Currency Research

NZD Corporate FX Update

Jason Wong -

The NZD’s expected recovery is running ahead of schedule, and we lift our year-end target to 0.65

Full Currency Research is available to BNZ Wholesale clients upon request, please email bnz_research@bnz.co.nz to subscribe.

USD under pressure

Jason Wong -

The USD has been under considerable pressure for most of this year, peaking before the middle of January and falling between 7-9% depending on which index is used. Of the global majors, SEK, CHF and JPY have gained around 10% or more, EUR, GBP and NOK have gained 6-9% and the commodity currencies AUD, CAD and NZD have gained 2-6%.

Full Currency Research is available to BNZ Wholesale clients upon request, please email bnz_research@bnz.co.nz to subscribe.

Tariff Turmoil

Jason Wong -

Since President Trump was elected in November, our central FX projections have been predicated on a moderate Trump II scenario playing out. This assumed a phasing in of higher tariffs but not to the full extent threatened pre-election. We had assumed increased tariffs on China but well short of the mooted 60%, and mostly 10% tariffs on imports from other countries (likely with various carve outs), which culminated in about a 10% increase in the average tariff rate applied to all US imports (from the prevailing average of 2.4%).