BNZ Markets Today
Weaker than expected US labour market data contributed to volatility across financial markets on Friday night. Growth sensitive assets traded lower with large falls across global equities. The S&P fell 1.7%, extending its weekly decline to 4.3%, the largest since March last year. US treasury yields whipsawed but ultimately ended lower in yield. The US dollar index made modest gains. Oil remained soft – Brent crude traded below US$71 per barrel – which is the lowest level in eighteen months.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets remain soft with the S&P modestly lower in afternoon trade, and facing its third consecutive daily loss, as investors look ahead to the key US payrolls data later this evening. European equities fell – the Euro Stoxx declined 0.7%. Treasury yields are modestly lower in choppy trade and the US dollar is weaker against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Further signs of cooling in the US labour market contributed to lower yields across bond markets and global equities remained soft after the sharp decline in the previous session. The S&P opened lower and is currently close to flat. Equities fell in Europe – the Euro Stoxx closed 1.3% lower – and Asian stocks also declined with the Nikkei falling 4%. The US dollar fell with the move concentrated against the yen. Brent crude traded below US$73 per barrel to fresh lows for the year. It was reported that OPEC+ members are close to agreement to delay a planned production increase amid weak global demand and increased supply.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets came under pressure as US investors returned from the long weekend. The S&P fell more than 1.5%, the largest fall since the volatile period at the beginning of August. US equities extended their decline after a soft manufacturing ISM report. Equities in Europe also fell declined amid the rising risk aversion with the Euro Stoxx falling more than 1%. Global bond markets rallied, and the US dollar was broadly stronger.
BNZ Markets Today
Asset markets were confined to narrow ranges with limited economic data and the Labor Day holiday in the US weighing on market activity. European equities made modest gains with the Euro Stoxx index advancing 0.3%. US S&P futures are little changed since the open yesterday and have maintained the gains from the sharp rally into month end at the end of last week. Asian stocks declined reacting to the lacklustre Chinese PMIs released in the weekend with the Hang Seng losing 1.7%. European bonds moved higher in yield while the US dollar was mixed against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
After a volatile beginning to the month, the S&P gained 2% in August. The index rebounded from an earlier dip on Friday, to close 1% higher, supported by benign US inflation data. The Euro Stoxx was little changed while Asian equities ended higher. Chinese property stocks were underpinned by news that policy makers are considering allowing homeowners to refinance as much as US$5.4 trillion in mortgages. Global bonds ended higher in yield and the US dollar advanced. Oil prices fell sharply after it was reported that OPEC+ plans to proceed with previously announced output hikes in coming months.
BNZ Markets Today
US Treasury yields are slightly higher after an upward revision to US GDP, driven by consumer spending, and this has helped support the USD, with added support as EUR weakened following weaker German CPI inflation. Most US equities are higher, with a fall of 6% for Nvidia a drag on the S&P500. A stronger ANZ business outlook survey supported the NZD yesterday although it has slipped modestly overnight to 0.6260.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow remains light. US equities have edged higher, US Treasury yields show small movements but a clear curve steepening bias, and the US is broadly weaker. The NZD is probing a fresh seven-month high just over 0.6250 and is up for the day on the key crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets are consolidating following the initial excitement following Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech at the end of last week. US equities are down modestly, US Treasuries show small changes, and the USD is slightly stronger. The NZD has given up some of its big gain last week and has settled just over the 0.62 mark. Oil prices surged 3% due to Libya domestic issues rather than rising geopolitical risk.
BNZ Markets Today
Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday was much anticipated and his nod to commencing interest rate cuts from September and protecting the labour market were music to the ears of investors. Risk appetite increased, with US equities up over 1%, Treasury yields fell led by the short end, the USD was broadly weaker and commodity currencies outperformed as commodity prices rose. The NZD ended the week just over 0.6230, its highest level since January and it was higher on all the key crosses. The new week begins with increased tension in the Middle East after Israel and Lebanon exchanged missile attacks.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been a reversal of recent price action, with US equities weaker, higher rates and a stronger USD. Behind the moves one could point to data suggesting no need for the Fed to panic, Fed speakers arguing for gradualism, and a return of the Trump trade in anticipation of Robert F. Kennedy dropping out of the race and endorsing Trump. After an overnight high around 0.6170, the NZD is trading near 0.6140 while the DXY index is up 0.5% for the day.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets are generally higher with limited economic data or other catalysts to provide direction. The S&P is up 0.3% consolidating its recent strong gains, as market looks ahead to speech by Fed chair Jay Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday night, when he is expected to provide guidance on the path for US interest rates. Bond yields fell following a large downward annual revision to US payrolls. The US dollar continued its recent decline and is broadly weaker against G10 currencies. Brent crude prices fell to US$76 per barrel, close to the lows for the year.
BNZ Markets Today
Against of backdrop of little newsflow, US equities are flat. US Treasury yields are down 5-6bps and the USD is again broadly weaker, taking the DXY index down to fresh lows for the year. The yen is the strongest of the majors while the NZD has recovered further to just over 0.6150.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been little newsflow to get in the way of further recovery in global equity markets. The next focus for investors is the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium at the end of the week. The Treasuries curve has flattened slightly, with the 10-year rate down to 3.86%. The USD is broadly weaker, with the NZD showing a steady climb up through 0.61.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities rebounded from an initial dip, to advance for the seventh consecutive day, as investor sentiment continued to recover from the volatility at the beginning of the month. The S&P closed 0.2% higher extending its gains for the week to 4%. US treasury yields ended the session modestly lower in yield and the US dollar fell against developed market currencies. Gold traded to a fresh all-time high, reaching $2,500 per troy ounce for the first time, as investors look ahead to lower interest rates.
BNZ Markets Today
Stronger than expected US retail sales and jobless claims data helped dispel concerns the economy was entering a deeper slowdown and sent equities, treasury yields and the US dollar higher. The S&P gained 1.5%, extending its weekly advance to almost 4%. There were solid gains in European equities as well with the Euro Stoxx closing 1.7% higher on the day.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets had a muted response to key US inflation data, after a brief spell of volatility, around the release. Equities closed higher in Europe, with the Euro Stoxx advancing 0.7%, but US markets are little changed in afternoon trade. Global currency and bond markets were similarly subdued.
BNZ Markets Today
A benign US PPI print got the market’s attention and helped drive lower US rates, a lower USD and higher US equities. Against broad-based weakness in the USD, the NZD has outperformed, steadily rising to 0.6075 and higher on the crosses. At yesterday’s close, the market was pricing 17bps worth of cuts for today’s RBNZ MPS. Significant rate cuts are likely to be projected by the RBNZ, as in May, the only lingering doubt being whether the Bank is willing to pull the trigger today.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to a busy week, with US equities flat, US Treasury yields slightly lower and modest changes in major currencies. The NZD has outperformed, rising 0.3% to 0.6020 and gaining on all the key crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
It was an uneventful end to the trading week on Friday, with US equity markets recovering further with a modest gain while the US Treasuries curve flattened, driven by a 5bps fall in the 10-year rate to 3.94%. Currency movements were modest, with the NZD and AUD falling into the weekly close, to around 0.60 and 0.6570 respectively.
BNZ Markets Today
A larger than expected fall in US initial jobless claims allayed fears of a pending US recession, sending US equities much higher and US Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year rate returning to a 4% handle. Hawkish RBA comments supported the AUD. NZ inflation expectations data supported the already-strong case for easier monetary policy and the NZD has managed hold 0.60 despite lower short-rates, with the backdrop of higher risk appetite providing some support.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk appetite recovered further, although in the past few hours the VIX index has been tracking higher and early US equities gains have morphed into losses. US Treasury yields have pushed higher and the NZD has outperformed, sustaining most of the gain seen after yesterday’s labour market data.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk appetite returned to the market, with global equities rebounding, US Treasury yields higher, the yen falling and commodity currencies outperforming. There has been no particular trigger other than investors deciding that the sharp moves over previous days were overdone. The NZD has settled around 0.5960 while NZD/AUD weakened after a more hawkish than expected update by the RBA.
BNZ Markets Today
Investor risk aversion continued to rise at the start of the trading week with large falls across global equity markets and other growth sensitive assets which contributed to safe haven flows into US treasuries. Asian stocks plunged with the Nikkei falling a further 12%, taking its decline over the past three trading sessions to almost 20%. Stocks fell across Europe and North America. The S&P, which was down more than 4% at one point managed to pare some of its losses but is still down 2.8% in afternoon trading.
BNZ Markets Today
The risk off tone in the Asian session intensified into the weekly close following soft US labour market data. Global equities remained under pressure with the S&P closing almost 2% lower. The VIX index of expected volatility for the S&P rose to an intraday high of 29.5, just below the levels from March 2023 when the US regional banking stress hit a peak. US treasuries extended the move lower in yield as market participants increased expectations for easing by the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar declined despite weak risk sentiment and oil prices fell sharply.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk appetite fell after weaker than expected US economic data on the labour market and manufacturing sector. US equities have fallen significantly, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4%. The NZD shows little net change around 0.5950 but has fallen from an overnight high near 0.5980. GBP is the weakest of the majors after the BoE kicked off an easing cycle.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets have had a plethora of economic data and risk events to digest in the past 24 hours headlined by the FOMC. The US Federal Reserve left rates on hold, as was unanimously expected, but signalled it is getting closer to lowering policy rates. Global equity markets advanced led by technology stocks. The S&P is up almost 2% with equities in Europe and Asia also registering strong gains.
BNZ Markets Today
Lower tech stocks have driven US equities down (again) while US Treasury yields are modestly lower, ignoring slightly stronger than expected US JOLTs data and consumer confidence. JPY strengthened after a media report that the BoJ will consider a 15bps hike at today’s meeting. The NZD has outperformed alongside the yen, seeing it return to 0.59.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light and market movements have been well contained at the start of a busy week. US equities are flat, global rates are down slightly and the USD is slightly stronger, with the NZD probing fresh multi-month lows below 0.5860.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equities advanced into the end of last week. The S&P closed more than 1% higher providing a contrast with previous trading sessions where weak earnings from tech companies contributed to the largest drawdown since April. European equities also registered solid gains - the Euro Stoxx closed 1% higher. Market sentiment was underpinned by US inflation data, which was in line with consensus expectations and supports the case for the Fed easing cycle to begin in September. US treasuries moved lower in yield and currency markets were subdued.
BNZ Markets Today
Stronger than expected US GDP data supported the soft-landing narrative, and US equities have consolidated after yesterday's tumble. US Treasury yields reversed course, with downward pressure earlier in the session, giving way to higher rates, with the result being small net movement. Currency markets have remained erratic, with the yen swinging around and NZD and AUD continuing to underperform and trading at fresh lows.
BNZ Markets Today
US stocks have tumbled, led by the mega cap and IT stocks, seeing the Nasdaq index down 3½%, and the S&P500 down about 2%. However, it doesn’t seem like a classic risk-off event, with the US 10-year rate up slightly but the curve has steepened significantly, with the 2-year rate down 8bps, supported by a call by ex-FOMC member Dudley for the Fed to cut rates from next week. The yen continues to outperform, while the NZD recovered slightly overnight after falling further through the NZ trading session.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been an uneventful trading day, with little newsflow to drive markets. US equities are flat and US Treasury yields are slightly lower. Of note is that lower commodity prices continue to drag down the NZD and AUD, while the yen remains flavour of the week. The NZD is probing the 0.5950 level.
BNZ Markets Today
been muted, with only small changes in the USD and Treasury yields. US equities have rebounded, recovering from last week’s hiccup, driven by the tech sector. The AUD and NZD have underperformed on China concerns and falling industrial commodity prices. The NZD has made a clear break below 0.60, while NZD/AUD is up slightly, back to 0.90.
BNZ Markets Today
Financial markets ended last week on a soft note, with weaker global equity markets, higher global rates and lower commodity prices. Volumes were light, as trading activity was restricted by the global IT outage that affected Microsoft Windows systems. Against a backdrop of weaker risk appetite, the USD was broadly stronger, and the NZD closed the week at a two-month low around 0.6010.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets dropped for the second consecutive session. There were limited catalysts with only second-tier economic data. The S&P is down 0.6% in early afternoon trading with the Euro Stoxx registering a similar decline. Equities are beginning to price in more political risk – the VIX has climbed to the highest level since April. Global bond markets yields were little changed, and the US dollar traded higher against G10 currencies, partially retracing the decline from the previous day.
BNZ Markets Today
Technology stocks led declines in global equities amid concerns about tighter restrictions from the US government on advanced semiconductor exports to China. The Nasdaq is down almost 2.5% while the S&P has fallen 1.4% in early afternoon trade. Equities also closed lower across Europe. The US dollar fell against developed market currencies while global bond markets are little changed.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities advanced following strong retail sales data. The S&P is up 0.4% in afternoon trading. There has been a significant rotation towards small capitalisation stocks in recent sessions. The Russell 2000 index has increased 10%, easily beating the 1.5% gain in the S&P, as investors look ahead to rate cuts by the Fed, which benefit smaller companies with typically higher debt levels. Treasuries are lower in yield with the curve flattening. The US dollar is little changed, after gains following the data faded.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities remained well underpinned with the S&P gaining 0.3% as investors look ahead to a busy week of corporate earnings. European equities ended lower. Major regional indices fell, and the Euro Stoxx dropped 1.2%. There was only second-tier economic data. Currency markets were generally confined to narrow ranges while US treasury yields are higher.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equities remained well supported into the weekly close. The S&P traded to another intra-day record high, but lost ground late in the session, to close 0.6% higher. Large banking stocks underperformed after reporting disappointing results. A macro factor to note is banks are putting aside additional reserves, to cover deteriorating loans, which points towards pressure on consumers. European stocks had a strong session – the Euro Stoxx gained 1.3%. Treasuries looked past unexpectedly strong PPI data and closed lower in yield while the US dollar fell against developed market currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Another benign US CPI print drove a sharp rally in US Treasury yields, with rates down 9-12bps. USD weakness after the report wasn’t fully sustained and most net currency movements have been modest, an exception being a plunge in USD/JPY with official intervention suspected. The NZD is trading close to 0.61. There has been a significant rotation in US equities, with most stocks higher but the S&P500 currently down 0.8%.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets made solid gains with the S&P gaining more than 0.5% to trade above 5,600 to yet another record high. European stocks rebounded from the previous session dip. Major regional indices closed higher, and the Euro Stoxx advanced more than 1%. There was no economic data of note overnight. US treasuries are marginally lower in yield and currency markets were subdued for the most part as investors look ahead to key US CPI data this evening.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of key US CPI data later this week and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to lawmakers, where he largely repeated previous messages, didn’t move the needle. US equities, Treasuries and currency markets show only small net movements. There has been more action in Europe, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index down 0.9%, led by France, and French-German bond spreads widened. The domestic focus today will be on the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Review where the market looks positioned for a more dovish message than provided in May.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been well-contained to start the week, with little impact from the shock French election result on Sunday. Key equity markets show modest changes and US Treasury yields are little changed. The NZD has underperformed and is modestly weaker, trading around 0.6130.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P advanced to fresh all-time high after softer than expected US labour market data led to investors bringing forward expectations for Fed rate cuts. The S&P closed 0.5% higher extending the year-to-date gains to 17%. European equities closed lower as the market looked ahead to the second round of the French election. Early projections suggest the left wing coalition, New Popular Front, has unexpectedly won the most seats which will raise concerns about the fiscal backdrop. Treasury yields fell across the curve and the US dollar closed the week modestly weaker against the majority of G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
There was subdued market activity overnight with US cash markets closed for the Independence Day holiday. US equity futures are unchanged. European equities advanced. The Euro Stoxx index was up 0.4% and has retraced more than 50% of the decline in June, as investors look ahead to the second round of the French legislative election on Sunday. The Nikkei traded highs and closed just below the all-time high set back in March.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P powered to a fresh record high close, in a shortened trading session, ahead of the July 4 US holiday. A series of weaker than expected economic prints, headlined by services ISM, strengthened the case for Fed rate cuts this year. European equities also had a strong session with the Euro Stoxx gaining more than 1%. Global bond yields fell led by a rally in treasuries and the US dollar made broad based losses against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets eked out modest gains in a continuation of the recent narrow trading ranges as the market consolidates the strong rally in June. The S&P is up 0.4% in early afternoon trading, and recovered off the session lows, after Fed Chair Powell made comments that disinflation appears to be resuming. European equities closed lower with the Euro Stoxx falling 0.5%. Global bond markets are marginally lower in the yield.
BNZ Markets Today
US treasury yields moved higher despite the manufacturing ISM coming in below expectations. The S&P lacked strong directional bias and continued to consolidate above 5,500, just below the record highs. Risk premia on European assets reduced on indications that the far-right victory in the French election was less decisive than some had expected.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets ended the last trading session for the quarter marginally lower. An initial rally for the S&P, which gained close to 1% and reached an intra-day record high, faded and the index closed 0.4% lower. European stocks also declined modestly with investor sentiment impacted by ahead of France’s legislative elections. US treasury yields ended higher, after a temporary dip following benign inflation data.
BNZ Markets Today
In contrast to the dull market conditions earlier this week, there has been a bit more price action to talk about. USD/JPY marched up through 160 with ease, to a fresh 38-year high, raising the chance of forthcoming yen intervention. The PBoC continues to allow a slightly softer yuan, while the AUD outperformed after a strong monthly CPI print that caught the market off guard. Against a backdrop of broad USD strength, the NZD has fallen to just below 0.6080, underperforming on NZD/AUD cross selling pressure.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements continue to be well contained. US equities are up modestly, US Treasuries yields are up slightly and the USD index is slightly stronger. Canadian inflation figures positively surprised, but this had more sustained impact on rates than the CAD. The NZD has traded a tight range and is down slightly to 0.6120.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to the week in what could be a quiet week overall. Market movements have been well-contained. The S&P500 is down slightly, US Treasury yields show little net change and the USD is broadly weaker, with the NZD slightly higher around 0.6130. Oil prices continue to push higher.
BNZ Markets Today
Softer than expected preliminary PMI data across Europe set the tone for markets into the weekly close. European equities underperformed with Euro Stoxx falling 0.8%, partially reversing gains from earlier last week, as the risk premium related to the fiscal backdrop in France stabilised. The S&P ended a largely directionless session marginally lower. The US dollar advanced against G10 currencies and global bonds were little changed, rebounding from an earlier move lower in yields.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been plenty of news to digest but market movements have been well-contained. A string of softer US data releases didn’t perturb the market, with US equities flat, US Treasury yields slightly higher and the USD broadly stronger. The BoE opened the door for a first rate cut this cycle in August while the Swiss National Bank cut rates again. NZ rates rose yesterday after NZ GDP showed a small increase and against a backdrop of higher global rates. The NZD is around 0.6125 while a weaker yen has pushed up NZD/JPY to fresh highs.
BNZ Markets Today
Global markets were confined to narrow ranges with the US observing a public holiday. US equity, bonds, and most commodity markets were closed. European equities traded lower with the Euro Stoxx falling 0.6%. The Hang Seng had a strong session and advanced nearly 3%. The move was attributed to further market-friendly reforms such as allowing Chinese investors to buy Hong Kong stocks using the yuan. Currency markets were subdued, and European bond yields ended marginally higher in yield.
BNZ Markets Today
A weaker than expected US retail sales report supported US Treasuries, dragging the 10-year rate down to as low as 4.20% and pushed down the USD, reversing earlier strength. The AUD has outperformed after a more hawkish than expected RBA update. The NZD recovered to 0.6140 after a test of 0.61, while NZD/AUD is modestly weaker at 0.9230.
BNZ Markets Today
European markets have settled after last week’s selloff, with French assets recovering somewhat. US equities have continued their record-breaking run while, after last week’s strong rally, US Treasury yields are modestly higher. Currency movements have been small, with the NZD giving up a little of last week’s gain and the euro being the best performer, albeit up only 0.3%.
BNZ Markets Today
A risk off tone dominated global markets into the end of last week as concern about the political crisis in France deepened. European equities were under pressure with the Euro Stoxx falling 2% and the spread between French and German 10-year bonds increased to 77bps, the widest level in more than 10 years. The impact on US equities was more muted with the S&P recovering from an early session dip to close unchanged. Global bond yields declined, and the dollar was broadly stronger.
BNZ Markets Today
Much softer than expected US PPI data and a further increase in jobless claims supported US Treasuries, taking yields down 7-8bps across the curve. Concerns around France remain the focus in Europe and with spillover impact for currency markets, with the NZD stuck near 0.6170 despite the weaker US data. NZD/EUR rises to its highest level since early January.
BNZ Markets Today
Softer than expected US CPI data contributed to large moves across global markets ahead of the FOMC. Bond yields fell sharply as investors increased the amount of easing expected by the Fed this year. The US dollar declined. Equity markets advanced with the S&P making a fresh all-time high. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates unchanged as expected. The Fed’s forecasts signalled one 25bps rate this year, down from 75bps in March.