Currencies consolidate in May
• The de-escalation of the US-China trade war resulted in much calmer market conditions in May, compared to April’s turmoil
• Net major currency movements were modest, even if the USD was broadly weaker again. NZD/USD rose ½%
• Higher risk appetite and more focus on US fiscal policy saw upside pressure on global rates
Markets yippy in April
• Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy and attack on Fed Chair Powell kicked off some significant market volatility and a “sell America” trade
• Some walk back on these reversed the market reaction, resulting in modest net moves for equities and the US 10-year rate in April
• However, broad USD weakness was largely sustained; NZD/USD traded a wide 5½ cents range and closed up 4½%
A muddling March on tariff threats
• Rising US tariffs, and threats of more to come, drove weaker risk appetite and global equity markets
• The USD was broadly weaker, with growth concerns outweighing its usual safe-haven characteristics; NZD/USD up 1½%
• EUR was a star performer, fuelled by looser fiscal rules; the NZD fell to multi-year lows vs EUR and GBP