Iran Conflict and the NZD
• The Iran conflict is a major geopolitical event and should not be under-estimated
• Market reaction to date on equities, oil, currencies assumes an optimistic outcome
• Every day the Strait of Hormuz is closed for shipping, the global shock potential increases
• Even if the war is “won”, Iranian militants can indefinitely cause havoc
• Still too soon to be ripping up forecasts, but the balance of risk is heavily skewed to the downside for risk assets like the NZD
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NZD Corporate FX Update
In our last report at the end of January, we held back from upgrading our NZD projections, even as the currency surged past our end-Q1 target of 0.60. We anticipated a period of consolidation, which indeed played out through February. March began with significant conflict in the Middle East, causing the NZD to retreat.
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NZD Corporate FX Update
The NZD experienced a strong turnaround from late November, with only a brief interruption in late December and early January, before resuming its upward trend to reach a six-month high above 0.60. This rally has been driven by both global and domestic factors.
Full Currency Research is available to BNZ Wholesale clients upon request, please email bnz_research@bnz.co.nz to subscribe.