BNZ Markets Today
There is a modest risk-off tone in the air, with US equities weaker, US Treasury yields lower, credit spreads wider and oil prices weaker. Currency movements haven’t been affected by the risk-off move, with the USD broadly weaker overnight. The NZD and AUD have been the best performers over the past 24 hours, with higher rates post the NZ CPI supporting a move for the NZD above 0.59, which has been sustained overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
Global bond market remained under pressure. US treasuries yields made fresh highs for the year which constrained equity market performance. The S&P was marginally lower in early afternoon trade, with limited rebound from recent weakness, despite trading at one-month lows. The VIX gauge of US stock market volatility remained elevated reflecting the uncertain geopolitical backdrop. In currency markets, the US dollar was confined to a choppy range. Asian currencies were in focus after the PBOC set a weaker daily reference rate for the yuan and the yen was volatile amid intervention concerns.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets continue to trade with a cautious tone, with Israel vowing to retaliate against Iran’s weekend attack. US equities are down close to 1% and oil prices are barely lower, with Brent crude about USD90. US Treasury yields rose to fresh 2024 highs, with much stronger than expected US retail sales being a factor. The USD has been well supported, with the yen, NZD and AUD notable underperformers, weakening to fresh lows.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk aversion gripped global assets markets into the end of last week amid rising geopolitical tensions. There were growing concerns that Iran could launch a retaliatory attack on Israel following the air strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria. Over the weekend, Iran’s military seized an Israeli-linked container ship, and launched drones and missiles towards Israel, in a significant escalation of hostilities. These developments will weigh on investor rise appetite as Israel calibrates a response.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets have settled after the shock from the hot CPI print the previous night, helped in part by a more benign PPI print. US Treasury yields show only small movements, with a modestly steeper curve led by a retracement in the 2-year rate. The 10-year Treasury found support with yields just under 4.6% overnight. US equities have bounced back. The ECB’s in-line policy update had little impact on the market, while the NZD and AUD have outperformed with the NZD close to 0.60.
BNZ Markets Today
Stronger than expected US CPI data, contributed to a reassessment about how soon the US Federal Reserve might cut rates, and prompted large moves across global asset markets. US treasury yields surged higher contributing to broad based gains in the US dollar. The higher rates backdrop undermined equites. The S&P fell more than 1% to retest the lows near 5140 from last week.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been another uneventful day in financial markets, with the key move being a steady fall in US Treasury yields after the recent lift to 2024 highs, ahead of tonight’s key US CPI report. US equities are down modestly. Currency moves have been small in net terms although the NZD and AUD remain on the positive side of the ledger as global commodity prices continue to push higher.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been well contained to kick off the week without any key catalysts to perturb pricing. There was a total eclipse of the sun in the US and a total eclipse of the year-to-date highs for US rates overnight, before they settled back down, seeing the 10-year Treasury yield little changed from the NZ close. US equities are slightly higher and the USD is slightly weaker. The NZD and AUD have outperformed a touch, supported by higher commodity prices.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities advanced following labour market data which pointed towards a resilient economy and intensified the debate about when the Federal Reserve might begin to ease monetary policy. The S&P gained more than 1%, rebounding from the weak previous session, which saw the index fall more than 2% from intra-day highs and the VIX spike to the highest level this year.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk appetite is higher ahead of the key US employment report tonight. Equity markets are stronger, with the S&P500 up 0.7% and Treasury yields show little net movement. The USD is broadly weaker, with the NZD and AUD outperforming against a backdrop of rising commodity prices. The NZD is trading at 0.6045, with NZD/AUD falling to a 9-month low around 0.9130.
BNZ Markets Today
After a soggy start to the second quarter, global equities have stabilised. The S&P is up 0.3%, rebounding from earlier losses, after treasury yields retraced following data that pointed to a slowdown in the US services sector. In currency markets, the US dollar fell sharply. Gold prices extended to fresh record highs, above US$2290 per troy ounce, having gained more than 15% since mid-February.
BNZ Markets Today
Global rates are higher, with the US 10-year Treasury yield reaching a fresh high for the year of 4.40%, not helped by oil prices rising to fresh year-to-date highs. Equity investors are showing further signs of fatigue, with the S&P500 close to 1%. Currency moves have been modest but, despite weaker risk appetite, the USD is broadly weaker and the NZD is up slightly overnight to 0.5965.
BNZ Markets Today
Stronger than expected US ISM manufacturing data contributed to sharply higher treasury yields, which supported the dollar, and saw US equities start the new quarter on a soft note. The S&P was down 0.4% in early afternoon trade. Gold prices retreated from record highs near US$2265 per ounce. China equities made strong gains with the CSI 300 Index up more than 1.5%, supported by a rebound in manufacturing activity. The manufacturing PMI rose to the highest level in a year raising hopes the economic recovery gained traction in March.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets are generally higher, in the absence of economic data or fresh catalysts, with investors looking ahead to a speech by influential Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. The S&P is marginally higher in early afternoon trade with earlier gains having faded. Equity indices in Hong Kong and mainland China fell, and have now erased gains for March, as optimism around the policy-driven rally fades. US treasuries moved lower in yield while yen volatility was the focus in currency markets.
BNZ Markets Today
Market price action has been limited by a lack of newsflow. Currency movements has been remarkably well contained, with the NZD steady just over the 0.60 mark. Global equity markets show small gains while global rates also show only small movements.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a typically quiet start to the week without any catalysts to drive markets. Global equity markets show only small changes, global rates have pushed higher, and currency movements have been modest. The NZD has spent the day hovering around 0.60, some support gleaned from the PBoC supporting the yuan after its surprising neglect on Friday.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets were mixed with the S&P ending little changed on the day but 2.3% higher over the course of last week, which was the largest advance in 3 months. In the absence of first tier economic data, US treasuries yields declined, and the US dollar advanced. The Chinese yuan reached the lowest level against the US dollar in 4 months weighing on Australasian currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Last night a surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank got the market’s attention but spillover to the key markets has been limited. European yields have pushed lower against little change in US Treasury yields. USD weakness after the Fed’s policy update yesterday has completely reversed. After a brief look above 0.61, the NZD is trading down to 0.6045. NZD/AUD has fallen below 0.92.
BNZ Markets Today
Market reaction to the Fed’s latest policy update has been well contained so far, with some relief that the Fed still projects three rate cuts this year, albeit sees less scope for lower rates further out. The US Treasuries curve is steeper on the day, driven by lower rates at the short end. The NZD hit a fresh low for the year of 0.6025 last night but is closer to 0.6070 as we go to print.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets were generally subdued as investors looked ahead to the US Federal Reserve rate decision which will help frame the outlook for policy easing this year. The S&P recovered from an earlier dip to be marginally higher in afternoon trade with similar small moves across other major global indices. The Nikkei registered a 0.7% gain after yesterday's widely anticipated Bank of Japan meeting. Treasury yields drifted lower and the US dollar advanced.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a typically quiet start to the week, with investors keeping their powder dry ahead of a busy week. Currency markets barely have a pulse, with tiny net movements, while US rates have pushed up to flirt with fresh highs for the year. US equities are up 0.8%.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets struggled to gain traction as investors look ahead to key central bank meetings this week. The S&P fell 0.7% while major European indices were little changed. In Asia, the Hang Seng fell nearly 1.5% following weak house price data from China and the PBOC’s decision to leave rates on hold and withdraw liquidity. US treasuries ended modestly higher in yield and the US dollar was stable.
BNZ Markets Today
It hasn’t been a very good day for asset markets, with US data showing a stagflationary bias – higher inflation and weaker consumer spending – driving a sell-off of US Treasuries and equities. The 10-year rate is up 10bps on the day after PPI inflation came in strong, while the S&P500 is down 0.5%. Higher US rates have driven broad gains in the USD. Unusually, the yen has been least affected as speculation of a rate hike by the BoJ next week increases. The NZD has fallen to 0.6130 and oil prices are higher on a change in outlook from the International Energy Agency.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets were confined to narrow ranges in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. The S&P was little changed in early afternoon trade and is consolidating near record highs. European stocks edged higher to a new all-time peak while the Hang Seng managed to build upon the 3% rally from the previous session, indicating an improved sentiment towards Chinese equities. US treasury yields moved higher ahead of 30-year supply while currency markets were broadly subdued. Oil prices rose after Ukraine carried out drone strikes on refineries in Russia.
BNZ Markets Today
US rates and the USD are modestly higher after the US CPI report was a touch stronger than consensus, providing no fuel for those looking for an imminent Fed rate cut. Treasury rates are up 5-6bps across the curve. The NZD has slightly underperformed, falling to 0.6150 and down modestly on most crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a typically quiet start to the trading week, more so with focus on the US CPI report due tonight. Heavy supply is weighing on US Treasuries, seeing yields modestly higher, US equities are down slightly, and currency movements are well contained. The NZD is down slightly to 0.6165.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equities retreated into the end of last week. The S&P briefly spiked to a fresh all-time high, just below 5,200 after the US labour market data was released, but subsequently faded to close 0.7% lower. US treasuries settled marginally lower in yield following a volatile period around the data while the US dollar index ended little changed. Bitcoin briefly passed $70,000, to set a new peak, before rapidly retracing. Gold extended its rally and reached a fresh all-time high of $2,195 per ounce.
BNZ Markets Today
US and European equities rose to fresh record highs, with the prospect of rate cuts supporting investor confidence in the market, although global rates only show small movements. The ECB left rates on hold and President Lagarde hinted at a June rate cut. The USD is broadly weaker again, with the NZD lifting to 0.6170, although JPY has outperformed as the BoJ edges closer to a rate hike.
BNZ Markets Today
US Treasury yields are lower, the USD is weaker and US equities have recovered some of yesterday's losses. Chair Powell reiterated the Fed’s view of easier policy later this year in front of lawmakers, while US labour market data were line. The NZD has recovered to 0.6135 and, alongside the AUD has slightly outperformed, seeing most crosses modestly higher.
BNZ Markets Today
A risk-off vibe overhangs the market, with weaker IT stocks a drag on US equity market performance. That has helped support the bond market, with a weaker US ISM services report chiming in, seeing US Treasury yields down 4-6bps for the day. Currency moves have been modest. China’s optimistic 5% growth target did nothing to support commodity currencies, and the NZD is languishing just under the 0.61 mark.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity indices are little changed with investors looking ahead to key economic indicators and comments from Fed officials, including Chair Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, later in the week. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 increased 0.5% and traded above the psychological 40,000 level for the first time. The Nikkei is the best performing major stock index in 2024, having gained 20% in local currency terms, and 13% in US dollar terms. This compares with an 8% rise in the S&P.
BNZ Markets Today
Positive risk sentiment propelled global equity indices to fresh record closes at the end of last week. The S&P traded above 5,100 and the Eurostoxx 50, looked past stronger than expected inflation data, to eke out a new all-time high. Treasury yields and the US dollar fell following weak manufacturing data and WTI crude prices rose above US$80 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been plenty of news to digest over the past 24 hours. In-line US PCE deflator data came as a relief and triggered a rally in the bond market, seeing US Treasury yields lower across the curve. US equities are flat. The NZD is little changed from this time yesterday, at 0.6080, while a hawkish speech by a BoJ board member has seen a sustained lift in the yen.
BNZ Markets Today
Global assets markets are little changed overnight in the absence of first tier economic data. Investors are looking ahead to key inflation data in the US and big European economies which could influence the expected path for interest rates. The S&P is marginally lower in early afternoon trade continuing the sideways price action from recent sessions. Global bond markets are stable while the US dollar advanced. Bitcoin surged above $60,000 for the first time since November 2021 extending gains to over 40% in 2024.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been another uneventful trading session, with flat US equities, small changes in US Treasury yields and currency markets well contained. Focus today will be on the RBNZ’s MPS where there is strong consensus for no change in rates, but nervousness that impatience by the MPC could trigger another rate hike.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to a busy week, with little newsflow. The NZD and AUD have kicked off the week on a softer note, the former sustaining the modest fall seen during NZ trading hours, as traders pared long positions ahead of the RBNZ’s MPS. Global rates are higher, led by Europe, seeing the US 10-year rate up 6bps overnight versus the NZ close. US equities are flat.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity indices ended little changed on Friday after a week where major global indices in Japan, Europe and North America reach record highs. There was limited economic data or other catalysts to provide direction with the S&P confined to a narrow range. Global bond yields moved lower, and currency markets were little changed.
BNZ Markets Today
Equity markets have been breaking records over the past 24 hours across Japan, the euro area and US. Nvidia’s surge has helped the S&P500 power up 1.8% for the session so far. US Treasury yields have ticked up to fresh highs for the year as the market continues to pare back expected Fed easing this year. Net currency movements have been small. The NZD rose up through 0.62 and currently sits just below the figure. On the crosses, the NZD has pushed up to fresh highs against AUD and JPY.
BNZ Markets Today
There were limited catalysts for global asset markets overnight in the absence of first-tier economic data or fresh guidance from policy makers. The S&P is marginally lower in early afternoon trade as investors look ahead to Nvidia results due after market close. The company is at the vanguard of AI given its chips are used in the hardware for artificial intelligence. Treasury yields are marginally higher, and the US dollar is little changed.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are weaker, Treasury yields are lower and the USD is broadly weaker. There aren’t any obvious factors at play other than all these represent a retreat from the recent trend. Despite lower risk appetite, the NZD has outperformed, pushing up to 0.6175 and it is stronger on the crosses, particularly against the CAD, following much weaker than expected Canadian CPI data.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a very quiet start to the week with the US public holiday and with little newsflow. Future markets for Treasuries and equities show small changes. Currency movements have been modest, with the NZD’s 0.3% gain to 0.6145 from last week’s close making it the top performer.
BNZ Markets Today
US producer price inflation data surprised to the topside which led to reduced expectations for easing by the US Federal Reserve. US treasury yields reached the highest level for this year. The higher yield backdrop provided a headwind for equities with the S&P falling 0.5% during the session to end the week little changed. The Nikkei continued its stellar run. It is up 15% year to date and is just 1% below its all-time high reached in December 1989. Credit spreads were stable near the tightest levels in 2-years and the US dollar ended little changed on the major crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
Overnight, US Treasury yields declined after much weaker than expected US retail sales data for January, but the move was fully retracted and the 10-year rate is now back at 4.23%, little changed from the NZ close. The USD shows a broadly based fall for the day, helping the NZD push back over 0.61. GBP and JPY have showed smaller gains against the USD, not helped by weaker than expected GDP data which put the UK and Japan’s economy both in technical recession for 2H23.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. The S&P gained 0.4% after falling more than 1% in the previous session. Treasury yields retraced from the highest level this year and the US dollar was softer against major currencies. Oil prices fell after US crude inventories increased by the most since November.
BNZ Markets Today
Higher than expected US CPI data rocked the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts. The data drove weaker equity markets, an 11-14bps lift in US Treasury yields out to 10-years, and broadly based USD strength. The NZD is down 1.3% from this time yesterday to 0.6060 and weaker on most crosses, with a fall in 2-year inflation expectations adding to the weakness, as the market pared back the chance of another RBNZ rate hike.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to the week, with a large number of Asian markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays and little newsflow. US equity markets have edged higher, extending the record-breaking run, US Treasury yields have traded in a tight range and in currency markets the NZD has lost a little air after last week’s outperformance.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P closed at a record high above the psychological 5,000 level on Friday. The index has made 5 consecutive weeks of gains and is close to 5% higher since the start of the year. In Japan, the Nikkei traded above 37,000 for the first time in 34 years. This is 5% below the all-time high reached back in December 1989. Foreign investors have been increasing exposure to Japanese stocks and have added US$19 billion since the start of the year continuing a trend from the past 18 months. US treasury yields ended higher with a brief period of volatility around the release of CPI revisions. The US dollar was broadly stable against major currencies though both the NZD and AUD moved higher.
BNZ Markets Today
In an uneventful overnight session, global rates have pushed higher, ahead of a chunky 30-year Treasury auction and some nerves regarding US CPI revisions due tonight. US equities are flat, with the S&P500 still unable to break the 5000 mark after getting within a fraction of a point yesterday. The USD is broadly stronger, dragging the NZD back below 0.61, the yen has underperformed and NZD/AUD is getting close to 0.94.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities remained well underpinned in the absence of first tier economic data. The S&P reached another record intraday high and is closing in on the psychological 5,000 level. Markets continue to watch for any potential fallout from the US regional banking sector as shares in NYCB resumed losses. Meanwhile optimism towards China equities faded in the absence of additional details from policy makers about a support program for onshore markets. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) reversed an earlier 1.5% gain to close 1% lower.
BNZ Markets Today
Overnight, there has been little news but the US 10-year year Treasury yield has fallen modestly after the hefty two-day sell-off that followed the blockbuster payrolls report on Friday. US equities are flat. The NZD and AUD have found some support, helped by a slightly stronger yuan on speculation of more policy support for the beleaguered Chinese sharemarket. The NZD is trading around 0.6075, off yesterday’s fresh year-to-date low.
BNZ Markets Today
A large upside surprise to US payrolls pushed back the prospect of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve until later in the year and contributed to higher global bonds yields and a stronger US dollar. Equities managed to look past the rise in interest rates, with the S&P reaching another all-time high, as optimism about the economy outweighed the prospect of rates remaining at restrictive levels for longer. Economic activity appears robust in the first quarter. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast stood at 4.2% on an annualised basis before the data release.
BNZ Markets Today
In the wake of the Fed’s policy update yesterday and the regional banking “scare”, US Treasury yields have pushed down further to fresh lows for the year. Benign US economic data supported Treasuries, and drove a downturn in the USD, helping the NZD recover from overnight lows. The Bank of England removed its tightening bias but didn’t rock the market.
BNZ Markets Today
Weaker technology stocks contributed to a fall in US equities as the market looks ahead to the FOMC this morning (NZT). The Federal Reserve is expected to transition away from a tightening bias and prepare the way for easier policy in coming meetings. A plunge in the shares of New York Community Bank, which bought the failed Signature Bank last year, reignited concerns about US regional banks and impacted market sentiment. Global bond yields moved lower underpinned by softer than expected US data and signs of easing inflation in Europe.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P 500 fluctuated near its all-time high as investors looked ahead to results from major technology companies, Microsoft and Alphabet in addition to the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate decision of the year tomorrow morning (NZT). Higher than expected job openings from the JOLTs survey underpinned US treasury yields and the US dollar was little changed.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of an eventful week that includes policy meetings from the US Fed and BoE, key global economic releases, earnings reports from some of the US market’s magnificent seven, and the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement. On paper, the calendar doesn’t come any more eventful than this.
BNZ Markets Today
Friday ended on a muted note with an insignificant fall in US equities, a small lift in US Treasury yields and only modest currency moves. That wrapped up a week with only small net moves overall for bonds and currency markets, while there was a bit more action in equity markets, with the S&P500 putting on a third consecutive week of 1+% gains. The NZD finished the week just below 0.61. The week ahead looks more exciting with plenty of event risk to digest.
BNZ Markets Today
Overnight, there was only a modest market reaction to stronger than expected US GDP figures and the ECB policy update. President Lagarde didn’t significantly push back on market pricing for an early rate cut, seeing European rates and the EUR lower, but not materially so. US Treasury rates are slightly lower, with signs of inflation well under control despite the resilient economic backdrop. The NZD is tracking just over 0.61, little changed from the NZ close.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk appetite improved overnight, supported by a surprise easing of policy in China, the message from global PMIs, and the Bank of Canada removing its tightening bias. Equity markets are stronger, bond markets are well contained, the USD is broadly weaker and Brent crude has pushed up above USD80 per barrel. The NZD is up 1% from this time yesterday to 0.6130.
BNZ Markets Today
There was subdued activity across global markets in the absence of first tier economic releases. The S&P 500 was little changed in mid-afternoon trade as investors digest mixed corporate results and look ahead for further information on the outlook for interest rates. Stocks in Hong Kong surged amid signs that policy makers would step up support. The US dollar made broad based gains and global bond yields moved higher.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a typically quiet start to the week, with little news flow. But that hasn’t stopped the record-breaking run of US equities to continue. Global bond rates have pushed lower, and currency markets only show small movements, the NZD seeing some support just under 0.61.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended last week on a positive note with the S&P advancing 1.2% to 4840, a new record high close. The move higher was underpinned by gains in technology companies. The index has now fully unwound the ~25% drawdown which began in January 2022 and reached a trough in October the same year. US treasury yields are mixed and the US dollar is little changed.