BNZ Markets Today
The rally in US equities after the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut has lost momentum following disappointing results from Oracle which weighed on technology shares. The Nasdaq has fallen close to 1% in afternoon trading and the S&P is also in negative territory. However, The Dow industrials index has bucked the trend, rising nearly 1% and hitting an intraday record above 48500. US treasury yields are modestly lower, and the US dollar has extended its post-FOMC decline. Copper prices reached a fresh record high and other industrial metals gained. Copper has rallied almost 35% this year with supply constrained by a series of mine disruptions.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest in the lead-up to the US Fed’s policy announcement due at 8am NZ time. Heading into the meeting, US equities are flat, US Treasury yields are trading at the bottom of their range for the day, and the USD is broadly weaker, although moves haven’t been significant.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest, with US equities slightly higher and little change in the US 10-year rate since the NZ close. Australian rates and the AUD increased after the RBA opened the door to tightening policy from early next year. NZD/AUD has nudged lower but NZD/USD traded at a fresh six-week high just under 0.58, while the yen continues to underperform.
BNZ Markets Today
Global rates are higher overnight, led by Europe after some hawkish commentary from the ECB’s Schnabel. Higher rates have dampened spirits for equity investors, with the S&P500 down 0.4% in early afternoon trading after meeting some resistance near October’s record high. The NZD is currently at 0.5775, after trading at a fresh six-week high overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
Net moves across risk sensitive assets were modest into the weekly close. The S&P traded up towards the late October record high above 6900 before paring its gains to end the session only marginally in positive territory. There was limited market reaction to the delayed release of the September PCE report. Global sovereign bond yields closed higher in yield, and the US dollar was stable against G10 currencies, except for the Canadian dollar, which gained after strong labour market data.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements continue to show only modest changes in the absence of a fresh narrative to drive big moves. US equities show little net change and global rates are mostly higher. Net currency moves have been modest and the NZD is flat, hovering around 0.5775.
BNZ Markets Today
A soft ADP employment print solidified market expectations for a Fed rate cut next week, but the net move in US Treasuries overnight has been small. US equities show a small gain. The USD continues its weaker run and the NZD has pushed up to monthly highs just over 0.5770.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets movements have been modest across equities, rates and currencies.
As US markets opened overnight, risk appetite was higher, with a strong recovery in bitcoin, which has sustained a lift of 6% to be back over USD91k. US equities opened stronger, with the more speculative areas outperforming, including IT stocks. In early afternoon trading the S&P500 is up 0.4%.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities have started the new month with a soft tone. S&P futures declined during Asian trade yesterday, amid a sharp selloff in cryptocurrencies, and the cash market is marginally lower in afternoon US trading. The US dollar slipped against major FX pairings while global bond markets are higher in yield. Oil prices gained after OPEC+ confirmed over the weekend that it will continue with plans to pause production hikes during the first quarter of next year. Silver prices extended higher and reached a fresh record above US$58 per ounce.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities made modest gains into month-end with investors having to contend with a technical issue at CME Group that disrupted futures trading including for stock indices, treasuries, gold and oil contracts. The S&P closed 0.5% higher on the day and ended a volatile month near unchanged. Little over a week ago, the index had been down close to 5%. Other global stock indices were also near flat. The US dollar was broadly stable against G10 currencies and treasury yields edged higher.
BNZ Markets Today
The overnight trading session has been quiet given the US Thanksgiving holiday, with little news or price action.
S&P500 futures are flat and the Euro Stoxx 60 index closed up just 0.1%. US 10-year Treasury futures have traded a tight range and are little changed from the NZ close. European rates show little movement. As the market fully digests the UK Budget, the 10-year UK gilt yield is up 3bps to 4.46%, reversing about half of the fall of the previous day.
BNZ Markets Today
There was limited economic data to provide the market with direction. Initial jobless claims fell slightly despite expectations for a modest increase. Core US durable orders for September beat the consensus estimate but the data is largely stale by this point. Treasury yields increased following the claims data, led by the front end of the curve, though moves were not large. 10-year yields have since retraced and are little changed at 4.01%.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been plenty of news overnight to digest. Oil prices are lower as a Ukraine-Russia peace deal looks closer than ever. US data released were soft and there was a report that Trump is most likely to select the most dovish candidate as the next Fed chair. The USD is broadly weaker and the 10-year rate has slipped below 4%. The NZD has pushed higher but has underperformed against EUR, GBP and JPY ahead of the RBNZ’s meeting today.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light. The only market movement of note has been an extension of Friday’s rally in US equities, with another solid gain to kick off the new week. Currencies and bonds show only small movements, and the NZD continues to languish just over 0.56.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities rebounded on Friday after a week characterised by erratic price action. The S&P closed 1% higher following comments from a top Federal Reserve official that raised expectations for a December rate cut. Investors remain cautious after the wild swings in equity markets in recent sessions. The S&P has its biggest intraday reversal on Thursday (3.6%) since the Liberation Day volatility in April. Despite the rebound on Friday, the index fell almost 2% last week and is down 3.5% so far this month. US treasuries rallied and the US dollar index was stable with mixed returns for G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities pared earlier gains and have shown a sharp, steady decline in the two hours leading up to the publication of this report. A lift in the US unemployment rate resulted in lower yields, with the shift in risk sentiment adding to that move. Commodity currencies have underperformed overnight, seeing the NZD fall back to just below 0.56.
BNZ Markets Today
The most notable market movement has been broad gains in the USD, driving the NZD below 0.56. US equities are flat ahead of Nvidia’s earnings announcement, while Treasuries continue to trade a tight range.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sensitive assets remained under pressure overnight after the weak Asian session yesterday. There is growing caution from investors ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and about the elevated valuations in the artificial intelligence sector. There are also concerns about the required capital expenditure which is reliant on issuing huge amounts of debt. The S&P is lower in afternoon trading and there have been large falls across European and Asian markets. The VIX index of implied S&P volatility, increased to 26, the highest level since the liberation day turmoil in April.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week has begun with small net changes in US equities and Treasuries and modest changes in currencies. The NZD trades this morning at 0.5670, up slightly overnight but down slightly from last week’s close.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities rebounded from sharp decline and closed near to flat. After a weak session the previous day, the S&P had initially fallen more than 1% before recovering. Investors have cited high valuations for technology firms and reduced expectations for easing by the Federal Reserve as headwinds for the equity market. The were heavy losses for European and Asian markets earlier in the day. US treasury yields increased while the US dollar was stable on the major crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
The end of the US government shutdown has been met with a decent fall in US equities and slightly higher US rates, as expectations for Fed easing fade. Despite that backdrop, the USD is broadly weaker. The NZD has pushed up to 0.5670 and NZD/AUD recovered all of its loss following the strong Australian labour market report, with the AUD underperforming overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest in the absence of any breaking news.
The end of the US government shutdown is imminent later today, when House lawmakers vote on a bill that has already been approved by the Senate and President Trump. There will be some delays in reopening over coming days so the economic hit will endure a little longer, before activity bounces back. By next week we might see the return of some official economic releases. The government will be funded through 30 January, while select agencies will be funded through the whole fiscal year. Some work will be required to avoid another shutdown in just over two months.
BNZ Markets Today
US equites are marginally lower in afternoon trading but have largely maintained the gain from the previous session on optimism the longest US government shutdown is coming to an end. Stocks in Europe extended higher. The Euro Stoxx index advanced more than 1%. Global bond yields are broadly lower, and gilts outperformed after softer than expected labour market data. The US dollar is broadly weaker against G10 currencies. Oil prices are higher with Brent crude trading above US$65 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment was underpinned at the start of the trading week amid expectations for deal that would end the longest ever US government shutdown. The US Senate took a step towards re-opening the government after a group of Democrats crossed party lines to endorse a compromise plan. The Senate will need vote on the deal, which is not currently scheduled, then the House will need to pass the bill, before President Trump signs it into law. The political developments provided a boost to global equities. The Euro Stoxx closed 1.8% higher and the S&P has gained 0.7% in afternoon trading while credit spreads have tightened.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P declined by close to 1.5% on Friday, before staging a recovery, after Senate Democrats scaled back their demands to end the government shutdown. Investor sentiment had been impacted by signs of weakness in the US labour market and falling consumer confidence. Technology stocks remain in focus amid concerns about high valuations. Major equity indices in Europe and Asia closed lower. Global bond markets were mixed while the US dollar was broadly weaker against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US Treasuries reversed the previous day’s selloff, with the market supported by some soft US labour market reports, with rates down about 5-8bps for the day. US equities are down 1%. The risk-off mood has seen the NZD and AUD underperform, both falling about 0.6% overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been a decent selloff in US Treasuries overnight following stronger than expected US economic data and the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement. The 5-7bps lift in yields hasn’t perturbed the US equity market, with a decent rebound after yesterday’s hefty loss. Currency markets show little response to higher US rates. The NZD is a touch stronger overnight and over the past 24 hours.
BNZ Markets Today
A risk-off tone has pervaded markets, driving down global equities and supporting bond markets. JPY has outperformed and the USD is broadly stronger, with the NZD probing a fresh seven-month of 0.5655 and Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since June, trading around the USD101k mark.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sensitive assets are little changed. The S&P is close to flat in afternoon trading and there was limited reaction to the manufacturing ISM which continues to point towards sluggish activity in the sector. Treasury yields are higher and the recent advance in the US dollar index has taken a breather. Oil prices were stable, following the weekend announcement that OPEC+ planned to pause output increases in the first quarter of 2026, after raising production in December. Brent crude is trading close to US$65 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended the month on a positive note. Earnings season remains in focus for investors. The vast majority of the 60% of S&P firms that have reported results so far have exceeded analyst estimates according to Bloomberg. The S&P closed 0.3% higher extending gains for October to 2.3%. Other global equity indices were mixed. The Nikkei surged 2% to a fresh record while European stocks closed lower. Price action in global bond markets was subdued, and the US dollar extended its recent move higher.
BNZ Markets Today
The rally in US equities has paused after investors reduced expectations for an interest-rate cut in December. This follows comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the FOMC yesterday that a cut at the next meeting was far from a done deal. The S&P is modestly lower in afternoon trade while the Euro Stoxx closed near flat. The dollar extended its post-FOMC rally, particularly against the yen, which weakened after the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady.
BNZ Markets Today
There were small net changes across global asset markets ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision this morning. US equity indices were marginally higher, and treasury yields increased 2-3bp across the curve. An initial advance for the US dollar index faded leaving major FX pairings little changed. Commodity currencies including the AUD and NZD made small gains, alongside the Canadian Dollar, with the Bank of Canada rate cut having little impact. Copper prices hit a record high in London amid optimism on US-China trade talks and challenging supply dynamics.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P has registered a fresh intra-day record high. Equities are supported by solid corporate earnings and a new deal from OpenAI and Microsoft which saw the latter company’s valuation reach US$4 trillion. Details have emerged about the potential US-China trade deal. Under the framework the US will roll back some tariffs if China reduces the exports of the chemicals that produce fentanyl.
BNZ Markets Today
US and Asian equity indices have reached fresh record highs, after encouraging signs from negotiations between the US and China, ahead of a leaders summit this week. Equities have been supported following benign US CPI data, which was released on Friday, and reinforced expectations for a 25bp rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets later this week. The US dollar is little changed and treasury yields are modestly higher. Gold prices fell below US$4,000 an ounce on diminished haven demand.
BNZ Markets Today
A surge in oil prices, after the US imposed additional sanctions on Russia, has contributed to higher treasury yields as the market looks ahead to CPI data this evening. The CPI report is the first major economic release since the government shutdown began. Risk sensitive assets are generally firmer. Equity indices in Asia and Europe closed higher and US equities are currently in positive territory. The AUD and NZD gained against the US dollar while moves in major currencies were modest.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sensitive assets have traded with a soft tone overnight. Outside of the FTSE, which gained after softer than expected UK CPI data, major equity indices have declined. Stocks in Asia fell and the Euro Stoxx closed 0.8% lower while US equity indices have registered losses in afternoon trading. Absolute moves across currency and rate markets have been small with limited economic data or other catalysts to prove direction. Oil prices sustained recent gains with Brent crude near US$62.70 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
The key market move overnight has been a slump in gold and silver prices following their explosive run higher. Global equity markets continue to push higher, with many bourses reaching new highs. Global rates are lower, with the US 10-year rate nudging down to 3.95%. Net currency moves have been modest apart from the yen weakening after Takaichi won the vote to become Japan’s PM.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light but the mood in equity markets have been positive, with investors shaking off the temporary bout of pessimism that pervaded late last week. The S&P500 is currently up over 1% and the Euro Stoxx 600 index closed 1% higher.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment turned positive on Friday from the European open, driving a modest gain for US equities and resulting in the US 10-year rate rising from a low of 3.93% to a NY close of 4.01%, up 7bps from the NZ close. Currency markets showed modest movements, with the NZD range trading and closing the week at 0.5725.
BNZ Markets Today
US equites are modestly weaker and US Treasury yields are lower, with risk sentiment weakening during the middle of the NY trading session. The 2-year Treasury rate is probing three-year lows while the 10-year rate has fallen below 4%. Currency movements have been modest, but commodity currencies have slightly underperformed overnight. The NZD trades at 0.5735 and NZD/AUD has sustained a lot of the gain seen in the wake of yesterday’s softer Australian employment report.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light. US equities are up slightly, paring strong gains after the open. The US 10-year rate took another peak below 4% but yields are now modestly higher. Currency movements have been modest and the NZD is down a touch around 0.5710.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a rollercoaster ride for markets with a big swing in the USD and US equities, reflecting gyrations in risk sentiment. US equities show a modest gain, recovering from a sharp loss. A stronger USD from yesterday afternoon drove down the NZD to a fresh six-month low below 0.57 before recovering. The US 10-year rate dipped below 4% overnight and currently trades at 4.03%.
BNZ Markets Today
Cooler heads are prevailing after the US-China trade war escalated on Friday, and this has contributed to some recovery in risk assets. US equities have recovered more than half of Friday’s loss and the AUD is the best major FX performer after being the worst performer on Friday. The NZD shows a small gain. The US bond market is closed for the Columbus Day holiday, but the futures market shows a small lift in yields.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment took a major dive during the overnight Friday trading session as the US-China trade détente abruptly ended. US equities tumbled, alongside a strong rally in US Treasuries that sent the 10-year rate towards 4%. FX safe-havens JPY and CHF outperformed, while the AUD was whacked the hardest. The NZD fell to around 0.5720 and was weaker on the key crosses apart from a decent bounce in NZD/AUD to 0.8835. Oil prices tumbled while gold recovered back above USD4000. US-China trade war escalation sets the scene for some volatile trading conditions through the rest of the month.
BNZ Markets Today
Without any obvious triggers, it has been a bad night for investors, with lower US and European equities, higher global rates and even gold prices are notably weaker. The USD is broadly stronger, and the NZD has fallen 1% from the NZ close to 0.5740.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light again. US equities have recovered after their one-day dip and US Treasury yields show small movements. Overnight, the NZD is the best performing currency we closely follow, recovering a lot of its loss seen after the RBNZ’s dovish 50bps cut yesterday, trading around 0.5780.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities have broken a winning streak and are modestly weaker overnight. Weaker risk sentiment has supported Treasuries, with the 10-year rate down 4bps to 4.11%. The USD is broadly stronger and the yen remains under pressure. NZD has weakened towards 0.58. All eyes will be on the RBNZ policy update today, with the market split between views of a 25 or 50bps rate cut.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been no economic news, but plenty of political news to keep the market on edge, including significant moves in Japan’s equities, bonds and currency following the shock selection of the new LDP leader. Overnight, France was inflicted with more political turmoil. The US government remains in shutdown mode. NZ is a beacon of stability by comparison, with the NZD trading at its high for the day around 0.5840, and gains on most crosses, including a 2% surge in NZD/JPY.
BNZ Markets Today
Last week ended on an uneventful note, not helped by the US government shutdown that resulted in delay in publishing the key US employment reports. US equities were little changed, and US Treasury yields pushed higher, partially reversing the fall in rates earlier in the week. The USD was broadly weaker in overnight trading, but moves were modest. The NZD pushed a little higher, closing the week around 0.5830.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light and markets show only modest movements amidst a US government shutdown. US equities show little change and US Treasuries have traded narrow ranges, with a small flattening bias. The USD is slightly stronger overnight. The NZD has traded a narrow range and is currently 0.5820. Oil prices are lower for a fourth consecutive day.
BNZ Markets Today
After a soft tone for risk sentiment in Asia, as the US government shutdown took effect, the S&P has recovered from an initial dip on open to be little changed. European equity indices registered solid gains. A weaker than expected ADP private payrolls reading was consistent with other data indicating the labour market is slowing and contributed to lower bond yields. The US dollar was mixed against G10 currencies and oil prices extended the recent decline. Brent crude traded towards US$65 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are little changed overnight, with hopes for a last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown fading, which would create uncertainty and delay the publication of key economic releases. The S&P wasn’t impacted by weaker-than-expected consumer-confidence data and oscillated in a narrow range. Oil prices extended the recent decline on concerns about increased OPEC+ supply - Brent crude traded towards US$67 per barrel. There was limited movement across government bond markets, and the US dollar is modestly weaker.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities retraced from earlier gains amid concerns about the risk of a US government slowdown. Prediction markets are implying a 70% chance of shutdown which could delay the publication of key economic data. This includes the September labour market report, which is scheduled for the end of the week, creating uncertainty for investors. These fears contributed to lower treasury yields. There was divergent price action in commodity markets with gold extending higher while oil prices fell on supply concerns. The S&P retraced from earlier gains and is 0.2% higher in afternoon trading.
BNZ Markets Today
After declining for three consecutive session, US equities rebounded into the end of last week with data pointing to resilience in the US economy. The market looked past President Trump’s announcement of fresh industry-focused tariffs, including a 100% duty on patented pharmaceuticals. The S&P closed 0.6% higher. Major European indices made solid gains with the Euro Stoxx index advancing 1%. Sovereign bond markets were little changed, and the US dollar was modestly weaker.
BNZ Markets Today
Stronger than expected US economic data overnight drove higher US rates, as the market pared scope for easier monetary policy, and broad gains in the USD. US equities are weaker for the third successive day. The NZD lurched below technical support of 0.58 while NZD cross movements have been contained.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets have traded with a more cautious tone overnight without any obvious driver, seeing modest falls in US equities and modestly higher US Treasury yields. The USD is broadly stronger and the NZD has underperformed, heading down towards support at 0.58 and with fresh multi-year lows on NZD/AUD and NZD/EUR crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets were largely stable overnight with Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s first speech since the FOMC last week providing few fresh clues on the outlook for monetary policy. Major US stock indices are lower and consolidating after the recent run up to record highs. The Euro Stoxx gained 0.6% while major Asian indices were mixed. Global government bond markets were little changed overall while the US dollar was softer at the margin against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities and gold have powered up to fresh record highs in the wake of the Fed restarting the easing cycle last week. Fed speakers have been doing the rounds, with the turn of the more hawkish FOMC members overnight and, coincidentally or not, US Treasuries have traded with a cautious tone, with rates nudging higher. European currencies have outperformed, and the NZD is a touch stronger.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities closed last week near record highs with sentiment aided by the prospect of further easing by the US Federal Reserve. The S&P ended the session 0.5% higher. Major stock indices were flat in Europe and the Nikkei declined after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) indicated plans to reduce its equity portfolio. The positive sentiment towards risk sensitive assets extended to credit markets where US high-grade spreads over treasuries reached 72bp, a fresh 27-year low.
BNZ Markets Today
In the aftermath of the US Fed’s rate cut yesterday, US equities are probing fresh record highs. For US Treasuries and the USD, it has been a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact, with yields extending higher and the USD making further broad gains, supported by stronger US data. The NZD has extended losses overnight, following the softer than expected GDP print yesterday, trading below 0.59.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets were largely in a holding pattern in the run up to the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision this morning. US equities and European equities were little changed, while treasury yields were higher, driven by the front end of the curve. Currency markets were stable. The US Dollar index remained above the multi-year low from early July having approached this level in recent sessions. There was limited currency market impact from UK inflation data and the Bank of Canada rate cut.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets continue to prepare for a dovish Fed policy update in less than 24 hours, with US Treasury yields edging lower and a broadly weaker USD, despite stronger than expected US retail sales. The euro has been a key beneficiary, rising to a four-year high, while the NZD has edged up towards 0.60.
BNZ Markets Today
Ahead of the Fed’s near-certain rate cut later this week, markets appear to already be factoring in the restarting of an easing cycle, with US equities rising to a fresh record high, alongside a modest fall in US Treasury yields and a broadly weaker USD.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P ended flat on Friday with the index consolidating near all-time highs after a solid week of gains. European markets were also little changed while stocks in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan closed at record levels. Weaker than expected US consumer confidence data did little to alter expectations for the FOMC this week. Government bonds are higher in yield with the largest moves seen in European markets. Currency markets were quiet. Oil prices were steady as US threats to sanction Russian crude didn’t materialise. Gold remained near a record high with prices holding close to $3,650 a troy ounce.