NZD/AUD: Near The Top Of The Range?
The cross is above our short-term and long term valuation estimates near 0.94 and 0.91 respectively.
We see the cross rate as being near the top of its historical trading range. While there’s a chance that a fresh high is made in the near-term – the coronavirus being a new factor to consider – through the year we see risks more skewed towards the downside.
Our forecasts are anchored at 0.94-0.96 through 2020. It would be prudent for importers to take cover at 0.96 and higher, while exporters can afford to wait for more attractive levels to add to cover.
Full Currency Research is available to BNZ Wholesale clients upon request, please email bnz_research@bnz.co.nz to subscribe.
NZD Corporate FX Update
Our NZD projections are consistent with the low volatility environment continuing. Near-term consolidation gives way to an upward bias later in the year.
Full Currency Research is available to BNZ Wholesale clients upon request, please email bnz_research@bnz.co.nz to subscribe.
Six questions for the NZD in 2020
With a new year underway, we try to answer some key questions which will determine the path of the NZD this year. They are:
- Will a better global economy drive the NZD?
- Have NZ’s commodity prices or terms of trade peaked?
- Will the NZD continue to track CNY?
- Will interest rates drive the NZD?
- Will NZD volatility remain low?
- Will the USD finally weaken materially?
Full Currency Research is available to BNZ Wholesale clients upon request, please email bnz_research@bnz.co.nz to subscribe.
NZD: The upswing begins?
Six weeks ago we became more positive on the NZD and questioned whether a sustained recovery was imminent (see “NZD: The makings of a recovery?”, 22 October 2019). We’ve been patient, and last night the NZD broke higher, out of the 0.62-0.6450 trading range evident since early August. Is this the beginning of the awaited upswing?
NZD Corporate FX Update
We upgrade our NZD forecasts, now seeing it drift higher, rather than lower, and anchored around 0.65 through to the middle of next year.