing no fuel for those looking for an imminent Fed rate cut. Treasury rates are up 5-6bps across the curve. The NZD has slightly underperformed, falling to 0.6150 and down modestly on most crosses.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been a typically quiet start to the trading week, more so with focus on the US CPI report due tonight. Heavy supply is weighing on US Treasuries, seeing yields modestly higher, US equities are down slightly, and currency movements are well contained. The NZD is down slightly to 0.6165.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global equities retreated into the end of last week. The S&P briefly spiked to a fresh all-time high, just below 5,200 after the US labour market data was released, but subsequently faded to close 0.7% lower. US treasuries settled marginally lower in yield following a volatile period around the data while the US dollar index ended little changed. Bitcoin briefly passed $70,000, to set a new peak, before rapidly retracing. Gold extended its rally and reached a fresh all-time high of $2,195 per ounce.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US and European equities rose to fresh record highs, with the prospect of rate cuts supporting investor confidence in the market, although global rates only show small movements. The ECB left rates on hold and President Lagarde hinted at a June rate cut. The USD is broadly weaker again, with the NZD lifting to 0.6170, although JPY has outperformed as the BoJ edges closer to a rate hike.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US Treasury yields are lower, the USD is weaker and US equities have recovered some of yesterday's losses. Chair Powell reiterated the Fed’s view of easier policy later this year in front of lawmakers, while US labour market data were line. The NZD has recovered to 0.6135 and, alongside the AUD has slightly outperformed, seeing most crosses modestly higher.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

A risk-off vibe overhangs the market, with weaker IT stocks a drag on US equity market performance. That has helped support the bond market, with a weaker US ISM services report chiming in, seeing US Treasury yields down 4-6bps for the day. Currency moves have been modest. China’s optimistic 5% growth target did nothing to support commodity currencies, and the NZD is languishing just under the 0.61 mark.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

US equity indices are little changed with investors looking ahead to key economic indicators and comments from Fed officials, including Chair Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, later in the week. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 increased 0.5% and traded above the psychological 40,000 level for the first time. The Nikkei is the best performing major stock index in 2024, having gained 20% in local currency terms, and 13% in US dollar terms. This compares with an 8% rise in the S&P.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Positive risk sentiment propelled global equity indices to fresh record closes at the end of last week. The S&P traded above 5,100 and the Eurostoxx 50, looked past stronger than expected inflation data, to eke out a new all-time high. Treasury yields and the US dollar fell following weak manufacturing data and WTI crude prices rose above US$80 per barrel.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

There has been plenty of news to digest over the past 24 hours. In-line US PCE deflator data came as a relief and triggered a rally in the bond market, seeing US Treasury yields lower across the curve. US equities are flat. The NZD is little changed from this time yesterday, at 0.6080, while a hawkish speech by a BoJ board member has seen a sustained lift in the yen.

BNZ Markets Today

Stuart Ritson -

Global assets markets are little changed overnight in the absence of first tier economic data. Investors are looking ahead to key inflation data in the US and big European economies which could influence the expected path for interest rates. The S&P is marginally lower in early afternoon trade continuing the sideways price action from recent sessions. Global bond markets are stable while the US dollar advanced. Bitcoin surged above $60,000 for the first time since November 2021 extending gains to over 40% in 2024.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been another uneventful trading session, with flat US equities, small changes in US Treasury yields and currency markets well contained. Focus today will be on the RBNZ’s MPS where there is strong consensus for no change in rates, but nervousness that impatience by the MPC could trigger another rate hike.