Markets Today

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Events Round-Up
AU: Home loans (m/m%), Nov: -0.9 vs. -1.5 exp.
EC: Core CPI (y/y%), Dec: 1 vs. 1 exp.
US: Philadelphia Fed business opinion, Jan: 17 vs. 9.5 exp
US: Initial jobless claims (k), Jan: 213 vs. 220 exp.

Good Morning
US equities have managed to inch a little higher overnight, despite the continued US government shutdown, disappointing earnings from Morgan Stanley and speculation that Trump might impose tariffs on auto imports. The NZD has underperformed again, as the market awaits CPI data next week.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Risk sentiment continues to gradually improve, with better than expected earnings from US banks helping to support equity markets. Theresa May’s deal was voted down by a record margin, but the market sees a shift towards a softer Brexit and away from a no-deal scenario; GBP has bounced strongly from yesterday morning’s lows. The NZD has underperformed overnight and the NZ 2 year swap rate made a fresh low yesterday.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Risk sentiment has improved overnight on news of tax cuts in China, with global equity markets higher and US bond yields inching up. But the main event is the UK parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal at 8am NZT, which will set the tone for risk assets and currencies in the day ahead. The GBP has weakened, and the USD strengthened, ahead of the vote. The NZD has moved lower despite an improvement in NZ business confidence and increase in dairy prices.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Weak Chinese trade data released yesterday generated renewed concerns about global growth, pushing equity markets lower. Global rates are little changed however and currency movements have generally been contained. The GBP remains volatile ahead of the parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s deal tomorrow (UK time).

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equity markets were unchanged on Friday, as risk sentiment continued to recover in the New Year. Global rates moved lower amid more dovish comments from Fed officials. Meanwhile, the NZD rose strongly on growing hopes of a US-China trade deal.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Market movements have been modest in the current session, with not a great deal to trade on. Commodity currencies are little changed overnight against a backdrop of a small bid returning to the USD against the other majors. US rates and equities are little changed.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Risk appetite continues to recover, with increased optimism that the US-China trade war will be resolved and some dovish Fed speakers adding to the case for a Fed pause in the tightening cycle. The USD is weaker across the board, while the NZD has been the best performer of the majors.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Happy New Year. In this first Markets Today for the year we begin with an overview of key events and market movements since Christmas. In illiquid market conditions we’ve seen some heightened volatility in equity and bond markets, while currency markets have been well-behaved apart from a “flash crash” a week ago.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Global equity markets are sinking deeper into the red, the US yield curve flattens further and the USD has weakened overnight, reversing some of its post-Fed gains yesterday. This leaves the NZD higher in overnight trading but still 1% down since this time yesterday.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets are quiet ahead of the FOMC announcement at 8am NZ time. The USD has drifted a little lower ahead of the announcement as has the US 10-year rate. The NZD is little changed.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

After a couple of big daily falls US equities are up 0.8-1.2% but, as we’ve seen, anything can happen in the last few hours of the trading session. US bonds have rallied a little ahead of the US FOMC announcement tomorrow. Most currencies are little changed overnight. CAD is softer as oil prices continue to fall, while the NZD has sustained the gains it saw in local trading yesterday.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equity markets have weakened again overnight amid a broader risk-off tone to markets. The NZD is little changed ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting and NZ GDP on Thursday morning.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Global equity markets got hammered again on Friday amid growing concerns about the global growth outlook. Both Chinese activity data and the European PMIs were much weaker than expected. The USD briefly made a fresh 18-month high, with strong US retail sales release adding weight to the narrative that the US economy is outperforming the rest of the world. The NZD was hit by the weaker Chinese data and the RBNZ’s announcement that it was proposing to significantly increase the amount of capital NZ banks need to hold.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick SMyth -

It has been a relatively quiet night in markets overnight, with no fresh developments on the US-China trade front and no major economic data released. The ECB said it would end its QE programme, as planned, at the end of this month, although Draghi alluded to growing downside risks to growth; the EUR is slightly lower as a result. The NZD has been relatively stable.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equities have risen strongly overnight on a series of positive reports on US-China trade talks, including reports that China might revamp its Made in China 2025 industrial policy. The GBP has also recovered sharply, as the market anticipates that Theresa May will win a leadership challenge in a few hours’ time. The NZD has fallen, despite a broadly weaker USD.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Events Round-Up
NZ: ANZ Truckometer - heavy (m/m%), Nov: -1.9 vs. 4.6 prev.
NZ: Retail card spending (m/m%), Nov: -0.4 vs. 0.3 prev.
AU: NAB business conditions, Nov: 11 vs. 12 prev.
AU: House price index (q/q%), Q3: -1.5 vs. -1.6 exp.
UK: Unemployment rate, Oct: 4.1 vs. 4.1 exp.
UK: Employment change (k), Oct: 79k vs. 25 exp.
UK: Average weekly earnings ex-bonus (y/y%), Oct: 3.3 vs. 3.2 exp.
GE: ZEW survey expectations, Dec: -17.5 vs. -25 exp.
US: NFIB small business optimism, Nov:104.8 vs. 107 exp.
US: PPI ex food and energy (y/y%), Nov: 2.7 vs. 2.5 exp.

Good Morning
Market sentiment has improved somewhat over the past 24 hours following news that the US and China have had high-level dialogue on trade and reports that China would cut tariffs on imported US cars. Confidence remains fragile however and US equities have already pared most of their earlier gains. The GBP remains weak amidst speculation of a leadership challenge to PM May. The NZD is unchanged from this time yesterday, but higher on most of the crosses.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

The British pound was hammered overnight after Theresa May unexpectedly postponed the parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal. With the clock ticking to the March 29th exit date, the market is concerned about the growing risk that the UK could slide into a no-deal Brexit. The news exacerbated already fragile risk sentiment, with US equities falling again, although they have recovered somewhat over the past hour or so. The NZD has outperformed amidst the risk-off backdrop, and the NZD/AUD has made a fresh 18-month high.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

The British pound was hammered overnight after Theresa May unexpectedly postponed the parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal. With the clock ticking to the March 29th exit date, the market is concerned about the growing risk that the UK could slide into a no-deal Brexit. The news exacerbated already fragile risk sentiment, with US equities falling again, although they have recovered somewhat over the past hour or so. The NZD has outperformed amidst the risk-off backdrop, and the NZD/AUD has made a fresh 18-month high.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equities fell sharply again on Friday amid a renewed bout of risk aversion. The risk-off backdrop pushed US bond yields lower, with a weaker-than-expected payrolls report and dovish comments from Fed Governor Brainard adding to the downward pressure. Currencies saw relatively little movement, although the NZD drifted lower on the day. Finally, OPEC announced a larger than expected 1.2m barrels per day supply cut, which boosted oil prices.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Events Round-Up
AU: Trade balance ($m), Oct: 2316 vs. 3000 exp.
AU: Retail sales (m/m%), Oct: 0.3 vs. 0.3 exp.
GE: Factory orders (m/m%), Oct: 0.3 vs. -0.4 exp.
US: ADP employment chg (k), Nov: 179 vs. 195 exp.
US: Trade balance ($b), Oct: -55.5 vs. -55.0 exp.
US: ISM non-manufacturing index, Nov: 60.7 vs. 59.0 exp.

Good Morning
Risk appetite has taken another hit which sees safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF outperform, while commodity currencies have underperformed. Global equity markets are a lot lower, while US 10 year rates are down to a fresh 3-month low.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Events Round-Up
NZ: Volume of building work (q/q%), Q3: 0.7 vs. 2.3 exp.
AU: GDP (q/q%), Q3: 0.3 vs. 0.6 exp.
AU: GDP (y/y%), Q3: 2.8 vs. 3.3 exp.
CH: Caixin PMI services, Nov: 53.8 vs. 50.7 exp.
UK: Services PMI, Nov: 50.4 vs. 52.5 exp.
CA: Bank of Canada O/N rate (%): Dec: 1.75 vs. 1.75 exp.

Good Morning
Trading conditions are quiet with the US on holiday to mark the death of President George HW Bush. The AUD and CAD are the weakest performers after weak data and a dovish monetary policy statement respectively, while GBP is better bid after a poor run recently.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The risk-on rally post the Xi-Trump meeting hasn’t lasted long, with risk assets reversing course. Equities and bond yields are lower and, overnight, commodity currencies have drifted lower, while JPY is the best performing major currency. Brexit woes continue to impair GBP.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The “highly successful” Xi-Trump meeting at the weekend triggered an improvement in risk sentiment to begin the new week, seeing equity markets rise and commodity currencies outperform. US 10 year rates opened higher, but have fallen away to be little changed just under 3%.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Trading on Friday was fairly subdued as markets awaited the highly anticipated Xi-Trump meeting held at the weekend. US equities were stronger, US rates were lower, while the NZD closed near its recent highs.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Currency markets are treading water ahead of the important Xi-Trump meeting this weekend. US equities are modestly lower through the morning session, while the US 10-year rate is back near the NZ close of 3.03% after earlier breaking below 3%.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equities have surged higher and the USD has weakened after Fed Chair Powell said interest rates were “just below” neutral, a marked change from his assessment last month. Short-end Treasury yields have fallen and the curve steepened.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Market movements have been reasonably modest overnight as we await Fed Chair Powell’s speech tomorrow and the Trump-Xi meeting on the weekend. There was little reaction to a speech from Fed vice Chair Clarida overnight. The USD is broadly higher once again, although the NZD has bucked the trend and is up slightly on the day.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Risk appetite has improved overnight, with equities and US bond yields rising, and crude oil recovering some of its large falls on Friday. Signs of compromise from the Italian government over its budget plans helped boost sentiment, and led to a sharp drop in Italian yields. Currency moves have been modest as we await a barrage of Fed-speak over the remainder of the week and the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 on the weekend.

BNZ Markets Outlook

Nick Smyth -

US equities ended the week on a soft note and US Treasury yields declined slightly, although volumes were light on a shortened trading day in the US. The EUR weakened, and the USD strengthened, after another batch of weaker than expected Eurozone PMI surveys. Meanwhile, oil prices remained in free-fall due to concerns about oversupply in the market.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Markets are quiet with the US on holiday. The only notable movement has been strength in GBP after a draft UK and EU political declaration was published. The NZD was modestly weaker in local trading yesterday and has sustained that move overnight.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Market sentiment has perked up leading into the US Thanksgiving holiday tonight, seeing global equities higher, a modest rise in global rates and supporting commodity currencies.

BNZ Markets Today

Doug Steel -

Equities lurch lower again, denting risk appetite. The US dollar has pushed higher across the board, arresting its slide over the past week. Meanwhile, the plunge in oil prices continues. Little change in yields.

BNZ Markets Today

Brendan Marsh -

The week ahead holds little in store in terms of key data releases or central bank meetings and includes the US out later in the week for Thanksgiving, however, there’s still been a couple of pressure points albeit from familiar sources for markets to respond to at the start of an abbreviated week.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The USD and US Treasury yields fell after comments from Fed Chair Clarida were interpreted as dovish. That helped the NZD to continue to power on up, and supported at the end of the week by further optimism on US-China trade talks after some positive comments by President Trump.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Brexit has been the key focus for the market and it’s not looking good for the UK, with GBP trashed again and UK gilt yields plunging, dragging down US Treasury yields. After a bad start, US equities are now back to square. The NZD continues to perform well, making further gains overnight.

BNZ Markets Today

Doug Steel -

Relatively calm trading conditions prevailed for most of the night, with generally limited market moves, before negative Brexit headlines late in the session saw a risk off tone take hold. Equity markets oscillated around flat before pressing lower, likewise US yields. Oil prices have recovered a small amount of recent heavy losses. The US dollar sits around 0.2% lower on the indices we track.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

More optimism on US-China trade talks and a Brexit deal have supported risk currencies like the NZD, while GBP has been the top performer. US equities are stronger, while US Treasury yields haven’t responded to the better risk backdrop.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

It’s Veteran’s day holiday in the US, but US equity markets have remained under downward pressure to start the week, especially the tech sector. Brexit remains in focus too. Speculation of more UK cabinet resignations is increasing concern that Theresa May won’t be able to pass a Brexit deal through parliament, and this has weighed again on the GBP and EUR. On the flip side, the USD has extended its recent gains, with the various USD indices making fresh 18 month highs. The NZD has held up reasonably well, and is down only marginally against the USD overnight.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

Equities ended last week on a soft note, led by the tech sector. Amidst a backdrop of more cautious risk sentiment, US Treasury yields declined and the US dollar rose – the DXY is almost back to 18-month highs. Locally, NZ rates rose again on Friday, although there were some signs of receiving interest finally emerging after a very volatile week.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

Financial markets have been quiet ahead of the FOMC statement due 8am NZ time. Overnight currency moves have been insignificant, US equities are flat and US Treasury rates are little changed.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

The USD is modestly softer across the board after the in-line result of the US mid-term elections, US Treasury yields are down slightly, driven by the long end, and US equities are stronger. The NZD has been the star performer following the surprising strength in labour market data yesterday.

BNZ Market Today

Jason Wong -

Markets are treading water ahead of today’s US mid-term elections with volumes well below normal. GBP has shown another modest gain to make it the strongest currency over the past 24 hours on a day where nothing much has happened. US equities and Treasury rates are slightly higher.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

It has been an uneventful start to the week for financial markets ahead of a busy week, which includes the US mid-term elections and policy meetings by the Fed, RBA and RBNZ. Currency movements have been small apart from GBP which has swung around on Brexit headlines. After recent volatility in equity markets, overnight movements have been insignificant by comparison. US rates are slightly lower after last week’s big sell-off in Treasuries.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

A stronger than expected US non-farm payrolls report led to a sharp rise in US Treasury yields and an appreciation in the USD against G10 currencies. Emerging market currencies and equities performed strongly on reports that President Trump had instructed his staff to draft an outline for a possible trade deal with China, although White House advisor Kudlow later tried to cool expectations. Higher US bond yields weighed on US equities, which had initially risen on optimism for a US-China trade deal.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

After making fresh highs yesterday, the USD has moved sharply lower across the board over the past 24 hours. The NZD is the best performing currency in the G10, up more than 2%. Meanwhile, equities have moved higher again, helped by some more positive comments by President Trump on China.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

After what has been a terrible month for global equities, markets ended October in risk-on mode. US and European equity markets have risen strongly and US Treasury yields have moved higher. The USD has continued to push higher, helped by better than expected US data.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equities have moved modestly higher overnight, although the market remains volatile and risk sentiment cautious. Facebook’s earnings later this morning will be a key focus. The NZD and AUD have moved higher over the past 24 hours after President Trump discussed the possibility of a “great deal” with China.

BNZ Markets Today

Nick Smyth -

US equities have staged something of a recovery overnight, although the tech sector has again lagged. The more positive tone to risk assets has helped Treasury yields push a little higher and the JPY underperform. The NZD is little changed against the USD from Friday night’s close, although it has made gains on all the crosses.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US equities had another rough day, sending US Treasury rates lower, while JPY was the strongest of the majors in the risk-off environment. The NZD saw a couple of forces on Friday, with the net result being little change after a temporary shunt downwards.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US equities have recovered strongly after yesterday’s rout, putting some modest upward pressure on US Treasury yields, while the USD remains well bid. The NZD has remained tightly range-bound.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

US equities continue to fall, putting downward pressure on global rates. A hawkish Bank of Canada saw a stronger CAD, but otherwise the USD is generally stronger, seeing the NZD weaken a little.

BNZ Markets Today

Jason Wong -

On a day with little news, global equities have slumped again and US Treasury yields have followed the move lower. Interestingly, currency market movements have been modest, with the risk off mood seeing JPY modestly bid while the NZD range trades.

BNZ Markets Today

Jaso Wong -

The new week has begun with weaker risk sentiment prevailing, with commodity currencies underperforming and US equities in negative territory.