Markets yippy in April
• Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy and attack on Fed Chair Powell kicked off some significant market volatility and a “sell America” trade
• Some walk back on these reversed the market reaction, resulting in modest net moves for equities and the US 10-year rate in April
• However, broad USD weakness was largely sustained; NZD/USD traded a wide 5½ cents range and closed up 4½%
A muddling March on tariff threats
• Rising US tariffs, and threats of more to come, drove weaker risk appetite and global equity markets
• The USD was broadly weaker, with growth concerns outweighing its usual safe-haven characteristics; NZD/USD up 1½%
• EUR was a star performer, fuelled by looser fiscal rules; the NZD fell to multi-year lows vs EUR and GBP
NZD falls in February as Trump teases on tariffs
• February was peppered with various threats by Trump to raise import tariffs, with the only ones enacted being those for China
• Heightened policy uncertainty overhung the market, while weaker US data and lower US rates were a drag on the USD
• Still, the yuan weakened, and the NZD underperformed; NZD/USD fell 0.7% and the NZD was weaker on the major crosses
January jitters as Trump threatens tariffs
• Currency markets were jumpy in January, reacting to Trump’s soundbites on tariffs, but without any material reaction overall.
• NZD/USD recovered from a nearly 12% plunge in Q4 to show some signs of stability through January and a modest net gain.
• The NZD was up on most crosses; net moves in global rates were modest; global equity markets reached a fresh record high.