BNZ Markets Today
Concerns about rising US debt and budget deficits has contributed to further rise in US treasury yields. 30-year bonds are trading back above 5.0%. Rising yields have weighed on the S&P which is down close to 1%. Currency markets were subdued overall. The jump in oil prices in Asian trade, linked to a CNN reported that US intelligence had suggested Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, has fully retraced. Brent crude is trading around US$65 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets are generally higher with decent gains across European and Asian indices. However, US equities are little changed, and consolidating near the recent highs, after a strong rally over the past month. Government bond curves have continued to steepen, particularly at the longer end of the yield curve, with a large selloff in Japan after a weak bond auction. The US dollar is generally softer against G10 currencies, though the AUD underperformed after the central bank meeting.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment began the week with a soft tone, after the downgrade to the US government’s credit rating by Moody’s Ratings, near the global close on Friday. S&P equity index futures fell more than 1% in Asian trade, treasury yields moved higher with the curve steepening and the US dollar fell. Risk sentiment has rebounded overnight with the S&P fully unwinding its earlier fall and treasuries also recovering.
BNZ Markets Today
Late in Friday’s trading session, Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, resulting in a weak close for US Treasuries, which immediately jumped 5bps. The S&P500 had already closed up 0.7% before the announcement but US index ETFs trading after the close fell about 1%. The USD barely fell after making overnight gains after the NZ close. The NZD closed the week around 0.5580.
BNZ Markets Today
Bond and equity investors celebrated weaker US data, taking US rates lower and US equities higher. The currency market shows a risk-off tendency, with safe havens CHF and JPY outperforming against further weakness in the NZD and AUD.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets are in a consolidation mode, against the backdrop of light newsflow. President Trump has been busy in the Middle East posting videos on social media of himself travelling in the region.
BNZ Markets Today
In the aftermath of the Trump’s tariff U-turn that significantly de-escalated the US-China trade war, US equities have made further gains and US Treasuries have looked through the softer-than-expected US CPI report, with yields pushing higher. The USD has reversed course after yesterday’s sharp recovery, helping the NZD recover to 0.5940.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week has begun with some significant moves in market prices, following de-escalation of the US-China trade war, with both parties agreeing to temporarily reduce tariffs to more palatable levels ahead of further talks. Equity markets have soared, led by the US, global rates are much higher, and the USD has recovered strongly across the board. This sees the NZD probing 0.5850.
BNZ Markets Today
US asset markets were largely in a holding pattern into the weekly close ahead of the first official trade talks between the US and China in Switzerland. US equities and treasury yields ended the session little changed with limited first tier economic data to provide the market with direction. European equities advanced. The Dax index in Germany has fully retraced its April drawdown and closed above its previous March peak.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment is higher on trade war de-escalation with a US and UK trade “framework” and President Trump providing positive signals on this weekend’s US-China trade talks and telling everyone to buy stocks. US equities are up over 1% and Treasury yields are up 10-13bps. Hopes for trade deals have supported the USD across the board and the NZD has fallen to 0.59. GBP has fallen less after the BoE delivered a hawkish cut.
BNZ Markets Today
Further signs of a de-escalation in the US China trade war provided support to risk sensitive assets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. There was confirmation of trade talks between the US and China. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with Chinese officials this weekend in Switzerland. In addition, Chinese officials outlined a range of measures aimed at supporting the economy.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are lower, US Treasury yields are lower, and the USD is broadly weaker, with the market remaining fixated on tariffs and the impact for the US economy. The NZD is trading with a 0.60 handle this morning.
BNZ Markets Today
Taiwan was in the spotlight during the Asian trading session after another surge in its currency, not helped by speculation around US trade deals. There was spillover into other currencies and the NZD is down a touch overnight after a failed attempt to break back above 0.60. A stronger than expected ISM services index helped US equities recover early losses and pushed up US Treasury yields. The UK and some Asian markets were closed for holidays.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets made solid gains into the end of last week supported by signs of a potential de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China along with resilient US labour market data. China’s Ministry of Commerce said it is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US and that US officials have repeatedly expressed a desire to negotiate with China on tariffs. Bloomberg reported that China has started to exempt some US imports from tariffs, representing around US$40 billion, aimed at reducing the impact on its economy.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are higher following strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta and the ISM manufacturing index didn’t fall as much as expected, even if there are clear signs of cracks opening in the US economy. Sentiment has also been supported by chatter that the US is trying to initiate trade talks with China. These factors supported a lift in US Treasury yields and a broadly stronger USD. The NZD slipped below 0.59 earlier this morning. Many European and Asian markets have been closed for May Day holidays.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities fell sharply after weak GDP data and lacklustre corporate earnings. At one point the index fell more than 2% before staging a partial rebound. There was a large amount of economic for investors to digest. Global bond yields are generally lower, and the dollar is mixed against G10 currencies, albeit with relatively small absolute moves. Brent crude prices fell towards US$63 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
The “Sell America” trade shows further sign of unwinding. US equities are up for a sixth consecutive day, with the S&P500 showing a current gain of 0.6%, supported by a backdown in auto tariffs. US economic data were awful, supporting a lower rates backdrop. Currency movements have been modest, but the USD is broadly stronger, and the NZD and AUD have underperformed over the past 24 hours.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week has begun with US equities reversing some of last week’s strong recovery, US Treasury yields falling modestly with a steepening bias and the USD on the back foot, with negative headlines on tariffs and the prospects for the US economy.
BNZ Markets Today
The recovery in investor risk appetite continued into the end of last week. The S&P gained 0.7% amid conflicting signals on trade negotiations. Chinese officials have denied any talks are taking place. However, a Bloomberg report suggested policymakers are considering suspending the 125% tariff on some US imports. Meanwhile, President Trump noted US levies on China will be maintained without ‘something substantial’ in return. He also said another delay to reciprocal tariffs was unlikely.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets have been whippy in response to headlines on tariffs but the net result is stronger global equity markets and small net movement in US Treasuries with a curve flattening bias. The USD is broadly stronger overnight. The NZD couldn’t sustain a brief move back over 0.60 and is trading back down around 0.5960.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been some reversal of yesterday’s price action, with US equities and the USD recovering and the Treasuries curve flattening. The NZD has slipped back below 0.60.
BNZ Markets Today
US assets have sold off after President Trump kicked off a renewed campaign attacking Fed Chair Powell before Easter and continuing that overnight. While price action was muted Thursday night, the market stepped up a gear from yesterday, after further digesting the implications of the Fed losing its independence. US equities have plunged, the US Treasuries curve is much steeper, and USD indices are probing fresh multi-year lows. The NZD broke above 0.60 yesterday and near the figure.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are under pressure again, led by the IT sector, after the White House placed restrictions on Nvidia chip sales to China. US Treasury yields are lower for a third successive day. Net currency movements have been modest.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets have been relatively calm compared to recent weeks, with only a couple of negative trade war-related headlines to digest. US equities are flat, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has fallen for a second successive day, further reversing some of last week’s chunky rise. While the USD is broadly stronger overnight, the NZD has sustained much of the rally seen during local trading hours that saw it trade with a 0.59 handle for the first time this year.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets have begun the week on a calmer note but there have still been some noteworthy movements, including a strong rally in US Treasuries, reversing some of last week’s hefty move. Global equity markets are stronger and the NZD has outperformed, adding to last week’s strong recovery and making a fresh 2025 high just over 0.5890.
BNZ Markets Today
The US dollar fell to a three-year low and treasury yields moved higher amid continued elevated volatility across global financial markets. Equities recovered from an earlier drop in the Asian time zone, and the S&P closed 1.8% higher, after a week of extraordinarily large price swings. Boston Fed president Susan Collins said markets are continuing to function well, but the central bank would be willing to act and has the tools to address concerns about liquidity, should conditions become disorderly.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets continue to see large swings. After posting one the largest ever one day gains, the S&P has fallen sharply and is currently ~3% lower, albeit off the session lows. Investors are concerned about escalating trade war between the US and China. China now faces an effective 145% tariff rate after the latest hike. Front end treasury yields dropped sharply, and the US dollar fell against G10 currencies. Oil prices fell close to 3% with Brent crude trading back towards US$63. Meanwhile gold prices reached a fresh record of US$3175 per troy ounce.
BNZ Markets Today
The extreme volatility has continued across global financial markets. Equity indices, which had already rebounded from earlier losses, surged higher after President Trump announced a 90 day pause on the implementation of tariffs on non-retaliating countries. This covers the excess reciprocal excess tariffs, the 10% baseline will remain, and is effective immediately. China is an exception, and tariffs have been increased to 125%.
BNZ Markets Today
Financial markets remain choppy with the ongoing focus on Trump’s tariff agenda, in particular the scope for any rollback and their economic impact. The US 10-year rate has pushed higher, US equities erased a strong gain to be flat with an hour left of trading and a return of the NZD to a 0.56 handle proved short-lived.
BNZ Markets Today
Financial markets have been wild overnight, with extreme volatility due to poor liquidity conditions and not helped by an active session by President Trump on his social media account, including the threat of an additional 50% tariffs against China. As we go to print, US cash equities show a modest gain, wiping out early losses. US Treasury yields are much higher, and the NZD has continued to languish in the 0.55s but importantly the key support level of 0.55 has held.
BNZ Markets Today
There was extreme volatility across global financial markets into the end of last week. The S&P closed the session more than 6% lower and there were huge moves in currency markets. The US dollar strengthened against G10 currencies and left its largest footprint in the NZD and AUD, which dropped 3% and 4% respectively against the US dollar from the local close. US Treasuries extended the recent rally with 10-yields trading below 4.0%.
BNZ Markets Today
Liberation Day has arrived and in a couple of hours (from 9am NZ time) we’ll find out where President Trump and his team have landed on applying reciprocal tariffs. US equities and Treasuries had a rollercoaster session overnight, with much weak risk sentiment showing a sharp reversal and both equities and rates are higher. The NZD has sustained the gain seen during NZ trading hours and sits comfortably above 0.57.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity futures have rebounded from a soft session in the Asian time zone yesterday as US tariffs loom over markets. The S&P is up around 0.5% in afternoon trade. Asset markets are likely to remain on edge in the leadup to ‘Liberation Day’. US treasury secretary Bessent said President Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs at 8am tomorrow (NZT). Treasury yields extended lower, and the US dollar was generally weaker against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week has begun in the same fashion as last week ended, with weaker risk appetite as investors count down the days to Liberation Day, now just two sleeps away. Global equity markets are weaker, and commodity currencies have underperformed, seeing the NZD tumble below 0.57.
BNZ Markets Today
Weak risk sentiment contributed to a large fall in US equities and an outperformance of safe haven assets into the end of last week. Concerns about the widening trade war and US economic data, which pointed to slowing consumption and higher inflation, also weighed on sentiment. The S&P closed 2% lower while treasury yields dropped sharply across the curve. The yen outperformed within G10 currencies and gold prices have hit a new record high above US$3080 per troy ounce.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets are little changed in afternoon trade, after President Trump pressed ahead with tariffs on car manufacturers as part of a widening trade war, which weighed on share prices in the sector. The S&P oscillated around flat in the absence of first tier economic data. European indices closed lower with the Euro Stoxx falling 0.7%. Treasuries edged higher in yield while the US dollar is mixed against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
There was a soft risk tone overnight with US equities reversing some of the gains from earlier in the week. The S&P is close to 1% lower in early afternoon trade amid further tariff uncertainty. It was reported that President Trump will announce taxes on US car imports this morning, ahead of the broader imposition of tariffs, next week. Treasury yields moved modestly higher, and the US dollar was mixed against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest, with flat US equities, a small fall in US Treasury yields and small broadly-based gains for major currencies against the USD.
After the latest talks in Saudi Arabia between the US and Russia regarding the war in Ukraine, the US said Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea and to work out mechanisms for implementing their ban on strikes against energy infrastructure. The Kremlin confirmed the Black Sea ceasefire and said it was dependent on sanctions relief for banks and companies involved in agriculture exports. The agreement resulted in oil prices falling after some gains were made overnight, with the net result being Brent crude showing a modest fall for the day to just below USD73 a barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week has begun with higher risk appetite, supporting a strong lift in US equities and pushing up US Treasury yields. However, there has been no positive spillover into the NZD, which shows a modest fall, while JPY has underperformed.
BNZ Markets Today
Friday saw an uneventful end to the trading week, with a lack of newsflow to drive market prices. Markets look to be in a holding pattern ahead of 2 April, which President Trump calls “Liberation Day”, the day when his reciprocal tariffs begin to take effect. Speaking at the White House, Trump said there will be flexibility on the forthcoming tariffs. “I don’t change, but the word flexibility is an important word”.
BNZ Markets Today
In the wake of the Fed’s policy update yesterday, US Treasuries are well supported, with the market comforted by Chair Powell seeing the impact on inflation of higher tariffs as “transitory”. We thought Powell might have avoided that word, given the Fed’s view of inflation being transitory during the COVID episode proved to be wrong, but the market seems to be buying into the narrative.
BNZ Markets Today
In the lead up to the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision this morning, US equities advanced while treasury yields and US dollar moved higher, in the absence of first tier economic data. Commodity markets were subdued with gold prices consolidating near record highs above US$3000 per troy ounce and brent crude was stable near US$71 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
After two positive days, US equities are back in the red, with the S&P500 down 1% in early afternoon trading, weighed down by the mega techs. US Treasury yields continue to consolidate. The 10-year rate has traded a 4.27-4.33% range and currently sits at the bottom end, down a touch from the NZ close.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets are on a positive footing to start the week, following on from the strong recovery in US markets on Friday. The S&P500 is up 0.6% in early afternoon trading, with the IT sector a laggard. The Euro Stoxx 600 index rose 0.8%.
President Trump will speak with President Putin on Tuesday, with Trump saying “a lot of work” had been done over the weekend ahead of the planned conversation. Putin has so far pushed back against the US-brokered plan for an immediate ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia war.
BNZ Markets Today
Investor risk appetite recovered into the end of last week. After the S&P had previously entered a correction, following the 10% fall from its February peak, the index rebounded strongly and closed the session 2% higher. The announcement of a deal by German politicians to proceed with a massive fiscal expansion supported European stocks. Chinese equities also advanced, led by consumer shares. Policy makers have outlined steps to boost consumption. US treasury yields moved higher while the US dollar was broadly weaker against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
More tariff threats, a possible US government shutdown and doubts over a Ukraine-Russia peace deal are all overhanging the market, resulting in weaker risk appetite – US equities are down significantly again, US Treasury yields are lower, and the yen has outperformed. The NZD is flirting with the 0.57 level.
BNZ Markets Today
Ongoing global trade tensions remain a focus for markets. The White House confirmed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium would come into effect yesterday, without exemptions for any US trading partners. This prompted a response from the European Union which launched countermeasures on €26 billion of US imports. US equity markets are higher in afternoon trading though price action remains volatile. There was a muted response to softer than expected US CPI data.
BNZ Markets Today
President Trump’s tariff agenda continues to dominate market price action, with a ratchetting up on pressure against Canada driving further weakness in US equities and a weaker CAD.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light to start the week but increased anxiety over President Trump’s policy agenda, particularly tariffs and slashing Federal government spending, continues to impact the market, with much lower equities and Treasury yields falling. Of note, President Trump wouldn’t rule out his policies causing a recession. On a Sunday Fox news interview he said “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is big”.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets rebounded from initial losses to close 0.5% higher with US labour market data closely matching expectations. US treasury yields moved higher as equities recovered while European bond markets ended little changed after the large selloff in previous sessions. The US dollar extended its decline against European currencies. Brent crude stabilised above US$71 per barrel and gold prices were stable, with data revealing China has expanded its reserves, for the fourth consecutive month in February.
BNZ Markets Today
News on tariffs continues to inject volatility into markets. Soon after we went to press yesterday the White House announced a one-month exemption for automakers that comply with the North American trade agreement known as USMCA, which drove stronger US equities into the close. In overnight news, Commerce Secretary Lutnick told CNBC that President Trump is likely to defer his 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for all goods and services covered by USMCA and President Trump confirmed this an hour later for Mexico, and we await any announcement for Canada. Trading in US equities has been choppy, and the market is falling rapidly as we go to print, with the S&P500 down around 2%.
BNZ Markets Today
There have been large moves across European markets after Germany revealed plans to reform its debt brake to allow for more defence and infrastructure spending. This contributed to a significant increase in European yields, a stronger euro and large gains for European equity indices. The Dax closed more than 3% higher. This provided a contrast with more subdued price action in US markets where the S&P is modestly higher.
BNZ Markets Today
Hey Grok, President Trump has just imposed new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. Give me a witty limerick to begin my daily report:
“A tariff from Trump, oh so bold,
On Canada, Mexico, and China bestowed,
With trade in a spin,
The markets begin,
To dance to a tune yet untold!”
Yesterday morning President Trump confirmed that 25% import tariffs on Canada and Mexico (with Canadian energy products enjoying a reduced 10% tariff) and an increased 10% tariff for China would indeed take effect from 4 March, as proposed. The news sent markets into a tailspin, with a weak close for US equities, lower Treasury yields, and the CAD and Mexican peso capturing the brunt of the FX reaction.
BNZ Markets Today
There is increased optimism in Europe after UK PM Starmer hosted European leaders at the weekend in a bid to support Ukraine. The UK and France said they would lead a European effort to forge a peace plan to present to President Trump. There was discussion of taking more responsibility for funding Europe’s defence. French President Macron proposed a one-month ceasefire “in the air, sea and on energy infrastructure”, but the word is that Europeans do not agree with this plan.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities staged a late-session rally on Friday to close 1.6% higher and edge back to positive returns for 2025. The market rebound was set against several macro cross currents including rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Ukraine, soft US consumption data and further developments on trade policy. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Mexico had proposed matching US tariffs on China and urged Canada to do the same. US treasuries rallied and the US dollar closed higher.
BNZ Markets Today
Equity markets are weaker and the USD is broadly stronger after Trump will impose an additional 10% tariff rate on Chinese imports next week and, after all, the proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico will also take effect. The NZD and AUD have underperformed, with spillover from a weaker yuan. The NZD is down 1% from this time yesterday to 0.5640.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light but in breaking news Trump said Canada and Mexico tariffs – proposed at 25% – would go into effect 2 April. This is yet another pushback, from the original 1 February start date that was subsequently pushed out to 4 March. The timing of 2 April would coincide with the proposed start date for a whole host of other tariffs, subject to the various trade reports that will land on Trump’s desk due 1 April. Trump also said tariffs on products from the EU like autos and “other things” will be 25%. Other details will be forthcoming.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment has weakened further, evident in price action across most markets. US equities are weaker for a fourth day, US Treasury yields have fallen to fresh 2025 lows, with the 10-year rate down some 10bps. JPY has outperformed and commodity currencies have underperformed, although falls have been modest, with the NZD tracking down towards 0.57.
BNZ Markets Today
After the selloff into the end of last week, US equity futures recovered in Asian trade, but the earlier rebound wasn’t sustained after a soft regional manufacturing survey. The S&P is little changed in afternoon trading. Stocks in Europe also declined with the Euro Stoxx index closing 0.7% lower. US treasuries rallied and the US dollar made gains against G10 currencies. Brent crude prices edged higher towards US$75 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities fell sharply, and treasuries rallied amid rising investor risk aversion, after weaker than expected activity in the services sector raised concerns that political uncertainty is weighing on growth. The S&P closed 1.7% lower. The US dollar was generally stronger against G10 currencies despite the weaker data. Oil prices fell with Brent trading back towards US$74 per barrel, 3% lower on the day.
BNZ Markets Today
US and European equity markets are weaker, retreating from recent record highs. The US S&P500 is down 0.7% in early afternoon trading, driven by financials and consumer discretionary stocks. Lower than expected revenue and earnings forecasts for the year ahead from consumer bellwether Walmart got the market’s attention as the company gave a cautious outlook. Management cited “stretched” consumer wallets and, ahead of tariffs, said “we are in an uncertain time”. Walmart’s stock price is down over 6% for the day. The Euro Stoxx 600 index fell 0.2%.