BNZ Confidence Survey

Your thoughts on the state of the ecomony.

Will the economy will get better, worse or stay the same over the next 12 months? Each month, our Chief Economist, Tony Alexander, asks this question to subscribers of his Weekly Overview. Read Tony's summary of their responses in our latest Confidence Survey – or download a past issue.

2011 BNZ Confidence Surveys

Tuesday 8 May 2012

Sentiment Eases But Still Firm

A net 22% of respondents to our May BNZ Confidence Survey indicated that they expect the economy to be better in a year’s time than it is now. This is down slightly from a net 34% positive in April but almost equal to the average for the past 12 months of a net 24% optimistic. As such it suggests that as yet there is no solid reason for expecting the economy’s growth rate to lift much above the 1.4% achieved over 2011 although when we allow for the special factor of Christchurch rebuilding our expectation of above 2% growth in a few quarters remains.

Past surveys

 

7 February 2012 - Sentiment Improves Marginally PDF 86KB

Our first Confidence Survey for 2012 has found a small rise in the net percent of respondents expecting things to improve over the next 12 months to 13% from 3% in the first week of December. The result is the second improvement in a row and is in line with some generally improving indicators offshore. While respondents continue to express concern about factors such as the delay in Christchurch rebuilding, consumers unwilling to spend, compliance costs and the high NZ dollar, the results overall suggest slowly improving economic growth is probable this year.

6 December 2011 - Sentiment Steady PDF 85KB

Our last BNZ Confidence Survey for 2011 has found that a net 3.2% of the 439 respondents expect the economy to improve over the coming year. This is essentially unchanged from a net 2.2% pessimistic in November and 6.% optimistic in early-October. Sentiment then has been broadly steady for three months after falling sharply in October from the May to September period.

8 November 2011 - Net Pessimism Returns – But Only Just PDF 65KB

This monthly BNZ Confidence Survey has revealed a sizeable decline in optimism about the strength of the economy in a year's time. Only a net 6.9% of the 391 respondents expect improvement, down from 36.3% in September.

10 October 2011 - Confidence Almost Disappears PDF 76KB

This monthly BNZ Confidence Survey has revealed a sizeable decline in optimism about the strength of the economy in a year's time. Only a net 6.9% of the 391 respondents expect improvement, down from 36.3% in September.

5 September 2011 - Confidence holds high PDF 91KB

This monthly BNZ Confidence Survey has revealed a sizeable lift in confidence about the state of the economy in a year's time.

8 August 2011 - Confidence Falls To Four Month Low PDF 391KB

This monthly BNZ Confidence Survey has found that only a net 22% of respondents now expect the economy to improve in the coming year compared with a net 45% in early July and a record net 57% in early June.

11 July 2011 - Confidence holds high PDF 70KB

This month our BNZ Confidence Survey has found that a net 45% of respondents expect the economy will get better in a year's time.

6 June 2011 - Confidence Reaches A Record PDF 75KB

Our monthly BNZ Confidence Survey has found that a very strong net 57% of respondents expect that the economy will be better in a year's time.

9 May 2011 - Confidence at 18 month high PDF 71KB

The results by industry show good sentiment in farming, agricultural servicing, forestry and manufacturing for export, with improvements in sentiment evident for accountants, construction, residential and non-residential real estate, and even tourism.

11 April 2011 - Confidence recovers PDF 86KB

Will the economy will get better, worse or stay the same over the next 12 months? Each month, our Chief Economist, Tony Alexander, asks this question to subscribers of his Weekly Overview. Read Tony's summary of their responses in our latest Confidence Survey – or download a past issue.

7 March 2011 - Confidence Falls To A Two Year Low PDF 98KB

Following the earthquake in Christchurch on February 22 confidence about the economy has fallen to a two year low with a net 20% of the 456 respondents in our monthly BNZ Confidence Survey indicating they expect the economy to get worse over the coming year. This was down from a net 22% expecting improvement in the early February survey and 35% expressing net positive sentiment 12 months ago. Approximately 68 of the 349 submitted comments mentioned the earthquake and some of those comments were in terms of higher business activity due to the refugee effect or immediate recovery/emergency reconstruction effect.

7 February 2011 - Confidence Holding Steady PDF 99KB

Our first BNZ Confidence Survey for 2011 has shown that sentiment regarding where the economy will be in 12 months time is essentially the same as where it was at the time of the last survey two months ago. A net 22% of respondents expect improvement compared with 18% in December, and 36.8% a year ago. Sentiment is above the average since the survey started in 2005 of -14% and suggestive of good economic growth over 2011.