BNZ Markets Today
The focus for markets late last week was President Trump’s decision to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Warsh, a former Fed Governor, will succeed Jay Powell when Powell’s term ends in May, subject to Senate approval. Warsh is seen as less supportive of deep rate cuts and more concerned about inflation than other candidates. The US dollar advanced, equities closed lower, and longer term Treasury yields were mixed. Volatility in precious metals continued, with gold prices falling below US$4,800/oz—a decline of nearly 15% relative to the previous session’s high.
BNZ Markets Today
There was a risk-off tone across global equity markets led by US technology stocks. Microsoft reported higher-than-expected spending on AI infrastructure, reigniting investor concerns about the vast capital expenditure by large US technology companies. The S&P is down 1% in afternoon trading having rebounded from a larger decline. News of a potential de-escalation in the Ukraine conflict contributed to the recovery off the session lows. There were limited moves for government bond markets while the US dollar is broadly firmer against G10 currencies. The AUD and NZD had large swings and traded in a wide range.
BNZ Markets Today
Ahead of the Fed’s policy update this morning, net market movements have been contained. An early rally in US equities faded and the US 10-year rate remain tightly range-bound. JPY and EUR are weaker overnight while the NZD has been steady in the low 0.60s.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities managed to look past a decline in consumer confidence and gained alongside global indices. The S&P is close to 0.5% higher in afternoon trading, with the index only marginally below the record high, set earlier in the month. The US dollar remained under pressure, and made broad based losses against G10 currencies, with the dollar index falling to a four-year low. US treasuries were little changed overall. Brent crude prices traded above US$67 on geopolitical concerns with a growing US military presence near Iran.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week kicked off with a stronger yen as the chance of official intervention overhung the market. The USD remained under pressure and the DXY index fell to a four-month low. The NZD recovered further towards 0.60. Global equity markets are stronger, while the US 10-year rate remain tightly range-bound.
BNZ Markets Today
Friday’s price action was a case of not much to see in equities and bond markets, but notable moves in commodities and currencies. Precious metals rose to fresh record highs and oil prices jumped over 3%. The USD was broadly weaker again, supporting further NZD appreciation to 0.5950, while JPY was the strongest major after some official price checks in response to yen weakness post the BoJ meeting.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk appetite improved after Trump announced a framework for a future deal on Greenland, resulting in stronger global equity markets, and the NZD and AUD outperforming. Gains have been extended overnight in the face of a broadly weaker USD, seeing the NZD pierce up through 0.59.
BNZ Markets Today
President Trump is again at the centre of market attention and his ruling out of force to acquire Greenland drove a bounce-back in global equity markets. There has been less impact on bonds and currency markets, with modest reactions. The US 10-year rate is little changed. The NZD weakened a little after making fresh highs overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
The fallout from rising US-EU political relations over the future of Greenland continues to reverberate through markets, with a meltdown in Japan’s bond market thrown into the mix. Global equity markets are weaker, global rates are higher, and the USD is broadly weaker. The NZD has become a safe-haven (lol), appreciating further to 0.5850 and up on most key crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
As markets opened for the new week there was keen interest in the response to President Trump’s weekend threat of new tariffs on eight European countries to persuade them to give up Greenland, alongside chatter that French President Macron was urging the EU to activate the powerful anti-coercion instrument, seen as a bazooka to hit US trade and investment into the region.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sensitive assets were little changed into the weekly close. US equities ended the session with flat returns and global indices also registered small moves. Investor sentiment has remained upbeat with global equities consolidating near record highs and strong demand for credit amid record issuance in the first half of January. Treasury yields increased and the US dollar recovered off the session lows, after comments from President Trump appeared to decrease the chances of Kevin Hassett becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair, when Powell’s term expires in May.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities have rebounded from the weakness in the previous session. The S&P is up around 0.7% currently and there were decent gains for key European indices. Treasury yields increased after resilient labour market data and the US dollar gained against European currencies. Oil prices declined sharply, and precious metals also slipped from their record highs. Silver prices were volatile and declined close to 7% intraday before recovering.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities have fallen amid rising geopolitical tensions while metals prices have continued to advance. The S&P is down close to 1% in afternoon trading with limited impact from US retail sales and PPI data. The Nikkei extended its recent gains. It was reported that plans for a snap general election in February have been outlined to senior colleagues by Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi. Metals including gold, silver, copper, and tin have hit record highs as investors seek alternatives to traditional assets. Global government bond market yields are broadly lower, and the US dollar index declined at the margin.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets are broadly stable overnight. US core CPI undershot expectations but had limited lasting impact on US rates. Investor concerns about the investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell appeared to abate. Central bank governors from 11 institutions, issued a statement of support for Powell and the Fed's independence, which contributed to a reversal of the US dollar’s decline from the previous session. The S&P lurched to a fresh intraday record high after the CPI data but has since retraced. The potential for a snap election in Japan saw the Nikkei gain 3% and reach a record high while the yen and government bonds were under pressure.
BNZ Markets Today
This is the first Markets Today for 2026. We wish all our readers a Happy New Year.
US equity futures came under pressure in Asian trade yesterday after US Federal Reserve Chair Powell revealed that the Justice Department was threatening a criminal indictment over renovations of its headquarters. Powell said this was a consequence of its interest-rate policies, which raised further concerns about the central bank’s independence and the strength of US institutions more broadly, amid ongoing political pressure. The US dollar declined in response and precious metals gained on safe haven flows. Gold prices reached to a fresh record high above US$4600 per troy ounce.
BNZ Markets Today
Softer than expected US CPI data reinforced expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and contributed to solid rally for equity markets. The S&P is more than 1% higher in afternoon trading with larger gains for the Nasdaq. Global government bond yields are broadly lower while the US dollar is little changed against the major FX pairings.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are notably weaker, dragged down by the tech sector, but there has been limited movement in US Treasuries and currencies. The NZD has traded in a narrow range. Oil prices have recovered moderately from yesterday’s low after Trump’s blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers.
BNZ Markets Today
Following the mass of data releases overnight the net result has been not a lot of market price action, although the direction of travel has been slightly lower US rates, a slightly weaker USD and modestly weaker US equities. Oil prices continue to head south, with WTI crude down to its lowest level in over four years. The NZD continues to linger just under the 0.58 mark.
BNZ Markets Today
Ahead of a busy week before Christmas, including the key US employment report tonight, market movements have been modest. US equities are slightly softer in early afternoon trading, global rates are flat to down slightly, and currency moves have been modest. The NZD has recovered much of the loss seen after an unexpected statement from RBNZ Governor Breman that sent interest rates lower.
BNZ Markets Today
Concerns about the outlook for artificial intelligence and technology stocks weighed on investor risk sentiment into the weekly close. A disappointing sales outlook from Broadcom fuelled investor concerns about high valuations for companies linked to the sector. The S&P fell 1% and the Nasdaq declined 1.7% while European indices also closed lower. Global government bond market yields increased and the US dollar was broadly stable against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
The rally in US equities after the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut has lost momentum following disappointing results from Oracle which weighed on technology shares. The Nasdaq has fallen close to 1% in afternoon trading and the S&P is also in negative territory. However, The Dow industrials index has bucked the trend, rising nearly 1% and hitting an intraday record above 48500. US treasury yields are modestly lower, and the US dollar has extended its post-FOMC decline. Copper prices reached a fresh record high and other industrial metals gained. Copper has rallied almost 35% this year with supply constrained by a series of mine disruptions.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest in the lead-up to the US Fed’s policy announcement due at 8am NZ time. Heading into the meeting, US equities are flat, US Treasury yields are trading at the bottom of their range for the day, and the USD is broadly weaker, although moves haven’t been significant.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest, with US equities slightly higher and little change in the US 10-year rate since the NZ close. Australian rates and the AUD increased after the RBA opened the door to tightening policy from early next year. NZD/AUD has nudged lower but NZD/USD traded at a fresh six-week high just under 0.58, while the yen continues to underperform.
BNZ Markets Today
Global rates are higher overnight, led by Europe after some hawkish commentary from the ECB’s Schnabel. Higher rates have dampened spirits for equity investors, with the S&P500 down 0.4% in early afternoon trading after meeting some resistance near October’s record high. The NZD is currently at 0.5775, after trading at a fresh six-week high overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
Net moves across risk sensitive assets were modest into the weekly close. The S&P traded up towards the late October record high above 6900 before paring its gains to end the session only marginally in positive territory. There was limited market reaction to the delayed release of the September PCE report. Global sovereign bond yields closed higher in yield, and the US dollar was stable against G10 currencies, except for the Canadian dollar, which gained after strong labour market data.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements continue to show only modest changes in the absence of a fresh narrative to drive big moves. US equities show little net change and global rates are mostly higher. Net currency moves have been modest and the NZD is flat, hovering around 0.5775.
BNZ Markets Today
A soft ADP employment print solidified market expectations for a Fed rate cut next week, but the net move in US Treasuries overnight has been small. US equities show a small gain. The USD continues its weaker run and the NZD has pushed up to monthly highs just over 0.5770.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets movements have been modest across equities, rates and currencies.
As US markets opened overnight, risk appetite was higher, with a strong recovery in bitcoin, which has sustained a lift of 6% to be back over USD91k. US equities opened stronger, with the more speculative areas outperforming, including IT stocks. In early afternoon trading the S&P500 is up 0.4%.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities have started the new month with a soft tone. S&P futures declined during Asian trade yesterday, amid a sharp selloff in cryptocurrencies, and the cash market is marginally lower in afternoon US trading. The US dollar slipped against major FX pairings while global bond markets are higher in yield. Oil prices gained after OPEC+ confirmed over the weekend that it will continue with plans to pause production hikes during the first quarter of next year. Silver prices extended higher and reached a fresh record above US$58 per ounce.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities made modest gains into month-end with investors having to contend with a technical issue at CME Group that disrupted futures trading including for stock indices, treasuries, gold and oil contracts. The S&P closed 0.5% higher on the day and ended a volatile month near unchanged. Little over a week ago, the index had been down close to 5%. Other global stock indices were also near flat. The US dollar was broadly stable against G10 currencies and treasury yields edged higher.
BNZ Markets Today
The overnight trading session has been quiet given the US Thanksgiving holiday, with little news or price action.
S&P500 futures are flat and the Euro Stoxx 60 index closed up just 0.1%. US 10-year Treasury futures have traded a tight range and are little changed from the NZ close. European rates show little movement. As the market fully digests the UK Budget, the 10-year UK gilt yield is up 3bps to 4.46%, reversing about half of the fall of the previous day.
BNZ Markets Today
There was limited economic data to provide the market with direction. Initial jobless claims fell slightly despite expectations for a modest increase. Core US durable orders for September beat the consensus estimate but the data is largely stale by this point. Treasury yields increased following the claims data, led by the front end of the curve, though moves were not large. 10-year yields have since retraced and are little changed at 4.01%.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been plenty of news overnight to digest. Oil prices are lower as a Ukraine-Russia peace deal looks closer than ever. US data released were soft and there was a report that Trump is most likely to select the most dovish candidate as the next Fed chair. The USD is broadly weaker and the 10-year rate has slipped below 4%. The NZD has pushed higher but has underperformed against EUR, GBP and JPY ahead of the RBNZ’s meeting today.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light. The only market movement of note has been an extension of Friday’s rally in US equities, with another solid gain to kick off the new week. Currencies and bonds show only small movements, and the NZD continues to languish just over 0.56.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities rebounded on Friday after a week characterised by erratic price action. The S&P closed 1% higher following comments from a top Federal Reserve official that raised expectations for a December rate cut. Investors remain cautious after the wild swings in equity markets in recent sessions. The S&P has its biggest intraday reversal on Thursday (3.6%) since the Liberation Day volatility in April. Despite the rebound on Friday, the index fell almost 2% last week and is down 3.5% so far this month. US treasuries rallied and the US dollar index was stable with mixed returns for G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities pared earlier gains and have shown a sharp, steady decline in the two hours leading up to the publication of this report. A lift in the US unemployment rate resulted in lower yields, with the shift in risk sentiment adding to that move. Commodity currencies have underperformed overnight, seeing the NZD fall back to just below 0.56.
BNZ Markets Today
The most notable market movement has been broad gains in the USD, driving the NZD below 0.56. US equities are flat ahead of Nvidia’s earnings announcement, while Treasuries continue to trade a tight range.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sensitive assets remained under pressure overnight after the weak Asian session yesterday. There is growing caution from investors ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and about the elevated valuations in the artificial intelligence sector. There are also concerns about the required capital expenditure which is reliant on issuing huge amounts of debt. The S&P is lower in afternoon trading and there have been large falls across European and Asian markets. The VIX index of implied S&P volatility, increased to 26, the highest level since the liberation day turmoil in April.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week has begun with small net changes in US equities and Treasuries and modest changes in currencies. The NZD trades this morning at 0.5670, up slightly overnight but down slightly from last week’s close.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities rebounded from sharp decline and closed near to flat. After a weak session the previous day, the S&P had initially fallen more than 1% before recovering. Investors have cited high valuations for technology firms and reduced expectations for easing by the Federal Reserve as headwinds for the equity market. The were heavy losses for European and Asian markets earlier in the day. US treasury yields increased while the US dollar was stable on the major crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
The end of the US government shutdown has been met with a decent fall in US equities and slightly higher US rates, as expectations for Fed easing fade. Despite that backdrop, the USD is broadly weaker. The NZD has pushed up to 0.5670 and NZD/AUD recovered all of its loss following the strong Australian labour market report, with the AUD underperforming overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest in the absence of any breaking news.
The end of the US government shutdown is imminent later today, when House lawmakers vote on a bill that has already been approved by the Senate and President Trump. There will be some delays in reopening over coming days so the economic hit will endure a little longer, before activity bounces back. By next week we might see the return of some official economic releases. The government will be funded through 30 January, while select agencies will be funded through the whole fiscal year. Some work will be required to avoid another shutdown in just over two months.
BNZ Markets Today
US equites are marginally lower in afternoon trading but have largely maintained the gain from the previous session on optimism the longest US government shutdown is coming to an end. Stocks in Europe extended higher. The Euro Stoxx index advanced more than 1%. Global bond yields are broadly lower, and gilts outperformed after softer than expected labour market data. The US dollar is broadly weaker against G10 currencies. Oil prices are higher with Brent crude trading above US$65 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment was underpinned at the start of the trading week amid expectations for deal that would end the longest ever US government shutdown. The US Senate took a step towards re-opening the government after a group of Democrats crossed party lines to endorse a compromise plan. The Senate will need vote on the deal, which is not currently scheduled, then the House will need to pass the bill, before President Trump signs it into law. The political developments provided a boost to global equities. The Euro Stoxx closed 1.8% higher and the S&P has gained 0.7% in afternoon trading while credit spreads have tightened.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P declined by close to 1.5% on Friday, before staging a recovery, after Senate Democrats scaled back their demands to end the government shutdown. Investor sentiment had been impacted by signs of weakness in the US labour market and falling consumer confidence. Technology stocks remain in focus amid concerns about high valuations. Major equity indices in Europe and Asia closed lower. Global bond markets were mixed while the US dollar was broadly weaker against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US Treasuries reversed the previous day’s selloff, with the market supported by some soft US labour market reports, with rates down about 5-8bps for the day. US equities are down 1%. The risk-off mood has seen the NZD and AUD underperform, both falling about 0.6% overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been a decent selloff in US Treasuries overnight following stronger than expected US economic data and the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement. The 5-7bps lift in yields hasn’t perturbed the US equity market, with a decent rebound after yesterday’s hefty loss. Currency markets show little response to higher US rates. The NZD is a touch stronger overnight and over the past 24 hours.
BNZ Markets Today
A risk-off tone has pervaded markets, driving down global equities and supporting bond markets. JPY has outperformed and the USD is broadly stronger, with the NZD probing a fresh seven-month of 0.5655 and Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since June, trading around the USD101k mark.