BNZ Markets Today
A risk-off tone has pervaded markets, driving down global equities and supporting bond markets. JPY has outperformed and the USD is broadly stronger, with the NZD probing a fresh seven-month of 0.5655 and Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since June, trading around the USD101k mark.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sensitive assets are little changed. The S&P is close to flat in afternoon trading and there was limited reaction to the manufacturing ISM which continues to point towards sluggish activity in the sector. Treasury yields are higher and the recent advance in the US dollar index has taken a breather. Oil prices were stable, following the weekend announcement that OPEC+ planned to pause output increases in the first quarter of 2026, after raising production in December. Brent crude is trading close to US$65 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended the month on a positive note. Earnings season remains in focus for investors. The vast majority of the 60% of S&P firms that have reported results so far have exceeded analyst estimates according to Bloomberg. The S&P closed 0.3% higher extending gains for October to 2.3%. Other global equity indices were mixed. The Nikkei surged 2% to a fresh record while European stocks closed lower. Price action in global bond markets was subdued, and the US dollar extended its recent move higher.
BNZ Markets Today
The rally in US equities has paused after investors reduced expectations for an interest-rate cut in December. This follows comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the FOMC yesterday that a cut at the next meeting was far from a done deal. The S&P is modestly lower in afternoon trade while the Euro Stoxx closed near flat. The dollar extended its post-FOMC rally, particularly against the yen, which weakened after the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady.
BNZ Markets Today
There were small net changes across global asset markets ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision this morning. US equity indices were marginally higher, and treasury yields increased 2-3bp across the curve. An initial advance for the US dollar index faded leaving major FX pairings little changed. Commodity currencies including the AUD and NZD made small gains, alongside the Canadian Dollar, with the Bank of Canada rate cut having little impact. Copper prices hit a record high in London amid optimism on US-China trade talks and challenging supply dynamics.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P has registered a fresh intra-day record high. Equities are supported by solid corporate earnings and a new deal from OpenAI and Microsoft which saw the latter company’s valuation reach US$4 trillion. Details have emerged about the potential US-China trade deal. Under the framework the US will roll back some tariffs if China reduces the exports of the chemicals that produce fentanyl.
BNZ Markets Today
US and Asian equity indices have reached fresh record highs, after encouraging signs from negotiations between the US and China, ahead of a leaders summit this week. Equities have been supported following benign US CPI data, which was released on Friday, and reinforced expectations for a 25bp rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets later this week. The US dollar is little changed and treasury yields are modestly higher. Gold prices fell below US$4,000 an ounce on diminished haven demand.
BNZ Markets Today
A surge in oil prices, after the US imposed additional sanctions on Russia, has contributed to higher treasury yields as the market looks ahead to CPI data this evening. The CPI report is the first major economic release since the government shutdown began. Risk sensitive assets are generally firmer. Equity indices in Asia and Europe closed higher and US equities are currently in positive territory. The AUD and NZD gained against the US dollar while moves in major currencies were modest.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sensitive assets have traded with a soft tone overnight. Outside of the FTSE, which gained after softer than expected UK CPI data, major equity indices have declined. Stocks in Asia fell and the Euro Stoxx closed 0.8% lower while US equity indices have registered losses in afternoon trading. Absolute moves across currency and rate markets have been small with limited economic data or other catalysts to prove direction. Oil prices sustained recent gains with Brent crude near US$62.70 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
The key market move overnight has been a slump in gold and silver prices following their explosive run higher. Global equity markets continue to push higher, with many bourses reaching new highs. Global rates are lower, with the US 10-year rate nudging down to 3.95%. Net currency moves have been modest apart from the yen weakening after Takaichi won the vote to become Japan’s PM.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light but the mood in equity markets have been positive, with investors shaking off the temporary bout of pessimism that pervaded late last week. The S&P500 is currently up over 1% and the Euro Stoxx 600 index closed 1% higher.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment turned positive on Friday from the European open, driving a modest gain for US equities and resulting in the US 10-year rate rising from a low of 3.93% to a NY close of 4.01%, up 7bps from the NZ close. Currency markets showed modest movements, with the NZD range trading and closing the week at 0.5725.
BNZ Markets Today
US equites are modestly weaker and US Treasury yields are lower, with risk sentiment weakening during the middle of the NY trading session. The 2-year Treasury rate is probing three-year lows while the 10-year rate has fallen below 4%. Currency movements have been modest, but commodity currencies have slightly underperformed overnight. The NZD trades at 0.5735 and NZD/AUD has sustained a lot of the gain seen in the wake of yesterday’s softer Australian employment report.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light. US equities are up slightly, paring strong gains after the open. The US 10-year rate took another peak below 4% but yields are now modestly higher. Currency movements have been modest and the NZD is down a touch around 0.5710.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a rollercoaster ride for markets with a big swing in the USD and US equities, reflecting gyrations in risk sentiment. US equities show a modest gain, recovering from a sharp loss. A stronger USD from yesterday afternoon drove down the NZD to a fresh six-month low below 0.57 before recovering. The US 10-year rate dipped below 4% overnight and currently trades at 4.03%.
BNZ Markets Today
Cooler heads are prevailing after the US-China trade war escalated on Friday, and this has contributed to some recovery in risk assets. US equities have recovered more than half of Friday’s loss and the AUD is the best major FX performer after being the worst performer on Friday. The NZD shows a small gain. The US bond market is closed for the Columbus Day holiday, but the futures market shows a small lift in yields.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment took a major dive during the overnight Friday trading session as the US-China trade détente abruptly ended. US equities tumbled, alongside a strong rally in US Treasuries that sent the 10-year rate towards 4%. FX safe-havens JPY and CHF outperformed, while the AUD was whacked the hardest. The NZD fell to around 0.5720 and was weaker on the key crosses apart from a decent bounce in NZD/AUD to 0.8835. Oil prices tumbled while gold recovered back above USD4000. US-China trade war escalation sets the scene for some volatile trading conditions through the rest of the month.
BNZ Markets Today
Without any obvious triggers, it has been a bad night for investors, with lower US and European equities, higher global rates and even gold prices are notably weaker. The USD is broadly stronger, and the NZD has fallen 1% from the NZ close to 0.5740.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light again. US equities have recovered after their one-day dip and US Treasury yields show small movements. Overnight, the NZD is the best performing currency we closely follow, recovering a lot of its loss seen after the RBNZ’s dovish 50bps cut yesterday, trading around 0.5780.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities have broken a winning streak and are modestly weaker overnight. Weaker risk sentiment has supported Treasuries, with the 10-year rate down 4bps to 4.11%. The USD is broadly stronger and the yen remains under pressure. NZD has weakened towards 0.58. All eyes will be on the RBNZ policy update today, with the market split between views of a 25 or 50bps rate cut.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been no economic news, but plenty of political news to keep the market on edge, including significant moves in Japan’s equities, bonds and currency following the shock selection of the new LDP leader. Overnight, France was inflicted with more political turmoil. The US government remains in shutdown mode. NZ is a beacon of stability by comparison, with the NZD trading at its high for the day around 0.5840, and gains on most crosses, including a 2% surge in NZD/JPY.
BNZ Markets Today
Last week ended on an uneventful note, not helped by the US government shutdown that resulted in delay in publishing the key US employment reports. US equities were little changed, and US Treasury yields pushed higher, partially reversing the fall in rates earlier in the week. The USD was broadly weaker in overnight trading, but moves were modest. The NZD pushed a little higher, closing the week around 0.5830.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light and markets show only modest movements amidst a US government shutdown. US equities show little change and US Treasuries have traded narrow ranges, with a small flattening bias. The USD is slightly stronger overnight. The NZD has traded a narrow range and is currently 0.5820. Oil prices are lower for a fourth consecutive day.
BNZ Markets Today
After a soft tone for risk sentiment in Asia, as the US government shutdown took effect, the S&P has recovered from an initial dip on open to be little changed. European equity indices registered solid gains. A weaker than expected ADP private payrolls reading was consistent with other data indicating the labour market is slowing and contributed to lower bond yields. The US dollar was mixed against G10 currencies and oil prices extended the recent decline. Brent crude traded towards US$65 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are little changed overnight, with hopes for a last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown fading, which would create uncertainty and delay the publication of key economic releases. The S&P wasn’t impacted by weaker-than-expected consumer-confidence data and oscillated in a narrow range. Oil prices extended the recent decline on concerns about increased OPEC+ supply - Brent crude traded towards US$67 per barrel. There was limited movement across government bond markets, and the US dollar is modestly weaker.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities retraced from earlier gains amid concerns about the risk of a US government slowdown. Prediction markets are implying a 70% chance of shutdown which could delay the publication of key economic data. This includes the September labour market report, which is scheduled for the end of the week, creating uncertainty for investors. These fears contributed to lower treasury yields. There was divergent price action in commodity markets with gold extending higher while oil prices fell on supply concerns. The S&P retraced from earlier gains and is 0.2% higher in afternoon trading.
BNZ Markets Today
After declining for three consecutive session, US equities rebounded into the end of last week with data pointing to resilience in the US economy. The market looked past President Trump’s announcement of fresh industry-focused tariffs, including a 100% duty on patented pharmaceuticals. The S&P closed 0.6% higher. Major European indices made solid gains with the Euro Stoxx index advancing 1%. Sovereign bond markets were little changed, and the US dollar was modestly weaker.
BNZ Markets Today
Stronger than expected US economic data overnight drove higher US rates, as the market pared scope for easier monetary policy, and broad gains in the USD. US equities are weaker for the third successive day. The NZD lurched below technical support of 0.58 while NZD cross movements have been contained.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets have traded with a more cautious tone overnight without any obvious driver, seeing modest falls in US equities and modestly higher US Treasury yields. The USD is broadly stronger and the NZD has underperformed, heading down towards support at 0.58 and with fresh multi-year lows on NZD/AUD and NZD/EUR crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets were largely stable overnight with Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s first speech since the FOMC last week providing few fresh clues on the outlook for monetary policy. Major US stock indices are lower and consolidating after the recent run up to record highs. The Euro Stoxx gained 0.6% while major Asian indices were mixed. Global government bond markets were little changed overall while the US dollar was softer at the margin against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities and gold have powered up to fresh record highs in the wake of the Fed restarting the easing cycle last week. Fed speakers have been doing the rounds, with the turn of the more hawkish FOMC members overnight and, coincidentally or not, US Treasuries have traded with a cautious tone, with rates nudging higher. European currencies have outperformed, and the NZD is a touch stronger.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities closed last week near record highs with sentiment aided by the prospect of further easing by the US Federal Reserve. The S&P ended the session 0.5% higher. Major stock indices were flat in Europe and the Nikkei declined after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) indicated plans to reduce its equity portfolio. The positive sentiment towards risk sensitive assets extended to credit markets where US high-grade spreads over treasuries reached 72bp, a fresh 27-year low.
BNZ Markets Today
In the aftermath of the US Fed’s rate cut yesterday, US equities are probing fresh record highs. For US Treasuries and the USD, it has been a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact, with yields extending higher and the USD making further broad gains, supported by stronger US data. The NZD has extended losses overnight, following the softer than expected GDP print yesterday, trading below 0.59.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets were largely in a holding pattern in the run up to the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision this morning. US equities and European equities were little changed, while treasury yields were higher, driven by the front end of the curve. Currency markets were stable. The US Dollar index remained above the multi-year low from early July having approached this level in recent sessions. There was limited currency market impact from UK inflation data and the Bank of Canada rate cut.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets continue to prepare for a dovish Fed policy update in less than 24 hours, with US Treasury yields edging lower and a broadly weaker USD, despite stronger than expected US retail sales. The euro has been a key beneficiary, rising to a four-year high, while the NZD has edged up towards 0.60.
BNZ Markets Today
Ahead of the Fed’s near-certain rate cut later this week, markets appear to already be factoring in the restarting of an easing cycle, with US equities rising to a fresh record high, alongside a modest fall in US Treasury yields and a broadly weaker USD.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P ended flat on Friday with the index consolidating near all-time highs after a solid week of gains. European markets were also little changed while stocks in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan closed at record levels. Weaker than expected US consumer confidence data did little to alter expectations for the FOMC this week. Government bonds are higher in yield with the largest moves seen in European markets. Currency markets were quiet. Oil prices were steady as US threats to sanction Russian crude didn’t materialise. Gold remained near a record high with prices holding close to $3,650 a troy ounce.
BNZ Markets Today
An in-line US CPI report and a jump in initial jobless claims drove lower US rates and a weaker USD, with the 10-year rate dipping below 4% at its low for the day. The record-breaking run for US equities has continued. NZD/USD has recovered to 0.5975 and is higher on the key crosses apart from a further nudge down in NZD/AUD.
BNZ Markets Today
Softer than expected US producer price inflation supported the case for the Federal Reserve to cut rates next week. Expectations for easier monetary policy supported risk sensitive assets with the S&P trading to a fresh all time high. Rising geopolitical tensions, after Poland shot down Russian drones which had crossed into its territory, had limited impact on sentiment. Major European indices closed were near flat while Asian markets advanced. Treasuries rallied and the US dollar is little changed. Brent crude prices increased almost 2% to US$67.60 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
A massive downward revision to US nonfarm payrolls only caused a temporary ripple in markets and US Treasury yields are modestly higher for the session. US equities are slightly higher and the USD shows a modest gain.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light but there has been some follow through of the price action seen on Friday night, following the softer than expected US payrolls report that supported the market’s view of the Fed restarting the easing cycle as soon as next week.
BNZ Markets Today
Weaker than expected US labour market data increased expectations for near term easing by the Federal Reserve and contributed to a rally across global bond markets. The weaker data weighed on equities. The S&P closed 0.3% lower after the index staged a modest recovery from the session lows. The US dollar was broadly weaker against G10 currencies. Oil prices declined ahead of the OPEC+ meeting that took place after the market close. Brent crude prices dipped towards US$65 at one point, the bottom end of the multi-month trading range.
BNZ Markets Today
A stronger US ISM services report didn’t flinch the bond market, with traders paying more attention to the softer labour market reports. Lower rates across the board have helped boost US equities. The USD has grinded broadly higher throughout the day, and the NZD has underperformed, falling to 0.5840 and lower on all the key crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
After coming under pressure in recent sessions, global bond markets got a reprieve, as weaker than expected US job openings data increased expectations for easing by the Federal Reserve. The recovery halted a bond market slide which has seen borrowing costs in some big economies reach the highest levels in years. Prior to the data, 30-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields had reached a record high of 3.29% and 30-year UK gilts yields increased to 5.75%, the highest level in more than twenty-five years.
BNZ Markets Today
Bonds and equities have been hit as investor appetite for both soured. Global rates are modestly higher across the board and US and European equities are lower, down more than 1%. The USD is broadly stronger, and GBP has underperformed, falling more than 1%. The NZD has fallen to 0.5860 while NZD/GBP is stronger.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets have begun the week on a very quiet note with the US closed for the Labour Day holiday.
There has been no market reaction to the federal appeals court ruling, after the close on Friday, that Trump had no legal authority to impose country tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The ruling is no surprise, and we said at the time of their imposition that the tariffs would be contested in court as there was no emergency to introduce them. The tariffs will remain for now and dragged out further in the courts, hence the market’s collective yawn at the decision.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equities fell on Friday, but major indices have made strong gains during the month. The S&P advanced 1.9% in August, its fourth straight month of gains. US consumption and inflation data was broadly in line with consensus estimates and didn’t alter expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates later in the month. After the weekly close, a US court has found most of the Trump administration’s tariffs to be illegal. However, the tariffs will stay in place pending a further appeal to the Supreme Court. A permanent halt on tariffs would reduce revenues which provide an offset to the administration’s tax cuts.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are probing fresh record highs, the US Treasuries curve has flattened and the USD is broadly weaker.
After the bell yesterday, Nvidia’s earnings report was broadly in line with expectations but the market focused on its data centre segment, where that fell a little short of expectations. Furthermore, the company excluded any AI chip revenue from China from its projections as it awaits further information from the US government codifying the recently imposed export tax on chips to China. The stock was down as much as 5% in afterhours trading yesterday but nearly all of that fall has been evaporated in today’s session.
BNZ Markets Today
US and European equity indices are little changed, as investors look ahead to key technology stock Nvidia’s results, which are due after the market close. The results will be a test for the artificial intelligence driven move that underpinned the rally in US stock indices. There was limited economic data to provide the market with direction. The US has increased import tariffs on India to 50% in response to its purchases of discounted Russian oil. Brent crude was little changed near US$68 per barrel. The treasury curve extended its recent steepening trend and G10 currencies are firmer against the US dollar.
BNZ Markets Today
Following President Trump’s “firing” of Fed Governor Cook, US Treasury yields are lower and the curve is steeper, while the USD shows a modest broadly-based fall. US equity investors saw the dip in futures as a buying opportunity and the S&P500 shows a small gain.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a typically quiet start to the new week with little newsflow to drive markets. Markets have settled after the significant price action seen in the wake of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish pivot in his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday night. Most economists have changed calls to include a 25bps cut at the Fed’s next meeting in September, with the caveat that it remains data dependent. A strong rebound in non-farm payrolls or an ugly CPI print ahead of the meeting could still derail the prospect of a rate cut, hence the market is pricing “only” 21bps for the meeting.
BNZ Markets Today
There were large moves across financial markets in response to US Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s widely anticipated address at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. Powell signalled the Fed may cut rates in September triggering large gains in equity markets, a rally in treasuries and a sharply weaker US dollar. The S&P closed 1.5% higher and the Russell 2000 index of small cap US equities gained almost 4%. Credit spreads narrowed.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets are trading cautiously ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech tonight, with lower US equities and moderately higher US Treasury yields. Currency movements have been modest. The NZD has traded a tight range overnight, flat around 0.5820, but has recovered on some key crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
Technology stocks weighed on the performance of US equity indices for a second day as investors rotated into value sectors like consumer goods, energy companies and healthcare. The Nasdaq is around 1% lower and close to 3% below the recent peak. Global bond yields are little changed with limited data to provide the market with direction. The US dollar and treasury yields declined after President Trump continued to pressure Fed officials.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light, but US equities are weaker, led by a notable fall in tech stocks. The risk-off vibe has seen US Treasuries well supported, with modest falls in rates. Commodity currencies have underperformed, resulting in the NZD probing levels just below 0.59 again.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a typically quiet start to the week for markets, with small movements across the board.
Focus is currently on the meeting at the White House between European leaders and President Trump to discuss the next steps in the Russia-Ukraine war, following the Trump-Putin meeting on Saturday. In a show of force and support for Ukraine President Zelensky, the heads of the UK, Germany, France, Italy and the EU have all made the effort to attend the meeting at short notice. Later today we’ll hear more about what offer European leaders might present Putin to support an end to the war.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended last week with a modest pullback amid mixed economic data. The closely watched US-Russia Summit in Alaska didn’t have any clear implications for markets. US retail sales rose in July and will help ease some of the concerns about the health of US consumers’ spending following the extreme economic uncertainty in April and May. However, the softening labour market and the expected pass through to prices from tariffs, suggests a meaningful acceleration is unlikely.
BNZ Markets Today
A hot US PPI print dampened the mood in the market, driving up US rates, but US equities recovered most of their fall. Higher rates drove broad gains in the USD and the NZD has underperformed, down 1% overnight and lower on key crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sensitive markets remain well supported with limited economic data to provide markets with direction. The MSCI All Country World Index rose to an all-time high, supported by expectations for rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. In Japan, the Nikkei-225 hit a fresh record high while the Euro Stoxx gained close to 1%. Meanwhile, the S&P reached a fresh intra-day record high, just below 6,500, before retracing. Global bonds moved lower in yield and the US dollar declined against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
In-line US CPI figures showing less impact of tariffs on goods prices than feared, supported lower US short-term rates. With relatively steady long-term rates, the Treasuries curve steepened. US equities show solid gains to fresh record highs, while the USD is broadly weaker.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week has begun with little change in US equities, a small fall in US Treasury yields and a modest broad-based lift in the USD. President Trump has been at the centre of various news flow – his name appears a record-breaking ten times in this report – but none of which has been particularly market moving.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended last week on a firm note. The S&P gained almost 1% and closed just below the record high from the end of July, having fully retraced the post labour market selloff. There was limited first tier data or other catalysts to provide the market with direction. The Euro Stoxx index was little changed while the Nikkei gained 2.0% after the US agreed to end ‘stacking’ on universal tariff and cut car levies. Global bonds closed higher in yield and absolute moves in currency markets were small.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest, with US equities showing a moderate fall, slightly higher Treasury yields and modest net movements in currencies, with the largest move being a stronger GBP after a hawkish BoE policy update. The NZD is little changed near 0.5940.