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Economic commentary

Weekly Overview

Learn more about the housing market, interest rates, and foreign economies in Tony Alexander's weekly overview. This weekly publication is designed to help Kiwi business people and householders make informed financial decisions. Read the latest weekly overview – or catch up on last week's.

Read the latest weekly overview

Confidence Survey

Will the economy will get better, worse or stay the same over the next 12 months? Each month, our Chief Economist, Tony Alexander, asks this question to subscribers of his weekly overview. Read Tony's summary of their responses in the latest Confidence Survey – or download a past issue.

Read this month's confidence survey

BNZ Markets Outlook

Get the latest news on the New Zealand economy and global markets in our weekly BNZ Markets Outlook. Each issue covers a range of topics, including domestic interest rates, the foreign exchange market and upcoming events.

In this week's Markets Outlook

Monday 31 August 2015

Borrowing Our Way To Recession?

As each day passes, the likelihood of our alternative scenario, of an economy stumbling to near-recession, increases. Last week we lowered our GDP forecasts to cater for an expected drop in export volumes associated with lower dairy production (both weather and price related). As a consequence, our central forecast for annual GDP growth now troughs at around 1.7%. This is accompanied by a significant pick up in the unemployment rate exacerbated by strong migration inflows not being met by job growth. 

Read the full Markets Outlook